CNN card story

hcv123 · #1 02-13-2021, 12:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MattyC

This is what happens in an entirely unregulated market. First come the fake sales, a tried and true scam in our hobby (either unpaid, or bought via proxy, as guys will happily pay a small percentage fee to change the optics and sales record on a card they own many copies of)...

Then people start buzzing: �You hear X card went for THIS MUCH?!� That creates legitimate Fear Of Missing Out among collectors� who now scramble to grab cards they�ve always liked in desperate hopes of staying ahead of the manipulation wave. Yet this behavior creates its own price spikes.

Alongside these elements comprising the perfect storm of today, you have sellers who witness these massive numbers and say, �Screw it.� So what do they do? En masse, they all raise their prices on cards that were fake sold. So now buyers� eyes get �anchored� to the new optics, the new numbers.

You also have the self anointed new bosses of the hobby, online snake oil hucksters trying to be your life coach and tell you what to buy (which they own). These guys direct the lemmings to their �stock picks.� This is a separate dynamic from the aforementioned fake sellers who buy many copies of a card then fake sell it or buy it in various venues to get the higher price to �take� or stick.

And yes, there are some fractional ownership companies out there now cherry picking some higher end items. And perhaps there is even some truth to the notion that there are �funds� out there, but not major hedge funds with 5 billion under management� rather a few million in pooled funds that guys want to use to make some money. But overpaying grossly without regard for eye appeal or pricing history isn�t really what Ivy League money does to make money.

The guys who profit from this climate try to write off all this activity as �The Wall Street Hedge Fund Guys� coming in. Invoking the specter of Gordon Gekko and thinking we will shut our brains off. But the real Gordon Gekko�s and their firms don�t play with cards. They don�t wake up and go, �I�ve never been into cards before and don�t know anything about them, but I like sports so let me throw a ton of money at stuff.� That is not how smart, rich people shop. Bad actors out there don�t just want us to buy into this false caricature of �the rich man who has so much money, he doesn�t care, it�s a rounding error to him.� They want us to believe an army of this fictitious creature has descended upon the hobby.

Anyways, you brew all this together, and what we get is today. And to be sure, this storm does indeed generate some �real� sales.

Ultimately, a binary set of reactions emerges. We can be happy our cards are worth more� but we may find they are not, if we try to legitimately sell them. And many collectors love their collections and do not want to sell, which renders their new worth moot.

Or, we can realize that this mess is fundamentally toxic to the market and hobby, and to a collector its only real effect is rising prices for what you�d like to buy.

So pragmatically speaking, more money is coming out of collectors� pockets. A collector wants to keep his collection and add to his collection, not sell his collection or pieces of it into a storm largely whipped up by unethical actors. I don�t know many guys shaking pom poms and jumping for joy because the value of cards they have zero intention to sell has allegedly gone up. They�re looking at the cost of what they�d still like to buy� and when they look into the cause(s) they see lots of shade in a market with zero regulation.

I�ve found a path to staying happy is simply continuing to enjoy my collection, and refusing to add cards that I feel have been swept up in the storm surge. I enjoyed my cards when they would have lost me money upon selling, and I enjoy them the same and not an iota more now that they might make me some loot if I sold. Because I�m not a seller. Nor am I some quasi-pseudo wannabe day trader mini Gordon Gekko who conflates his cards with stocks. I�m a baseball card collector. And I can choose to not be a buyer. Which renders the madness moot. When there�s a storm or bad weather I�ll hang inside and have a blast enjoying my cards, so it�s still all good.

I am the first in line for a good conspiracy theory. That said I find it hard to wrap y head around the idea that the supposed manipulation you speak of is stretching as far and wide as the market shift appears to be - across all auction houses and EBay, across all sports and must be hundreds if not thousands of different cards. That would have to be one hell of a level of organization.
That said, I agree there are multiple instances of manipulation and shilling and people just trying to create suckers out of many. I just choose not to believe that is the majority of what is going on.
If you look at the relative values of baseball cards compared to other more mature collectible categories, the values of the "top of the market" stuff hasn't been in the same league (pun intended). As I have shared in many prior posts - the card market ultimately is one of simple supply and demand economics. There is no question as to a finite supply -whether 3, 300, 3000, or 3000000. So demand and price are the 2 fluctuating variables here. I do believe the majority of the demand spike is real. Will it last? A lot better shot on low population items. 300+ PSA 10 Jordan rookies? That one would be making me nervous.
I believe some of the price spikes we are seeing will stick. I believe others will not. Time will tell.
Buy with your head, not over it and buy what you like!

