Vegas Dave: The Sports Card Market will Collapse in 24-36 Months

[Directly]

Per Dave--"Oh and by the way, Pokémon Cards are the biggest waste of money. Years from now please remember this. This by far is the the worst investment you can make long term"


There may be worst ways to waste money, cigarettes' came to mind, even though they are rather expensive, people still buy them.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by bmattioli

I only buy low grade so I'm good..

I collect those type myself.

[Casey2296]

Precursor to the Topps 3-d cards.

[perezfan]

Life was far better before the advent of the "Influencer". It might be the dumbest term/concept I've ever heard. Who the hell decided these people are necessary to society, and who (besides themselves) appointed them king?

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by perezfan

Life was far better before the advent of the "Influencer". It might be the dumbest term/concept I've ever heard. Who the hell decided these people are necessary to society, and who (besides themselves) appointed them king?

I agree! The fact that this has become a "career" befuddles me!

[Tao_Moko]

How many have searched "Vegas Dave" since this post. I'm resisting temptation hard! Don't want him to win my click.

[maniac_73]

If you're listening to Vegas Dave for investment advice you have bigger problems than what your sports cards are worth

[todeen]

Originally Posted by nineunder71

POGS!!!!!!



Great Post, haven’t thought about those in 20 years

Someone was selling a Derek Jeter pog on the forum a couple months ago. I guess it's pretty rare. --Shoulder shrug emoji--

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[conor912]

Hopefully PSA gets the memo that the clock is ticking. Subs sent now may not make Dave’s prophetic cutoff.

[todeen]

Originally Posted by brianp-beme

When it comes to my collectible expenditures, I place my trust in Atlantic City Sal, who knows a thing or two about a thing or two.

Brian

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[todeen]

Social influencer!

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[jcmtiger]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

The dumbest buys I have ever seen are the Mantle for 5.2M, my Trout for 4M, Jordan 86 Fleers at 250-300k, Giannis at 1.5M, Lebron at 1.5M and f*cken Tatis at 250k.

I think this is exactly right.

Yup

[jcmtiger]

Glad I sold my 4 T206 cobbs. A couple years ago. I’m 79 did not want to wait any longer. Got a great payday. Joe not sure what this guy is talking about.

[mark evans]

Of course, no one knows whether Vegas Dave is right or not. Kind of tough to predict the future. It would not surprise me at all if there were some 'correction' in values down the road. To me as a collector, the answer has always been to buy what I like to own and look at. If the cards increase in value, good. If not, that's ok too.

[Michael B]

To paraphrase and bastardize the great Ned Beatty as Senator Meachum in 'Shooter':

‘The truth is what I say it is’

‘It's not really as bad as it seems. It's all gonna be done in any case. You might as well be on the side that gets you well paid for your efforts. There are no sides. There’s no collectors and investors. There's only haves and have-nots. And nobody questions the Desert Douchebag, because they don't want to hear the answer because it's a lie! There's only so many places at the table, so sell out now and you can walk away with something.

[maddux31]

I followed him on IG for a bit, but he just got to be too much for my liking. When he would try and hype up Derek Carr cards as the next big thing he lost all credibility with me.

I don't know all the specifics, but he had been living in his parent's basement for a while. He was dating Holly Sonders and instead of shacking up with her he made the decision to stay away from her and concentrate on his sports betting gig.

[irv]

Bidder Up: In 2018, Vegas Dave paid $400,000 for a signed Mike Trout rookie card. In August, he auctioned it for nearly $4 million. ... Instead of being convicted of nearly twenty felonies, he pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor, forfeited half a million dollars, and was banned from Las Vegas sportsbooks for three years.Sep 4, 2020

https://www.forbes.com/sites/willyak...h=735601fe5488

[Snapolit1]

Market will crash in 2-3 years. Nice. That's a finely tuned call.

Magic 8 ball a bit foggy.

[2dueces]

The market will either go up or down in the next year. Card prices will soar come down and soar. Chance of rain 50%.
If you listen to anyone else when you buy or sell a card or stock you listen to the wrong person. Your money, your decision. If you sell now at a nice profit and the price doubles tomorrow you still made. Nice profit. Hindsight never gets you anywhere. If you leave a slot machine and the little old lady hits the jackpot next pull you shouldn’t have been there to see it.
Do your own research. Make your own decisions.
Vegas Dave can say what he wants. Opinions are like buttholes. Everyone has one and they all stink.

[chalupacollects]

[QUOTE=Directly;2061432]Per Dave--"Oh and by the way, Pokémon Cards are the biggest waste of money. Years from now please remember this. This by far is the the worst investment you can make long term"


Sounds like he is going to try and corner the Pokemon market and then dump...

[Buythatcard]

There was an article done about him by Sports Collector's Digest in August 2020.
The guy is definitely in love with himself.

See article below:

https://sportscollectorsdigest.com/c...baseball-cards

[Seven]

Maybe he can tell me what the next Gamestop will be! In all seriousness, regardless of what this guy says, we'll all be here, still collecting.

