What is happening with baseball card prices?

[Harliduck]

Originally Posted by jchcollins

Our cards being worth something is always kind of a nice fallback, a hobby which you can get something out of if you really need to

Well said, exactly how I feel. Boom/Bust, I don't care, it's not why I love this hobby. If I ever need to sell, (I have before to fund other hobbys) it's just nice to know I can get what I put into it...and if that busts out I will simply by more at reduced prices. Win/Win

[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by Harliduck

Well said, exactly how I feel. Boom/Bust, I don't care, it's not why I love this hobby. If I ever need to sell, (I have before to fund other hobbys) it's just nice to know I can get what I put into it...and if that busts out I will simply by more at reduced prices. Win/Win

Thanks. I will admit though it's funny to realize that a card you thought was worth about $200 is now selling for $550 though. I found that out on something last week. No plans to sell though, so I'm trying to treat it like a big moot point.

[bks14sr]

Originally Posted by jchcollins

Thanks. I will admit though it's funny to realize that a card you thought was worth about $200 is now selling for $550 though. I found that out on something last week. No plans to sell though, so I'm trying to treat it like a big moot point.

I’ve had this happen a few times recently. I bought a 10 lot of PSA 9 UD Griffey rookies for $500 a few years ago. Just seen that those are approaching 10x in price. One of those wtf moments. Still can’t justify selling them, as I like to hold onto stuff that I got cheap that much more. This same realization can be found on many other purchases as well.

[packs]

I have a theory and I believe it is sound but nobody likes it on the main board. There are a few unscrupulous sellers who are known to shill bid their auctions or at least not do anything about their consignors shill bidding their auctions and over the last few years there have been thread after thread about them.

The threads all have a common theme: how is X getting this price for this card?

They're not. Nobody ever pays for the card. That's why the card gets listed over and over and over again by the same seller. It never actually sold.

BUT if you have the same card in the same condition and you SEE a sale price for a card that didn't actually sell, you're more than likely to use that sale as a benchmark for pricing your own card, believing that price to be market value.

As a result, you have cheap cards being measured against a price point they should have never reached. Thereby raising the price of that card.

[bks14sr]

Originally Posted by packs

I have a theory and I believe it is sound but nobody likes it on the main board. There are a few unscrupulous sellers who are known to shill bid their auctions or at least not do anything about their consignors shill bidding their auctions and over the last few years there have been thread after thread about them.

The threads all have a common theme: how is X getting this price for this card?

They're not. Nobody ever pays for the card. That's why the card gets listed over and over and over again by the same seller. It never actually sold.

BUT if you have the same card in the same condition and you SEE a sale price for a card that didn't actually sell, you're more than likely to use that sale as a benchmark for pricing your own card, believing that price to be market value.

As a result, you have cheap cards being measured against a price point they should have never reached. Thereby raising the price of that card.

I believe this to be true. Every record sale and outlier is creating these new “base” prices. People seem to have short term memory of those same cards not selling at a fraction of current prices.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by packs

I have a theory and I believe it is sound but nobody likes it on the main board. There are a few unscrupulous sellers who are known to shill bid their auctions or at least not do anything about their consignors shill bidding their auctions and over the last few years there have been thread after thread about them.

The threads all have a common theme: how is X getting this price for this card?

They're not. Nobody ever pays for the card. That's why the card gets listed over and over and over again by the same seller. It never actually sold.

BUT if you have the same card in the same condition and you SEE a sale price for a card that didn't actually sell, you're more than likely to use that sale as a benchmark for pricing your own card, believing that price to be market value.

As a result, you have cheap cards being measured against a price point they should have never reached. Thereby raising the price of that card.

Totally Agree and it's been happening for years....It's my guess it's legal/or extremely difficult to prove, Who is the Victim? Is it the Marketplace and Future Perspective Buyers? I don't know seems like a conspiracy to me but I guess without a true victim its hard to charge..idk i'm holding out hope .....but have little to no faith left. We know altering a card isn't a crime. We know TPG's won't back up their grade, we know most major auction houses will not accept returns, we know to expect to see the same card by same auction house to be relisted time and time again always selling or we are led to believe selling at a higher number. Very Odd Or How about a now expected to see norm...it's depressing.

I see no signs of this stopping.....it's Had No Effect on the Prices Rising.

Will it only continue to go up???? Who Knows.... I've been wrong before.

One thing in this hobby will never change, Buyer Beware. That's all you can do, protect yourself, no one else will.

[packs]

I believe this is exactly why prices have risen. It's all artificial and not representative of any kind of market. On the main board there are a lot of guys who like to play economics chair and make all these points about the FED and interest rates and all this other crap.

Listen, I've been buying cards since I was 8 years old. Federal interest rates have factored into my purchasing power and decision making exactly 0 times.

[dio]

When more and more celebrities start showing off their high value cards and making it a cool trend. Then it will go even crazier. Not sure if this is going to happen but the trend seems like it will

[Exhibitman]

The vast majority of sales are genuine. Look at all the cards flowing through the auction houses: does anyone really believe that they are not selling the cards? I've done legal work for a few of them going after non-paying bidders. They take it very seriously and on high dollar cards will sue for their vig. I also know quite a few of the buyers and they are actual collectors who are tickled pink over getting their dream cards.

All that said, there is a great deal of speculation going on right now, lots of wannabe flippers. They are going to get their wings clipped badly when the corrections start, unless they have the discipline to set a specific target and sell when it gets there as the prices go up. I personally do not find this M.O. to be compelling, mainly because the transactional costs are so large (10% on up) for anything except a private sale and selling can be a PITA.

All these macro discussions about why remind me of an interview I heard once with Mark Cuban. He was asked about some sort of tax policy and scoffed at its effect on investment: he said that no one ever invests in a company or product based on taxes, they do it to make money and if there is a tax break it is ancillary to the main considerations. It's all BS too: no one 'knows' why things are as they are, just like none of the news organizations 'know' why the market went up or down on any given day. Individual decisionmaking does not aggregate into a collective consciousness, only into a collective outcome. Anyone making macroeconomic prognostications about why Willie Mays cards are going up or down is pulling it out of his ass, and more likely than not is coming to his opinions based on his personal biases and experiences. Of course the 1952 Topps Mantle is worth a fortune...if I own one of the MOFOs. Otherwise, it is overvalued and part of a bubble.

[packs]

I think you're right about that.

[Johnny630]

It’s my opinion that this same card will be relisted by the same auction within 1 to 3 months from now. Investors aren’t stupid or blind the fundamentals are not there for this said price. I understand momentum, this reminds me of GameStop. That’s just me that’s just my opinion I could be dead wrong. This card is a beautiful card in my personal opinion it could go between 10 and 15k but 40 with two days to go is pie in the sky in my book

I’m sorry I don’t trust this number as a true Value of said card.

Someone please shut me up if I’m off base but I adimentqly think the contrary.

[cardsagain74]

Guys....the 40 k for that Mantle is out of line. But you're using some wrong numbers and not including all the details (that explain things a little more).

The '52 B Mantle in PSA 7 has never been 5500-7500 recently....the last one sold for 8400 in late December, and a month and a half is a lifetime ago in this market w/ what's happened with Mantle, Aaron, and Mays since.

The one listed for 18 k BIN is a really weak PSA 7. Four bad corners (for that grade), t/b centering not that great, print mark on the front. It just sold today too.

The 40 k one has the perfect centering, eye appeal, and PWCC-S thing that people have been paying up for forever.

40 k is still obviously very high for it, but it's not the impossible aberration that it's being made out to be