Any silver stackers on the board?

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

How I acquire “free” gold and silver using the gold to silver ratio (GSR).

I was recently having a discussion with an investor friend of mine about how I acquire “free” gold and silver using the GSR and he asked me to describe the process. So, I did, but I also thought I would share it here for anyone that might be interested.

What is the GSR? The GSR is basically how many ounces of silver it takes to make one ounce of gold (in terms of dollars). It’s simple division: spot price of gold/spot price of silver. As I’m typing this, the spot price of gold is $1945.20 an ounce and the spot price of silver is $27.13 an ounce. So, it takes 72 ounces of silver to equal once ounce of gold (actually 71.7:1, but I’m going to use round numbers for my examples).

Gold and silver both tend to move in the same direction at the same time. If gold is up, silver will mostly like be as well. If gold is down, silver will mostly like be as well. But they don’t go up and down at the same rate. The GSR does fluctuate over time. Silver is mined at a ratio of 8:1 over gold. For every 8 ounces of silver pulled from the ground, there is only 1 ounce of gold. You’d think this ratio would be reflective in the price, right? Wrong.

The first recording of the GSR can be traced back to the Roman Empire and was set at a ratio of 12:1. It pretty much stayed the same for hundreds of years until the Coinage Act (Mint Act) of 1792 where the US government set the ratio at 15:1. The ratio fluctuated throughout the 20th century due to manipulation and FDR’s gold confiscation from US citizens (also known as the Gold Reserve Act of 1934). However, the average GSR ratio was 47:1 throughout the 20th century. In the 21st century (the last 20 years), the GSR has ranged mainly between 50:1 and 70:1. The lowest was 32:1 in 2011 and the highest was 125:1 just within the last few months.

Why am I telling you the history? It’s important to know in understanding how the process works. For my example, I am going to use the dates of March 17th, 2020 and today’s date of August 20th, 2020. On March 17th, 2020, silver closed at $12.77 an ounce and gold closed at $1537.79 an ounce. The GSR ratio on that day was 120:1. When the GSR gap is far apart like that, you want to trade your gold for silver. As the GSR narrows, you want to trade your silver back for gold. It’s a process of trading back and forth as the GSR expands and contracts. So, here’s how it works. On that day, you could have taken an ounce of gold to a coin shop or bullion dealer and traded it for 120 ounces of silver. You would hold the silver until the GSR narrows back to your favor. That is today! Remember, as I said earlier, today’s GSR is 72:1. Continuing in my example, you still have the 120 ounces of silver that you traded for back in March, but today you’re going to trade it back in for gold. So, you take 72 ounces of silver back to the coin shop or bullion dealer and trade it for 1 ounce of gold. So, now you still have the 1 ounce of gold that you originally had, but you also have an additional 48 ounces of silver left over (the 120 ounces of silver that you originally traded for minus the 72 ounces that you just traded). Or, if you wanted to trade all 120 ounces of silver, you could get approximately 1.7 ounces of gold. Either way, you’ve earned “free” metals with only a little trading.

And this is how I acquire “free” gold and silver using the GSR ratio. It’s just a process of trading back and forth when the GSR is in your favor. Nobody can time to GSR just right to maximize the best trade, but I think you can get pretty close. I actually traded some silver for gold last week when the GSR was 75:1. If I had waited a few days, I would have come out a little more ahead but, like I said, nobody can time it perfectly. Still, I’m happy with my trade. When the GSR widens, I’ll trade the gold back for silver. And that’s how it’s done.

And always remember the Golden Rule: The one with the gold…rules.

What are the transaction fees involved in this?
Original purchase fee
trading fee
selling fee
other fees/taxes?

Have you figured the % increase you need to break even after ALL fees? Sounds like it could be a great thing once all the fees are understood.

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by bnorth

What are the transaction fees involved in this?
Original purchase fee
trading fee
selling fee
other fees/taxes?

Have you figured the % increase you need to break even after ALL fees? Sounds like it could be a great thing once all the fees are understood.

There are no transaction fees, but you would need to find a dealer that's willing to trade with you on an (fairly) even level. And you would need to already own some metals or purchase them. If someone wanted to do this and didn't own any metals right now, I would suggest buying (and holding) gold given the current GSR ratio...and just wait for the ratio to widen and trade that gold for silver.

If one does buy gold, I recommend buying in fractional amounts. Let's say you wanted to purchase 1 ounce of gold. Rather than buying a 1 ounce gold coin, maybe buy (2) 1/4 ounce coins and (5) 1/10 ounce coins. You'll spend a little more money buying like that, but it gives you more trading or selling options. For example, if you decided you want to sell or trade some of your gold and you only have a 1 ounce gold coin, you have to give up all your gold (it's in the form of only 1 coin). But if your gold is in fractional amounts and you just wanted to sell maybe a half ounce of gold, well then you have a couple different options.

I can't speak for other states, but Texas has no sales tax on bullion purchases (that even includes junk silver). I think some states offer no sales tax, but at a certain dollar amount.