[BCauley]

He sounds like a real stand up kind of guy.

He originally faced 19 felony counts after authorities said he used other people’s Social Security numbers to open player accounts at casinos. The alleged crimes occurred between February 2015 and February 2016 and involved transactions that amounted to more than $1.2 million.

https://www.reviewjournal.com/crime/...court-1584318/

[Ronnie73]

I believe there will be a crash in the next few years. But only on the newer stuff. I just can't see the same process continue for many more years. Some people got back in to the new stuff for a year or two and then realized the money just wasn't there unless you were one extremely lucky person and gets the big hit of the year. But a majority don't and eventually fade away from the hobby, while new collectors join in thinking they are going to make some quick money. But the same thing happens. At some point most people will have already been burned and the new cards will drop in price. I watch the new case breaks on YouTube. They make a big deal on the case hit and by next year, it's a $10 card. People are buying in at $50 to $150 average and maybe a couple people break even and one person actually makes a profit, but the majority lose. I tell people all the time, why are you buying a brand new manufactured rarity for more money than a T206 HOF card. Topps and Panini are not over producing like in the late 1980's and early 1990's, but they are coming out with a new product it seems like every week. And each of their products have chase cards and color parallels which is mostly what everyone is interested in. There's just too many cards overall. A 1 of 1 card sounds super rare but they make over a 1000 different 1 of 1 cards per year. So it just isn't as special. Plus the added hype on these videos when a box is being opened. A few days ago I watched Vegas Dave open a box of 1986 Fleer Basketball. Every card he'd price was maybe what a PSA 10 would sell for. I didn't see many cards with perfect centering. But the hype pulls people in, they spend money, they lose money, and the next person comes along. Eventually people catch on. Most are not really aware of true vintage, before Topps. I don't see the true vintage cards taking a big hit when the new card hobby crashes. But that's been my opinion for a couple years now. We'll just have to wait and see.

[Fred]

Is there an over/under on this time frame? If so, I'll take the under.

[luciobar1980]

The prognosticator of prognosticators , Vegas Dave.

[nineunder71]

His initials seem fitting......VD

[Exhibitman]

Nice take, Ron. Could be true of any investment when it gets hyped. Look at the GME and AMC nuttiness.

I do collect modern too. My 'philosophy' is the same, though: I collect what I like, so if I am stuck with it I can still enjoy it. If I like a design I buy the card, if not, I skip it. There are some really nice and innovative issues out there.




So why not have some fun and pick up a few?

I do salt away a few gambles here and there, maybe ten flagship base set rookies of a player who has potential, but those are just for shits and giggles. I also like to bust a couple of boxes here and there for fun, then I put all of those into a box and salt them away too, and wait to see whether some rookie in there matures into a great player.

[GaryPassamonte]

Originally Posted by Directly

Per Dave--"Oh and by the way, Pokémon Cards are the biggest waste of money. Years from now please remember this. This by far is the the worst investment you can make long term"


There may be worst ways to waste money, cigarettes' came to mind, even though they are rather expensive, people still buy them.

The Pokeman comment sounds alot like something Alan Hager would say.

[chriskim]

I believe he sold the rest of his Red and Orange Trout refractors collection already.

[Exhibitman]

This was in a MarketWatch article on the Gamestop bubble but it applies with equal force to anyone investing in sports cards and looking for a top:

“The problem is when these people are sitting on a mountain of profits, rather than thank their lucky stars and lock-in these once-in-a-lifetime profits, they are too busy gloating and taunting the other side. Instead of being satisfied with nearly $500, bulls insist on waiting until this goes all the way to $1,000. And bears that captured a 77% tumble in 120-minutes, rather than jump on this historic move, they demanded it to go all the way to $5. And you know what, both sides are equally guilty of holding too long and letting these historic profits evaporated before their very eyes. As the saying goes, ‘Bulls make money, bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered.’ Don’t be a pig and take these spectacular profits when you have them. Because if you don’t, they will almost certainly be gone in a few hours.”

[Republicaninmass]

Vegas Dave will collapse in the next 24-36 months

[Fred]

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

Vegas Dave will collapse in the next 24-36 months

So, you taking the over or under?

[joshuanip]

As other assets like stocks, it’s normal and healthy to consolidate after a boom.

But to predict a bust just because it ran up doesn’t factor the possibility i) there may be a consolidation period to digest the run up and ii) asset prices generally rise over the long run through the cycles- which cards have exhibited several times as we long time collectors experienced.

His name is Vegas Dave for a reason I guess...

IMO, every asset class is in a bubble due to the central bank liquidity. Given fed messaging for QE support for the next several years, add fiscal stimulus, they effectively removed cyclicality in the economy - so we may hit bumps but I take the over...

[tkd]

My prediction is prices in the next 24-36 months will go up, go down, or stay the same.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by tkd

My prediction is prices in the next 24-36 months will go up, go down, or stay the same.

You might be right. I can't decide...