Anyone hesitant to buy now?

Oscar_Stanage · #1 10-01-2020, 04:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

"The temptation to sell was too strong for me I unloaded my basketball rookies Alcindor, Chamberlin and West and glad I did I can't see them going up any more. I am already seeing them going back down."

The latter is being proven by the evidence.

Not sure this is evidence of anything other than rising prices - does not make it a bubble. I do not think the collectors who jumped in because of COVID are leaving. I never bought a basketball or hockey card in my life until June. Given, I am not buying any bball/hockey north of $100, but I am not going to leave collecting when we get a vaccine. I think most of the new money in the hobby is coming from people like me. The people paying $100s of thousands for Trouts are a different breed - they are traders, and will be on to the next thing at some point.

Exhibitman · #2 10-01-2020, 11:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wid_Conroy

Not sure this is evidence of anything other than rising prices - does not make it a bubble.

Well yeah, actually it does. Prices going up very fast then falling is literally the definition of a price bubble inflating and deflating.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wid_Conroy

I do not think the collectors who jumped in because of COVID are leaving. I never bought a basketball or hockey card in my life until June. Given, I am not buying any bball/hockey north of $100, but I am not going to leave collecting when we get a vaccine. I think most of the new money in the hobby is coming from people like me. The people paying $100s of thousands for Trouts are a different breed - they are traders, and will be on to the next thing at some point.

A bubble on certain cards and increased interest are not mutually exclusive. I think a price bubble actually attracts new collectors. I hope people stay with other sports cards. Heck, as a young collector I always collected baseball, football, basketball and hockey cards. It wasn't until my adult years that it started to get too expensive to keep it up. I've gone back to it the last decade or so, I just stay away from slabs for all but the most expensive cards.

Basketball is an especially interesting one to get into because there were so few sets from 1950-1970. It is 'doable' for a new collector.

Oscar_Stanage · #3 10-02-2020, 06:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Well yeah, actually it does. Prices going up very fast then falling is literally the definition of a price bubble inflating and deflating.

yes of course, but they have not deflated. Thats my point. for the reasons i stated, I don't think 70s basketball is the same as Trout, etc.., the buyers are real and are here to stay. As of now there is no evidence this is a bubble, just rising prices. Happy you sold your cards at a really high price, but assuming you are able to buy them back at half the price is simply speculation.

Huysmans · #4 10-02-2020, 06:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wid_Conroy

yes of course, but they have not deflated. Thats my point. for the reasons i stated, I don't think 70s basketball is the same as Trout, etc.., the buyers are real and are here to stay. As of now there is no evidence this is a bubble, just rising prices. Happy you sold your cards at a really high price, but assuming you are able to buy them back at half the price is simply speculation.

Stating that "the buyers are real and are here to stay" with no evidence whatsoever to verify such a claim, is speculation as well...

Exhibitman · #5 10-02-2020, 07:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wid_Conroy

yes of course, but they have not deflated. Thats my point. for the reasons i stated, I don't think 70s basketball is the same as Trout, etc.., the buyers are real and are here to stay. As of now there is no evidence this is a bubble, just rising prices. Happy you sold your cards at a really high price, but assuming you are able to buy them back at half the price is simply speculation.

No, actually it is fact. Look at the thread in the basketball card section where several of us have been tracking prices on various cards. Major card after card is down substantially from the high prices of a month or two ago. The 1961 Fleer Wilt Chamberlain IA PSA 7 had three sales in August over $2,000 and a peak sale at nearly $3200. If I'd dumped my PSA 7 in August I could now repurchase it around $1200-$1500. In my book a 50% decline in a month after a quadrupling of prices in a few months is a deflating bubble. But let's toss out the $3200 sale as an outlier and go with the two $2;000+ sales from August. Still a 25%-40% drop after a steep rise (the card was a $400 card in April). The Dr. J RC went up to about $10,000 in PSA 8 and is now back down into the $4Ks. The thread cites card after card like that. Now, was basketball undervalued? Sure. But that doesn't diminish what we are seeing in the auction results.

Oscar_Stanage · #6 10-02-2020, 07:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

No, actually it is fact. Look at the thread in the basketball card section where several of us have been tracking prices on various cards. Major card after card is down substantially from the high prices of a month or two ago. The 1961 Fleer Wilt Chamberlain IA PSA 7 had three sales in August over $2,000 and a peak sale at nearly $3200. If I'd dumped my PSA 7 in August I could now repurchase it around $1200-$1500. In my book a 25%-40% decline in a month after a quadrupling of prices in a few months is a deflating bubble. The Dr. J RC went up to about $10,000 in PSA 8 and is now back down into the $4Ks.

then i stand corrected. had no idea prices have fallen by 50% in those cards. First I have heard of it, was not mentioned previously.

Exhibitman · #7 10-02-2020, 07:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wid_Conroy

then i stand corrected. had no idea prices have fallen by 50% in those cards. First I have heard of it, was not mentioned previously.

There are some good guys in the basketball section; might wanna check in over there.

Arazi4442 · #8 10-02-2020, 08:14 AM

It's a very interesting time. If basketball is on the downturn of its bubble, looks like soccer may be at its peak. Pele, Messi, Ronaldo cards are 10X or more of prices at the beginning of the year. Like all of this spike, you can't be sure what sales/auctions are actually paid for but a $10k to $120k jump in a few months is tough to miss. Gotta imagine those prices retract very soon as well.