Do the prices on vintage ever go down?

kailes2872 · #1 08-30-2020, 09:16 AM

I've been back in the game since late 2012. From what I have witnessed - and it is over simplified - Mantle and tier one stars have steadily gone up (Mays, Aaron, Clemente, and some HOF rookies). 2nd & 3rd tier stars have remained relatively flat. Commons have remained flat or down as more and more people are moving toward star collecting and away from set collecting.

What surprises me the most is that "rarer" cards such as the 54 Bowman Williams and #68 '59 Fleer Williams have not seen increases.

But a PSA 6 '69 Mantle was a $180 card in 2014. It is consistently over $300 now. And for the most part, the PSA 6 price for tier 1 stars in 2015 is now the PSA 5 price and in some cases the PSA 4 price.

Tyruscobb · #2 08-30-2020, 09:41 AM

Here is the simplistic analysis, as there are multiple factors at play - Supply and demand affect vintage card prices just like any other good. The 12+ year bull market has increased disposable income. The increased disposable income has brought more people into or back into the hobby, as well as increased budgets for the existing hobby members.

The increased collector numbers have increased vintage�s demand. The increased demand has skyrocketed prices. That is the macroeconomic analysis.

conor912 · #3 08-30-2020, 01:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kailes2872

I've been back in the game since late 2012. From what I have witnessed - and it is over simplified - Mantle and tier one stars have steadily gone up (Mays, Aaron, Clemente, and some HOF rookies). 2nd & 3rd tier stars have remained relatively flat. Commons have remained flat or down as more and more people are moving toward star collecting and away from set collecting.

What surprises me the most is that "rarer" cards such as the 54 Bowman Williams and #68 '59 Fleer Williams have not seen increases.

But a PSA 6 '69 Mantle was a $180 card in 2014. It is consistently over $300 now. And for the most part, the PSA 6 price for tier 1 stars in 2015 is now the PSA 5 price and in some cases the PSA 4 price.

I would tend do agree with this. Commons and low grade cards in general are falling by the wayside. Set collectors are a dying breed. There are a lot more flippers in the game now, too....and higher grade cards sell easier with a higher return so they are more sought after.

G1911 · #4 08-30-2020, 02:56 PM

I can't think of a time the general vintage market has gone down and stayed down for more than a few months. Even in the recession prices rebounded quickly. Some individual cards will fluctuate, like the 'buyers groups' items, caramel cards a few years back. Usually it is more of a correction to a ridiculous short term price jump than an unexpected seemingly-random decline.

As set collectors are becoming increasingly rare and the generation that has a personal nostalgia for the heavily produced Topps/Bowman sets begin to leave the living in greater number each year, the prices for much of the post-war vintage cards not of major super HOF's may well decline. The new blood coming in is mostly focused on flipping and short term 'investing' of cards promoted among the Discord groups, which are the graded big stars.

In general, pre-war is pretty safe I think. Outside of T206/1933 Goudey and a few others, production was low enough that a very large collector base does not need to be maintained to maintain value, and the most common sets are the most popular anyways.

JollyElm · #5 08-30-2020, 04:30 PM

Do the prices on vintage ever go down?

Yes, a month after I buy anything, I will find the same card listed on ebay for a fraction of what I paid for it.

donmuth · #6 08-30-2020, 09:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JollyElm

Do the prices on vintage ever go down?

Yes, a month after I buy anything, I will find the same card listed on ebay for a fraction of what I paid for it.

Please go buy a T206 Cobb Bat Off with Polar Bear back then.

I had started saving for a T206 Cobb Bat Off awhile back and the prices have basically doubled on that card...

bigred1 · #7 08-30-2020, 09:24 PM

I love my T3s but not much there, other than super star cards, and they dont even come up frequently

davidb · #8 08-30-2020, 10:09 PM

I started collecting one original "playing days" card of all HOF players (-4 currently) in 1994 and have seen solid increases over the last 25 years. As stated by others, the Wagner's, Cobb's, Ruth's and Gehrig's have witnessed strong ROI and lately even the low grade T205, T206 and T207 HOF players have appreciated greatly.

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