MattyC · #2 02-13-2021, 12:18 PM

I agree much of what we are seeing today will stick; some waters may recede a bit, and other hitherto “slept on” cards may even wind up getting more deserved appreciation in terms of attention — and then further rising in value if collectors all feel that way and act accordingly with their wallets. Just to be clear, in my post I do not point to one type of manipulation as the cause for this current climate, and I also take into account and acknowledge how once Fear Of Missing Out is ignited by fake sales, that very powerful dynamic alone leads to price spikes across the vast sea of different cards. And those rising prices can certainly be viewed as legitimate, despite their initial spark. As to fake sales, there are myriad guys out there pulling fake sales with myriad cards; it’s not just one cadre by any means. It is when all these many ingredients come together that we get what is happening today.

swarmee · #3 02-13-2021, 12:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MattyC

I agree much of what we are seeing today will stick

So good question, and I did research on one card which was part of the initial explosion of modern basketball card prices.

The 2018-19 Panini Prizm Silver Prism (what Topps calls a base refractor) Luka Doncic RC. Initially it started selling in the hundreds when they were first getting graded. Then the "bass card/Prizm revolution" started happening and the cards shot up to the thousands fairly quickly. My thoughts at the time were that this is unsustainable, and that every new card graded would flood the market and the price would crater. That doesn't seem to be happening based on this graph. This specific card is being absorbed into the market at a rate of about 2 cards selling for $8K each EVERY DAY. There are ~2000 PSA 10s of the Luka Silver Prizm, and almost 2000 PSA 9s. The base chrome/Prizm of the same card has nearly 16K PSA 10 copies, and those are averaging $1200 each selling gobs every day.

That is mind-blowing, and it's only one example. There was a thread only last summer (mid-2020) about the $42K sale price for a PSA 10 1986 Fleer Jordan RC and was it too much? As we all know, they shot to $100K, then $200K, and the last couple have sold for $700K. But there are many less of them than there are Doncic Silver Prizms.

They fixed the PSA multi-lot sales and the graph is much more readable now

todeen · #4 02-13-2021, 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hcv123

I am the first in line for a good conspiracy theory. That said I find it hard to wrap y head around the idea that the supposed manipulation you speak of is stretching as far and wide as the market shift appears to be...

I don't think there's any conspiracy about it. MattyC's post had more to do with factors, avenues of investing, and who the supposed "gurus" are. I do agree with the rest of your post about supply and demand. I would even go so far as to say that there could be 5000 PSA 10 Fleer Jordan RCs, and it's price would still be going bonkers due to his image and popularity.

MattyC's post reminded me of the supposed JFK Sr quote, "When I was getting stock advice from the shoe shine boy I decided it was time to sell." MattyC, IMO was spot on discussing factors. The avenues of investing in sports cards has grown significantly due to social media, youtube, and population reports (which are highly inaccurate and misleading). This has led to an influx of new investors in our hobby who are inexperienced, and an influx of snake oil salesmen. Savvy new collectors will learn for themselves. But there are many blind investors who are willing to forego common sense and stick with the self proclaimed "prophets." All of the workers at Enron knew better than to narrow their stock portfolios by investing only in company stock, but they did it anyway. And they got burned by "those in authority."

rjackson44 · #5 02-13-2021, 03:04 PM

Im buying vintage hockey

Seven · #6 02-13-2021, 03:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rjackson44

Im buying vintage hockey

I think that's a smart move. Granted I don't follow it too much but Gretzky and Orr have been bringing in big numbers, I'd imagine guys like Bobby Hull would be next

68Hawk · #7 02-13-2021, 04:03 PM

I find the shrieking odd.
When it was vintage going gang busters 20years ago/19/18/17...counting down until today, some people mildly said surely this wouldn't last, they'd wait it out, prices would drop and then they'd buy in.
But it never has.
In fact, vintage is also rising in factors.
But it's beloved here, so somehow it's understandable that a peck and snider red stockings can cost what it does.
But modern? Sheesh, MUST be manipulation.

