"1999 Pok�mon trading card could rake in $500K at auction"

ATP · #1 12-04-2020, 11:15 AM

I actually got really interested in following First Edition Pokemon cards earlier this year. There is not a ton of hard science behind this but here is the soft math I am using to try to get an idea of print run. Wizards of the Coast made Magic as well. They have a pretty verifiable print run on their first printing of cards, Alpha, as they produced only 1100 of each of the cards that were packed in the "rare" slot. At any given time, there is usually about 12 (approximately) of a specific Alpha magic "rare" for sale on eBay. At any given time, there is approximately 50 of a specific First Edition base set Pokemon card. Someone who has more time may be able to extrapolate this further out and take an overage for each and then do the same for the uncommon cards and commons, which also have verifiable runs in Alpha Magic and this may give a decent idea of what the total print run is. If the average holds somewhat true just for the Rares, that would mean there are about 4 - 5 times the number of Pokemon Rare First Edition base set produced, so around 5000 each. Someone feel free to shoot this whole theory down

peanuts · #2 12-04-2020, 11:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ATP

I actually got really interested in following First Edition Pokemon cards earlier this year. There is not a ton of hard science behind this but here is the soft math I am using to try to get an idea of print run. Wizards of the Coast made Magic as well. They have a pretty verifiable print run on their first printing of cards, Alpha, as they produced only 1100 of each of the cards that were packed in the "rare" slot. At any given time, there is usually about 12 (approximately) of a specific Alpha magic "rare" for sale on eBay. At any given time, there is approximately 50 of a specific First Edition base set Pokemon card. Someone who has more time may be able to extrapolate this further out and take an overage for each and then do the same for the uncommon cards and commons, which also have verifiable runs in Alpha Magic and this may give a decent idea of what the total print run is. If the average holds somewhat true just for the Rares, that would mean there are about 4 - 5 times the number of Pokemon Rare First Edition base set produced, so around 5000 each. Someone feel free to shoot this whole theory down

I like your premise � two points I would make to narrow the math a bit more.
- Rare:Common ratio differs between the two. Alpha magic is 1100:15900 (1:14.45). Base Set boosters are 11/pk, with a 1:7 ratio. Right away, we're looking at double the relative supply of rares. Admittedly, I don't know what the ratios are on the starter decks/theme decks that were also sold, so that could affect the actual ratio.
- Market volume in relation to total supply. Pokemon is a hot market right now, so it's safe to assume that float is fairly high.

Usc1 · #3 12-04-2020, 12:32 PM

Where can I buy Pokemon cards? For research of course.

ATP · #4 12-04-2020, 12:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by peanuts

I like your premise – two points I would make to narrow the math a bit more.
- Rare:Common ratio differs between the two. Alpha magic is 1100:15900 (1:14.45). Base Set boosters are 11/pk, with a 1:7 ratio. Right away, we're looking at double the relative supply of rares. Admittedly, I don't know what the ratios are on the starter decks/theme decks that were also sold, so that could affect the actual ratio.
- Market volume in relation to total supply. Pokemon is a hot market right now, so it's safe to assume that float is fairly high.

Both good points. My math was just a rough estimate I used but I wouldn't be surprised if it holds up pretty well, eBay seems to be the great equalizer on most things collectible. And while Pokemon may be much hotter right now, Alpha Magic cards have been somewhat hot for a longer period of time so one could argue that more of them have made them into the market for sale than First Edition Pokemon, which right now appears to be coming out of people binders and collections at a fast pace. Also, I am surprised that no one (or maybe they have) has dug out some images of Wizards of the Coast print sheets sheets, and if they were printed like Magic cards were in their arrangement allocation. Being able to get an estimate based on how they were printed I think would help.

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