Lots of good points but here is what I think is the most salient one:
I am watching the savings rate. The U.S. personal saving rate (personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income) has spiked:
June 2020 19.0%
May 2020 23.2 %
April 2020 32.2 %
March 2020 12.6 %
The spike in card prices started after 2-3 months of savings. Those who are still employed and not sick were socking away money at a record pace. Add that to boredom and flatlined leisure spending and you have a perfect condition for a price spike. No doubt that spike has been fueled by social media (like that Gary V character) and people with a financial interest in stoking a FOMO response.
So the question is what to do. To me it is like a housing bubble: if you are OK with taking the profit and moving into an apartment, sell the house and hang onto the money until the inevitable correction. If you like your house and don't need to cash in, forget about it. I am in the middle. I've sold a handful of highly appreciated cards that I liked but that were just too attractively priced to keep (I replaced one with a lower grade copy that cost me a tiny fraction of the sale price because I like the card). If the July data continues the move closer to the American historical average of 7% I would expect the acceleration of prices to halt and the drops to start. I will probably list most of the highly appreciated cards at that point, cash them in, and wait to repurchase them lower. If that doesn't happen, well, OK, I have the cash. If does happen, then even better. I effectively rented my card to someone for a period.
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08-17-2020, 12:24 PM
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