What is happening with baseball card prices?

hcv123 · #1 02-01-2021, 03:15 PM

1) Finite supply of vintage cards
2) HUGE increase in demand for 2 primary reasons including Sports cards and memorabilia being recognized as a legitimate "investment" and the "covid effect" - many people rediscovering collecting and getting back in the market.
3) Lots of money sloshing around the economy courtesy of the stimulus.

Only if we see a significant drop in demand (which I am not so sure is coming) would there be downward pressure on prices.

The 1952 Topps Mantle is a great example - you can go and buy one any day of the week - the supply exists. The price has continued to go up in response to demand - think for a minute about the fact that a PSA 9 just sold for 5.2 MILLION dollars! If the Mantle is the yardstick - what are the rest of the significant 52's worth? Or many other vintage cards?

An anecdotal observation - It seems to me there are a lot fewer higher grade 7-10 cards coming to market. I think about this in a context of old muscle cars - I used to be able to go to a car show and see rows and rows of incredible cars including some of the most rare. It seems these days most of these cars have been gobbled up and sit in private collections for years.

Another thought I have is the prices relative to other collected categories - How much does a great or rare painting sell for? Previously mentioned cars? Coins? Art other than paintings? Jewelry? In that context Sports cards and memorabilia are in their financial infancy.

One way or another, things are going to stay interesting....... Collect what you enjoy and you'll rarely be sorry.

irv · #2 02-01-2021, 03:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hcv123

1) Finite supply of vintage cards
2) HUGE increase in demand for 2 primary reasons including Sports cards and memorabilia being recognized as a legitimate "investment" and the "covid effect" - many people rediscovering collecting and getting back in the market.
3) Lots of money sloshing around the economy courtesy of the stimulus.

Only if we see a significant drop in demand (which I am not so sure is coming) would there be downward pressure on prices.

The 1952 Topps Mantle is a great example - you can go and buy one any day of the week - the supply exists. The price has continued to go up in response to demand - think for a minute about the fact that a PSA 9 just sold for 5.2 MILLION dollars! If the Mantle is the yardstick - what are the rest of the significant 52's worth? Or many other vintage cards?

An anecdotal observation - It seems to me there are a lot fewer higher grade 7-10 cards coming to market. I think about this in a context of old muscle cars - I used to be able to go to a car show and see rows and rows of incredible cars including some of the most rare. It seems these days most of these cars have been gobbled up and sit in private collections for years.

Another thought I have is the prices relative to other collected categories - How much does a great or rare painting sell for? Previously mentioned cars? Coins? Art other than paintings? Jewelry? In that context Sports cards and memorabilia are in their financial infancy.

One way or another, things are going to stay interesting....... Collect what you enjoy and you'll rarely be sorry.

I only seen a tiny bit of the last Mecum auction but how did prices compare to previous auctions?
I believe it was Carol Shelby's Cobra that sold for 5.3-5 million. I also believe that was a new record?

cardsagain74 · #3 02-01-2021, 04:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hcv123

Another thought I have is the prices relative to other collected categories - How much does a great or rare painting sell for? Previously mentioned cars? Coins? Art other than paintings? Jewelry? In that context Sports cards and memorabilia are in their financial infancy.

I don't think we've caught the Superman #1 comic yet. If one the Mantle PSA 10s ever sells during this, maybe we'll see. Not sure if one of those has sold in forever either though (dunno much about them)

Kutcher55 · #4 02-01-2021, 04:16 PM

I'm quite bullish on the next 6 months. After that, who knows. I can see a leveling off post Covid but that '52 Mays card is only going up.

Vintage baseball has seen a steady growth these past 12-18 months. Certain players went up substantially (Ruth, Aaron, Mays and Robinson in particular) but a lot of other players didn't move that much, especially compared to basketball and to modern.

In the past ten days since Hank Aaron's passing, vintage has made a big jump and it seems to be involving a greater variety of old cards. There's likely another stimulus coming and the sports card market has been in the news quite a bit lately. You've got mainstream sports media like ESPN and The Ringer talking about it (the first episode of The Ringer sports card podcast was horrid btw). The momentum is huge and the next 6 months should see more growth.

Yes, some collectors will be taking a profit, but more people continue to enter the market. Things look good and the bubble is expanding like 5-piece wad of chewing gum being blown by Kurt freaken Bevacqua. Put me in the bulls corner.

