So I walked into a card store today, and was puzzled by...

Tyruscobb · #1 11-23-2020, 06:30 PM

I fear that demographics may severely affect vintage�s supply and demand equilibrium over the next 10 years and tank prices. We are potentially at the peak. Baby boomers are the reason.

Unfortunately, over the next 10 years, baby boomer deaths will significantly increase. Their heirs will liquidate collections and flood the market. This will increase the supply side. This is inevitable.

The question is whether the demand side will have enough buyers to support price levels. Right now, baby boomers are primarily supporting the demand side. They are retired and have nice disposable income levels. Baby boomers are buying legends, such as Mantle, Mays, Aaron, etc., they grew up watching and legends, such as DiMaggio, Ruth, Williams, etc., their fathers grew up watching and telling them about.

So, will the next generation have this same love of vintage to support prices?

cardsagain74 · #2 11-23-2020, 06:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyruscobb

I fear that demographics may severely affect vintage’s supply and demand equilibrium over the next 10 years and tank prices. We are potentially at the peak. Baby boomers are the reason.

Unfortunately, over the next 10 years, baby boomer deaths will significantly increase. Their heirs will liquidate collections and flood the market. This will increase the supply side. This is inevitable.

The question is whether the demand side will have enough buyers to support price levels. Right now, baby boomers are primarily supporting the demand side. They are retired and have nice disposable income levels. Baby boomers are buying legends, such as Mantle, Mays, Aaron, etc., they grew up watching and legends, such as DiMaggio, Ruth, Williams, etc., their fathers grew up watching and telling them about.

So, will the next generation have this same love of vintage to support prices?

My generation may have loved baseball cards (and baseball) during our '80s childhood almost as much as the boomers in the '50s. So, once we are retired with that disposable income factor, I'm hoping that enough of us are still interested in vintage, at least post-war anyway (in the same manner as many of the boomers here love their T 206s and Goudeys today).

But not long after I was a kid, the landscape changed, and football and basketball became the American pasttimes. So once my gen X is gone, I'm not sure if Mantle, Aaron, and Mays will still stay so prevalent

nat · #3 11-23-2020, 08:01 PM

The comment about the boomers is exactly right. There's no way that post-war prices stay as high as they are, long term. Baseball card prices are driven, in large part, by nostalgia, and when the people who are nostalgic for Mantle can just watch the guy playing on the other side of the pearly gates, that force driving prices is going to crater. The post-war market will come to resemble the pre-war market, which of course still has its high points, but doesn't have the force of nostalgia driving it.

As for card shops: I suspect that selling unopened modern is just an easier way to go. It's basically just a commodity. You can get a pretty good sense of how much product you're going to move each month, you put in an order for that much from Topps, and you've got a predictable income stream. Selling vintage is more work (you've got to hunt down collections that you can profitably flip), and much less predictable. If whether or not I eat next month depended on how many cards I sell, I could totally see ignoring vintage.

todeen · #4 11-24-2020, 03:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyruscobb

I fear that demographics may severely affect vintage�s supply and demand equilibrium over the next 10 years and tank prices. We are potentially at the peak. Baby boomers are the reason.

Unfortunately, over the next 10 years, baby boomer deaths will significantly increase. Their heirs will liquidate collections and flood the market. This will increase the supply side. This is inevitable.

The question is whether the demand side will have enough buyers to support price levels. Right now, baby boomers are primarily supporting the demand side. They are retired and have nice disposable income levels. Baby boomers are buying legends, such as Mantle, Mays, Aaron, etc., they grew up watching and legends, such as DiMaggio, Ruth, Williams, etc., their fathers grew up watching and telling them about.

So, will the next generation have this same love of vintage to support prices?

Baby boomers' kids don't want Hummel, Oak furniture, milk glass, brass, plate collections, spoon collections, most photo albums, etc etc etc. Who knows about vintage? But if millennials are the first generation expected to make less total wealth in a lifetime than their parents, it stands to reason a lot of vintage collections will pay for college, houses, retirement investment, etc.

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Mark17 · #5 11-24-2020, 04:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyruscobb

I fear that demographics may severely affect vintage�s supply and demand equilibrium over the next 10 years and tank prices. We are potentially at the peak. Baby boomers are the reason.

Unfortunately, over the next 10 years, baby boomer deaths will significantly increase. Their heirs will liquidate collections and flood the market. This will increase the supply side. This is inevitable.

The question is whether the demand side will have enough buyers to support price levels. Right now, baby boomers are primarily supporting the demand side. They are retired and have nice disposable income levels. Baby boomers are buying legends, such as Mantle, Mays, Aaron, etc., they grew up watching and legends, such as DiMaggio, Ruth, Williams, etc., their fathers grew up watching and telling them about.

So, will the next generation have this same love of vintage to support prices?

Not sure if I agree with the nostalgia regarding Mantle, Mays, etc. being all that important.

Look at all the collectors here of guys like Wagner, Cobb, Plank, Speaker, and so on. Few people alive today saw these guys play, so there's zero nostalgia effect from personal experience with these players. No reason why collectors of the future won't also eagerly seek Mantle, Mays, and Aaron in the same way.

todeen · #6 11-24-2020, 08:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mark17

Not sure if I agree with the nostalgia regarding Mantle, Mays, etc. being all that important.

Look at all the collectors here of guys like Wagner, Cobb, Plank, Speaker, and so on. Few people alive today saw these guys play, so there's zero nostalgia effect from personal experience with these players. No reason why collectors of the future won't also eagerly seek Mantle, Mays, and Aaron in the same way.