[vintagetoppsguy]

I am really mad right now. So, I went to a coin shop today, a place where I've done a lot of business before (probable even Houston's most reputable coin shop), and I bought 10 ounces of silver - 10 1oz silver bars. 5 of the bars are from Sunshine Minting, the other 5 from Scottsdale Mint - both reputable bullion mints.

When I got home, I was going to put them away and, like I always do, I tested them first. There are a lot of ways to test silver, some destructive, some non-destructive. For me, the first test is with a rare earth magnet. If it passes this test, the other tests aren't necessary (at least for me). The Sunshine bars were fine. But when I tested the Scottsdale bars, they failed the magnet test. So I weighed them, but they weighed correctly. I still had the other bars in front of me, so I did a visual dimensional inspection. Failed! The bars in question were much thicker than the real ones. This explained the weight being correct.

At this point, comes the destructive testing. If it's not silver, no harm done because it's worthless anyway. If it is silver, it will blemish the silver. However, it really doesn't matter on bullion bars because they have no collectability (for the most part) - the value is in the weight of the silver. If it were a piece of jewelry or a rare coin, that would be different. So, for testing, you use a solution of nitric and muriatic acid. The solution is an orangish-brown and you just put a couple of drops on the item and wait about 30 seconds. If it's real, the solution will remain the same color. If it's fake, the solution will turn blue. The longer it remains on the item, the bluer it gets. Well, this one was so blue that it was singing BB King songs.

I've bought a lot of silver in my day and I've never been burned, but there is a first time for everything. I'm not going to disclose the name of the shop just yet. I don't think they intentionally sold me fake silver, they just didn't check it when they purchased it. I think they'll swap it out for 5 more bars and I'll be happy and just consider the matter closed. But if they give me any grief I will leave them a negative review on every website I can, and file a claim with the BBB.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

I am really mad right now. So, I went to a coin shop today, a place where I've done a lot of business before (probable even Houston's most reputable coin shop), and I bought 10 ounces of silver - 10 1oz silver bars. 5 of the bars are from Sunshine Minting, the other 5 from Scottsdale Mint - both reputable bullion mints.

When I got home, I was going to put them away and, like I always do, I tested them first. There are a lot of ways to test silver, some destructive, some non-destructive. For me, the first test is with a rare earth magnet. If it passes this test, the other tests aren't necessary (at least for me). The Sunshine bars were fine. But when I tested the Scottsdale bars, they failed the magnet test. So I weighed them, but they weighed correctly. I still had the other bars in front of me, so I did a visual dimensional inspection. Failed! The bars in question were much thicker than the real ones. This explained the weight being correct.

At this point, comes the destructive testing. If it's not silver, no harm done because it's worthless anyway. If it is silver, it will blemish the silver. However, it really doesn't matter on bullion bars because they have no collectability (for the most part) - the value is in the weight of the silver. If it were a piece of jewelry or a rare coin, that would be different. So, for testing, you use a solution of nitric and muriatic acid. The solution is an orangish-brown and you just put a couple of drops on the item and wait about 30 seconds. If it's real, the solution will remain the same color. If it's fake, the solution will turn blue. The longer it remains on the item, the bluer it gets. Well, this one was so blue that it was singing BB King songs.

I've bought a lot of silver in my day and I've never been burned, but there is a first time for everything. I'm not going to disclose the name of the shop just yet. I don't think they intentionally sold me fake silver, they just didn't check it when they purchased it. I think they'll swap it out for 5 more bars and I'll be happy and just consider the matter closed. But if they give me any grief I will leave them a negative review on every website I can, and file a claim with the BBB.

That sucks, how much apiece are 1oz silver bars now?

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by bnorth

That sucks, how much apiece are 1oz silver bars now?

Silver is right at $25. But the premiums are huge. I paid $31/bar - $310 total.

Silver is really hard to find right now. When I got there, there were no bars at all in the case (of any weight), but they did have a lot of silver eagles (which carry even more of a premium). I asked the salesman if he had any bars put away since I didn't see any in the case. He asked me what I was looking for and I told him either 2 5oz bars or 10 1oz bars. He brought out the 10 bars that I mentioned above.

They've got the digital machines that tells them real quick if it's silver or not. I'd love to have one, but I don't want to spend $5K (or more) for something that I'm good at detecting myself. I guess I'm mad because they didn't even test them. It only takes a second with one of those machines.

[Peter_Spaeth]

So what are the fake ones made of? And are you saying that the Mint sold fake bars, or someone sold the shop fake bars that looked like they were from the Mint?

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

So what are the fake ones made of? And are you saying that the Mint sold fake bars, or someone sold the shop fake bars that looked like they were from the Mint?

They're fakes coming in from China, not the mint. They're made of different metals, but I'm pretty sure these particular ones are made of brass. Each metal has a certain clang sound when you tap them together. These sound like brass. It possible that whoever sold them to the shop might not have known they were fake either. They could have bought them on eBay or elsewhere with the assumption that they were real.