For guys who collect cardboard and pay the prices you do, for lets say a red cobb of which there are thousands, but pay multiplyers because of different ad on the back, to screech about modern and parallels or color border or background differences making those more valuable by multiplyers....is inane.

You realize it's ALL cardboard right?
And just pictures of sporting players adoring them?
And that today's populace might have a connection to the sporting heroes of their day more so than ones they never saw live or in nothing more than stilted moving black and white is logical, right?

While there are ALWAYS unscrupulous or questionable practices going on in ANY valued commodity, check out the number of unique ebay members trading cards on ebay. Then add social media sites.
The rise in prices is because this is no longer considered an oddball way spending your hard earned, and with greater competition comes driven up prices.
The extreme high end goes up by a factor, there are people with lots of money for whom paying double doesn't change their lives and they must compete against other similarly well heeled collectors.
But the rest is generally collected by people just like you and I. Perhaps with less hobby history, but who love owning and looking at a cool sports card every bit as much.
Do people not want to miss out, on the assumption prices may continue to rise? Sure. I did the same when my wife and I bought our first house.
It seemed impossibly expensive to entertain, but it was clear waiting would only INCREASE our dilemma and we wanted to enter the market.

Someone above posted they can't imagine intermingling their 'investment' with their nostalgic joy of their collection.
I'm the opposite.
When I buy a home I buy it because I love it, AND i believe that because I love it my good taste will be reflected by others also loving it down the road when I need to sell it.
That gives me comfort, to be invested in something I love owning and cherish and ALSO believe will have great tangible down the road return.

Super surprised that guys who invested heavily into one sector of the hobby can be so truculent about your sibling part of the hobby.

samosa4u · #8 02-13-2021, 05:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rjackson44

Im buying vintage hockey

Sorry - you missed the boat!

btcarfagno · #9 02-14-2021, 08:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hcv123

I am the first in line for a good conspiracy theory. That said I find it hard to wrap y head around the idea that the supposed manipulation you speak of is stretching as far and wide as the market shift appears to be - across all auction houses and EBay, across all sports and must be hundreds if not thousands of different cards. That would have to be one hell of a level of organization.
That said, I agree there are multiple instances of manipulation and shilling and people just trying to create suckers out of many. I just choose not to believe that is the majority of what is going on.
If you look at the relative values of baseball cards compared to other more mature collectible categories, the values of the "top of the market" stuff hasn't been in the same league (pun intended). As I have shared in many prior posts - the card market ultimately is one of simple supply and demand economics. There is no question as to a finite supply -whether 3, 300, 3000, or 3000000. So demand and price are the 2 fluctuating variables here. I do believe the majority of the demand spike is real. Will it last? A lot better shot on low population items. 300+ PSA 10 Jordan rookies? That one would be making me nervous.
I believe some of the price spikes we are seeing will stick. I believe others will not. Time will tell.
Buy with your head, not over it and buy what you like!

Also it's not just cards. Vintage movie posters are seeing some unreal prices recently as well.

Exhibitman · #10 02-14-2021, 10:12 AM

I had a rather disturbing and perhaps emblematic inquiry from a buyer on an expensive card. In context, the card is a hot one and I decided to push the envelope and ask for a BIN price above the most recent sale a grade higher than the one I had. They guy first bombarded me with emails asking to buy the card for 25% less, which I ignored. I will just quote his last email so you can see what it is:

"Hi, I ended up hitting the buy it now. If it isn't too much of a problem, can I pay on Monday or Tuesday? I'm trying to get it on my next credit card cycle. Wife is killing me with this months bill as it is."

I am not this guy's keeper so I am not going to cancel the sale but when people are going into debt and hiding card purchases from their wives, that's a warning sign as far as I am concerned.

Johnny630 · #11 02-14-2021, 10:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I had a rather disturbing and perhaps emblematic inquiry from a buyer on an expensive card. In context, the card is a hot one and I decided to push the envelope and ask for a BIN price above the most recent sale a grade higher than the one I had. They guy first bombarded me with emails asking to buy the card for 25% less, which I ignored. I will just quote his last email so you can see what it is:

"Hi, I ended up hitting the buy it now. If it isn't too much of a problem, can I pay on Monday or Tuesday? I'm trying to get it on my next credit card cycle. Wife is killing me with this months bill as it is."

I am not this guy's keeper so I am not going to cancel the sale but when people are going into debt and hiding card purchases from their wives, that's a warning sign as far as I am concerned.

