Conundrum Looming

steve B · #1 10-08-2020, 11:14 AM

I've expressed this before, what makes a top collectible in any field isn't any of the things that are usually thought of, at least not on their own.

This hobby has a number of great examples, the 52 Mantle being one of them.
Is it "rare"? Not exactly. It's a double print, so as part of the 52 high numbers it's one of the three most common.
So why don't any of the other 52 high numbers even get close?

It's got all the other factors.

It's not common, but also not so rare that someone who wants one can't find one.
The subject is very popular.
There's even a great story, that the 52 high numbers are "rare" because the remainders were dumped in the harbor/river/ocean

And that really all it takes.
It doesn't hurt that the set it's from is a great looking set.
Or that his popularity is in NY, one of the larger cities.

It shares those things with some of the other very expensive collectibles at the top of their respective hobbies.
The Wagner T206 of course
The inverted "Jenny" airmail stamp
The "CIA invert stamp -- although less so, because it's newer and not a particularly good looking stamp.
The 1804 Silver dollar
And maybe the 1913 liberty nickel (although it IS rare, it also has the great story/mystery)

jchcollins · #2 10-08-2020, 02:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by steve B

There's even a great story, that the 52 high numbers are "rare" because the remainders were dumped in the harbor/river/ocean

I would agree it's a great story, but it's dubious at best. There are Topps employees who said they never heard tell of that from Mr. Berger until he was a much older man, and even then it was a wildly inconsistent story when he told it. Supposedly someone went to the trouble to track down a few other Topps employees who had been there when the event was supposed to have happened (1960 or so) - and none of them remembered anything like that at all.

I suppose we'll never know for sure - which of course makes the story attractive because it was possible - just adding to the mystique of the '52 Mantle.

vintagebaseballcardguy · #3 10-08-2020, 03:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jchcollins

I would agree it's a great story, but it's dubious at best. There are Topps employees who said they never heard tell of that from Mr. Berger until he was a much older man, and even then it was a wildly inconsistent story when he told it. Supposedly someone went to the trouble to track down a few other Topps employees who had been there when the event was supposed to have happened (1960 or so) - and none of them remembered anything like that at all.

I suppose we'll never know for sure - which of course makes the story attractive because it was possible - just adding to the mystique of the '52 Mantle.

Wouldn't it be great if they found a bunch of '52 highs just sitting in a warehouse somewhere? Release those babies, flood the market, and drive down the price so that people like me can afford one! Of course those who have forked over big money for #311 wouldn't be too happy about that, and I couldn't blame them.

Volod · #4 10-08-2020, 06:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vintagebaseballcardguy

Wouldn't it be great if they found a bunch of '52 highs just sitting in a warehouse somewhere? Release those babies, flood the market, and drive down the price so that people like me can afford one! Of course those who have forked over big money for #311 wouldn't be too happy about that, and I couldn't blame them.

Hmmm, a warehouse that no one had thought to enter in sixty years - I wish there were one of those in my neighborhood. Even if such a thing could happen, how many new cases of high numbers would be required to drop the asking price of those cards? The only such find that comes to mind is the hoard of Topps Red Backs that someone uncovered back in the '80's, and I don't recall that the market value of that issue was much affected by it, perhaps because there wasn't much anyway. But, who knows - maybe that incident was in the news when Berger sat for the interview in which he made the notorious claim and it inspired him to spin an imaginative tale.

mrmopar · #5 10-08-2020, 06:56 PM

I would add to that the fact that I suspect a lot of people just want one to be able to say they own one. Pure demand with no reason other than the desire to own one because it is THE THING to do. Maybe it is someone scraping enough together to afford their top card or someone who has money to burn and realizes that people will drool all over a nice copy if they buy one.

For exactly those couple of reasons you state that the card should NOT be that much more valuable, or at least the other 52 High numbers should be worth more than they are, proves this to me. The demand for the card, regardless of what the price rises to is never satisfied by the supply so the price continues to rise and rise, yet so many other cards are harder to find and cost considerably less. The Pafko is another example of a card being "worth" way more than it should be worth.

.

Quote:

Originally Posted by steve B

I've expressed this before, what makes a top collectible in any field isn't any of the things that are usually thought of, at least not on their own.

This hobby has a number of great examples, the 52 Mantle being one of them.
Is it "rare"? Not exactly. It's a double print, so as part of the 52 high numbers it's one of the three most common.
So why don't any of the other 52 high numbers even get close?

It's got all the other factors.

It's not common, but also not so rare that someone who wants one can't find one.
The subject is very popular.
There's even a great story, that the 52 high numbers are "rare" because the remainders were dumped in the harbor/river/ocean

And that really all it takes.
It doesn't hurt that the set it's from is a great looking set.
Or that his popularity is in NY, one of the larger cities.

It shares those things with some of the other very expensive collectibles at the top of their respective hobbies.
The Wagner T206 of course
The inverted "Jenny" airmail stamp
The "CIA invert stamp -- although less so, because it's newer and not a particularly good looking stamp.
The 1804 Silver dollar
And maybe the 1913 liberty nickel (although it IS rare, it also has the great story/mystery)

jchcollins · #6 10-09-2020, 07:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrmopar

The Pafko is another example of a card being "worth" way more than it should be worth.

Agreed. I've always thought that card was way over-hyped. The rarity in it being #1 is totally related to condition, but should have nothing to do with the card's production. It's not a scarce high number. I'm ok with truly great condition, NM Pafko's going for a premium, but there isn't really anything special about G and VG copies.

Bigdaddy · #7 10-15-2020, 07:36 AM

Not saying that this is your guy, but here's an example of a card that might fit the bill to fill that hole in your set. It's been hanging around the 'bay for quite some time and has grown a 'rona beard while looking for a home. Personally, I think the card is still waaayyy overpriced.

uyu906 · #8 10-15-2020, 08:05 AM

Love the "Rona" beard! LOL

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bigdaddy

Not saying that this is your guy, but here's an example of a card that might fit the bill to fill that hole in your set. It's been hanging around the 'bay for quite some time and has grown a 'rona beard while looking for a home. Personally, I think the card is still waaayyy overpriced.

Exhibitman · #9 10-15-2020, 11:41 AM

The 1952 Topps Jackie Robinson has also jumped into the thousands for even the beaters.

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