I collect Speaker because he is a distant cousin (I have a great uncle who is named after Tris, died in Korean War), and I was enamored by that as a 6/7 year old just learning about baseball. Similarly, my wife is distantly related to Enos "Country" Slaughter. It's a way I might affect my son to consider collecting vintage, since Slaughter doesn't seem as difficult or costly to acquire as Speaker at the moment.

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glynparson · #7 11-24-2020, 08:32 AM

Ignorance that�s why he said it. I have heard fools saying this since I started collecting over 40 years ago. Anybody can say anything. Put absolutely no stock in what he said. He doesn�t have a clue.

jchcollins · #8 11-24-2020, 09:33 AM

I would agree that for the few remaining storefront LCS operations, modern in the vast majority of cases is their bread and butter. For the past 2+ years, I've been lucky enough to have an LCS that did both that and vintage well, but with the onset of Covid, I went in one day probably in early June and the vintage was suddenly all gone. The owner had removed all the singles from his cases - citing I guess an increased risk if passing back and forth single cards - and is now "for the time being" (I'm guessing longer...) doing just new product and the breaks and the hobby boxes, etc. I was lucky enough to get some fantastic deals from him on vintage that I was interested in in the past, but the truth is he has more than enough customers that I would guess average in their 20's and early 30's who will come in and loiter for hours at a time, dropping cash left and right on modern and breaking it with him. Just over the last month or so I really kind of tried to plead my case - saying hey, can you look for XYZ for me? He knows what I collect, and has the stuff somewhere - but it's just not worth his time anymore. He of course promised to go hunting for me, but never has. Last week I was told "Sorry, we had 4 new releases this week." Ok. Disappointing, (especially considering the cash I have dropped with him on vintage in the past 2 years...) but I guess I get it. As for me anymore, eBay singles and buying elsewhere online for vintage is simply a ton easier. That's where I'm going to focus my efforts in the future. I'm all for supporting the local little guy, but if he's not interested anymore, then I'm not going to hound him to death forever.

ASF123 · #9 11-24-2020, 02:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jchcollins

with the onset of Covid, I went in one day probably in early June and the vintage was suddenly all gone. The owner had removed all the singles from his cases - citing I guess an increased risk if passing back and forth single cards - and is now "for the time being" (I'm guessing longer...) doing just new product and the breaks and the hobby boxes, etc. I was lucky enough to get some fantastic deals from him on vintage that I was interested in in the past, but the truth is he has more than enough customers that I would guess average in their 20's and early 30's who will come in and loiter for hours at a time, dropping cash left and right on modern and breaking it with him.

...which is, ironically, far riskier from a Covid standpoint than handing a vintage card to someone.

jchcollins · #10 11-24-2020, 03:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ASF123

...which is, ironically, far riskier from a Covid standpoint than handing a vintage card to someone.

Of course. I would go in, find what I wanted, sometimes spend hundreds of dollars on a single card, and then leave. The guys who do the hobby boxes are ALWAYS in there, no matter if I come in at 10 am or 4:30 pm. They are there when I come in, there when I leave, and there the next week. Sometimes I wonder if they have jobs.

rhettyeakley · #11 11-24-2020, 09:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by glynparson

Ignorance that�s why he said it. I have heard fools saying this since I started collecting over 40 years ago. Anybody can say anything. Put absolutely no stock in what he said. He doesn�t have a clue.

I agree with Glyn.

He lives in his own bubble and doesn�t know the actual market for vintage.

Rich Klein · #12 11-24-2020, 09:59 AM

A few random thoughts:

The store that survives on supplies may very well be doing just that. Back in the day the promoter (no longer with us) who used to promote the Nassau Coliseum show said he paid his rent with the profit from supplies. I know for me, it's easier to go to a LCS and have pre-made 3200 ct or monster boxes than for me to do them. The extra money is worth it for my aggravation. Plus getting sleeves and semi-rigids gives me a reason to visit the four stores within a half hour of my domicile.

Nick's Sportscards near me got in a large collection of Goudey's in a few months ago. They sent them to BGS for grading (frankly because they could drop off and pick up in person) and this was an original collection. I think maybe 10 percent of that collection was still there 3 weeks later. Sometimes you just have to be lucky as a vintage collector to visit a store when cards come in.

When we discuss vintage on hobby hotline (I do try to bring some vintage discussion in when I'm on the show) one aspect which gets pointed out is the lack of film about vintage players. Back in the day when we got our news via daily papers and television that mix allowed us to read about the older players. In today's world it's far more important to have visuals than printed word.

With the profits out there on modern boxes/cases/singles what do you do? You got to sell what more of the people want. As Leon has said (and I apologize if I get his quote wrong): We're about 1 percent of the card collecting community albeit a very important part thereof. I received the REA Catalog last night and even there with all the great vintage in it, there is a lot more modern stuff than ever before.

More thoughts later

Rich

jchcollins · #13 11-24-2020, 10:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rich Klein

The store that survives on supplies may very well be doing just that.

I used to have an LCS 15+ years ago that I only bought supplies from. Not sure if they totally made their living that way, but I would not have been surprised. The "cards" in the store were mostly Pokemon and a small selection of modern boxes, one tiny display case of beat and overpriced raw vintage and junk era stars. I literally never bought a card in the place, only boxes and toploaders and sleeves. It closed some time back.

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