Republicaninmass · #5 02-01-2021, 06:18 PM

When everyone is talking about how easy it is to flip ( insert.item here) in a weeks time, be fearful. Just my opinion

Popcorn · #6 02-01-2021, 06:35 PM

It�s crazy, the cheapest 52 jackie on eBay right now is $25,000 for a bvg 4

scmavl · #7 02-02-2021, 06:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Popcorn

It�s crazy, the cheapest 52 jackie on eBay right now is $25,000 for a bvg 4

I bought that Jackie (that exact card) for $6k a couple of months ago, and traded it for what I had in it, as the centering bugged me. It was $15k two days ago, then they raised the price $10k when all other '52 Jackies sold.

Exhibitman · #8 02-02-2021, 09:07 AM

I better list mine for $20K

hcv123 · #9 02-01-2021, 05:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cardsagain74

I don't think we've caught the Superman #1 comic yet. If one the Mantle PSA 10s ever sells during this, maybe we'll see. Not sure if one of those has sold in forever either though (dunno much about them)

The guys who own those things rarely sell them. I think the last Gem MT Mantle sold 20+ years ago in an REA auction for like 30K!

As the supply of the "best" is removed from the market, it becomes a question of "the best available" - Is it only me or have others seen a dwindling offering of some of the Key rookies and stars graded 8-10?

Exhibitman · #10 02-01-2021, 05:43 PM

Supply of many cards is drying up; no one wants to leave money on the table. This is probably a very good time to start selling off the chaff.

Wanaselja · #11 02-01-2021, 06:05 PM

2 random observations.

1) I agree that the Ringer�s card podcast wasn�t good. �Clemens PSA 10 RC�s are relatively affordable�.

2) I think the surge in vintage softens slightly when Spring Training starts and everyone is projecting Soto or Tatis to win MVP.

That�s all. And as per forum rules,
Adam Wanaselja.

Tyruscobb · #12 02-01-2021, 06:44 PM

If you think this is a bubble, and are calling a top (or close to it), then liquidate everything. Earmark the money for cards. Then, when the market declines, you can buy back all your old cards, plus many more, with the same money. Your collection will come out ahead in the long-run. However, calling a top is hard. I think it was Warren Buffet that said he would love just to be able to get within 20% of predicting a top and bottom.

I�m no expert, but I personally think that the card market will experience a nice correction when the Covid-19 money exits. When somewhat of normalcy returns, card budgets will disappear for other entertainment spending, such as vacations, experiences, etc.

Good luck.

campyfan39 · #13 02-01-2021, 07:46 PM

I am in agreement with this in that card budgets will drop as people return to vacations, movies and concerts etc.

One other aspect though is people like me who have taken advantage of the spike and sold a few big cards that I wasn't too connected to. I now have a bigger card budget than in the recent past. So I think some of it will continue based on people like me liquidating only to infuse it right back in.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyruscobb

If you think this is a bubble, and are calling a top (or close to it), then liquidate everything. Earmark the money for cards. Then, when the market declines, you can buy back all your old cards, plus many more, with the same money. Your collection will come out ahead in the long-run. However, calling a top is hard. I think it was Warren Buffet that said he would love just to be able to get within 20% of predicting a top and bottom.

I�m no expert, but I personally think that the card market will experience a nice correction when the Covid-19 money exits. When somewhat of normalcy returns, card budgets will disappear for other entertainment spending, such as vacations, experiences, etc.

Good luck.

mortimer brewster · #14 02-02-2021, 01:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyruscobb

I�m no expert, but I personally think that the card market will experience a nice correction when the Covid-19 money exits. When somewhat of normalcy returns, card budgets will disappear for other entertainment spending, such as vacations, experiences, etc.

Good luck.

Agreed, also when financial publications stop touting cards as investments.

I basically took the money I was going to spend on Hotels and transportation to the National last August and Comic Con in October and put thee money in a savings account. I'm just waiting for the speculators to exit and i'll take this money (plus the .001 percent interest) and resume finishing my vintage sets.

I realize prices will always be strong for Hi Grade material, but there is no reason why collector grade EXMT and lower should remain at ridiculous levels once everyone returns to their normal activities.

cardsagain74 · #15 02-01-2021, 06:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hcv123

The guys who own those things rarely sell them. I think the last Gem MT Mantle sold 20+ years ago in an REA auction for like 30K!

As the supply of the "best" is removed from the market, it becomes a question of "the best available" - Is it only me or have others seen a dwindling offering of some of the Key rookies and stars graded 8-10?

Oh I meant the Superman #1. Looks like 2014 was the last sale for it.

Still a ways to go before getting close to top artwork. But then those are one of a kind

rats60 · #16 02-01-2021, 06:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hcv123

The guys who own those things rarely sell them. I think the last Gem MT Mantle sold 20+ years ago in an REA auction for like 30K!

As the supply of the "best" is removed from the market, it becomes a question of "the best available" - Is it only me or have others seen a dwindling offering of some of the Key rookies and stars graded 8-10?

It sold for 275k in 2001.

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