Vintage RC price explosion

[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by gustomania

I’ve always been a Rose fan and always wanted his 63 but never did because the card is flat out ugly. I’ve recently gotten excited and comfortable knowing I really am more happy with a 65, 69 and many others that I feel are just better examples. That’s just me, like today I picked up a 70 Seaver PSA 8 that is really nice. While his 67 is awesome I would rather have 3-4 strong Seaver examples than A low grade rookie (unless it is like a 2 that presents like a 7)

+1.

A lot of vintage RC's have gotten stupid expensive just within the last year, including Rose. I had one in 2019, a nice PSA 5. It was cool to own for a while, but like you said - I decided I really just didn't like the card. It's a ton of cash for floating heads... If it had been a $200 RC or something I probably would have kept it, but I decided for that kind of money I'd rather have other Mantle cards or other HOF'ers or something. So I sold it, and now about a year later probably could have been selling it for at least $300 more in a PSA 5 than what I got. That's nuts. I like Rose too, but am making do right now with a nice '66 Topps and a few of his early 70's cards in decent shape.

As for the rest, also very true that 2nd year cards and other early issues are certainly proving to be quite the bargain over the rookie cards. With Seaver, I have his '68 All-Star RC raw in what would probably be about EX-MT, which is an insane value when comparing it to the '67 high number. Earlier this year, I had a chance to get a Clemente RC in probably about the 3 range after I sold off some prewar HOF'ers that I was no longer interested in. I decided to upgrade my '56 Mantle instead, and it's like boom - that window closed. What I would have spent on a lower grade Clemente wasn't possible even just a few months later. No regrets for me, but it is crazy to see how this year has gone. I would imagine like previous bubbles - prices may settle at some point, but I doubt they will drop entirely / revert to 2018 prices or anything for the marquee RC's of the 50's like Aaron, Banks, Clemente, Koufax, Gibson, et al., and then Rose, Seaver, & Ryan in the 60's.

[ullmandds]

I can't justify the cost of the rose rookie...I much prefer the 64'...but in my collection resides a nice autographed 64' kahns!!!!

[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

I can't justify the cost of the rose rookie...I much prefer the 64'...but in my collection resides a nice autographed 64' kahns!!!!

That's nice!

[SPMIDD]

I agree that second year cards are the way to go if the rookie card is out of the question due to price. I have used that strategy in the past and I have a bunch of them myself. As far as the Rose rookie goes, I think the floating head card is awesome and am thankful that I have one in my collection but I might be a bit biased since I am such a Reds fan.

[hcv123]

Baseball cards like many other "commodities" are ultimately supply and demand driven markets. When demand outpaces supply there is upward price pressure. When Supply outpaces demand there is downward price pressure.

It is not a simple straight line, but for the purposes of this response, I will keep it simple.

Barring a massive find, the supply of vintage cards is relatively finite and not going to change. So the argument has to be made that there has been a significant spike in demand driving the price appreciation. The real key as to what happens to prices moving forward is going to be tied to where all this new demand is from and what happens with it moving forward. With the amount of mainstream coverage that has been received, don't discount the possibility that demand can still increase! That said, if demand decreases - so too prices will follow.