This is a disturbing bad trend, people starting to get irrational. Believing all the hype, I hope this settles down back to reality.

Exhibitman · #12 02-14-2021, 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Johnny630

This is a disturbing bad trend, people starting to get irrational. Believing all the hype, I hope this settles down back to reality.

Irrational exuberance. Where have we seen that before? People buying cards that they have no business buying, frothy popular press stories on the gold rush aspects of cards, lines out the door at card stores. Sounds like the last expansion wave of a bubble.

Johnny630 · #13 02-14-2021, 10:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Irrational exuberance. Where have we seen that before? People buying cards that they have no business buying, frothy popular press stories on the gold rush aspects of cards, lines out the door at card stores. Sounds like the last expansion wave of a bubble.

A lot of bad patterns are setting up.....Certain things are going to remain safe just like certain things are very dangerous. People can be their own worst enemy.

When everyone is buying it’s a good time take a breather and back off. If you miss it you miss it. If it fundamentally doesn’t make sense to me I can’t buy into it. Going up sure that’s natural, not at these levels and not in this grand scale. It’s not that easy everything doesn’t always continue to go up, some people are believing it does those are the ones that may get hurt doing ridiculous stuff.

Exhibitman · #14 02-14-2021, 10:50 AM

There are some cards that I think are just fundamentally worth having for the long term. I don't see them worth enough yet to justify selling right now and taking the tax hit when I think they will be worth good money when I retire and start selling to supplement my income. Some cards are from my childhood collection. I have no interest in selling those ever; pry them from my cold, dead fingers or just toss them in the casket with me. But the rest? I don't see much choice when I can do 500%-1000% in a few years of holding or less. It is a conundrum for a collector. Better than the opposite problem for sure...

Tyruscobb · #15 02-14-2021, 10:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I had a rather disturbing and perhaps emblematic inquiry from a buyer on an expensive card. In context, the card is a hot one and I decided to push the envelope and ask for a BIN price above the most recent sale a grade higher than the one I had. They guy first bombarded me with emails asking to buy the card for 25% less, which I ignored. I will just quote his last email so you can see what it is:

"Hi, I ended up hitting the buy it now. If it isn't too much of a problem, can I pay on Monday or Tuesday? I'm trying to get it on my next credit card cycle. Wife is killing me with this months bill as it is."

I am not this guy's keeper so I am not going to cancel the sale but when people are going into debt and hiding card purchases from their wives, that's a warning sign as far as I am concerned.

Your potential warning sign reminds me of the one Joe Kennedy received, and acted on, a few weeks before 1929�s crash. A few weeks before the crash, Kennedy overheard a shoeshine boy intelligently discussing the market and giving tips. Kennedy famously stated, �[w]hen the shoeshine boys have tips, the market is too popular for its own good.� He exited the market soon thereafter and saved his fortune. Will you do the same?

Exhibitman · #16 02-14-2021, 10:53 AM

I have been...see above post. But

Rich Klein · #17 02-14-2021, 01:38 PM

FYI:

In my other world, the one where most collectors exist, the prices on TOPPS FREAKING SERIES 1 Boxes are just out of control. Mind you this is TOPPS FREAKING SERIES 1, The flagship product for this sports card hobby.

https://www.dacardworld.com/search?S...es+1+Baseball+

Note: $29.95 is not totally terrible for a blaster box as after taxes it this is about 25 percent higher than if you bought it at a big box score.

Note the prices on the Hobby Box (Double SRP) and Jumbo (not sure what original SRP was)., And yes people are paying these numbers for these boxes.

Regards
Rich

swarmee · #18 02-14-2021, 02:18 PM

Just look what the MSRP on a box of Donruss Basketball Hobby is at... Topps must be a bargain?

DeanH3 · #19 02-14-2021, 10:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I had a rather disturbing and perhaps emblematic inquiry from a buyer on an expensive card. In context, the card is a hot one and I decided to push the envelope and ask for a BIN price above the most recent sale a grade higher than the one I had. They guy first bombarded me with emails asking to buy the card for 25% less, which I ignored. I will just quote his last email so you can see what it is:

"Hi, I ended up hitting the buy it now. If it isn't too much of a problem, can I pay on Monday or Tuesday? I'm trying to get it on my next credit card cycle. Wife is killing me with this months bill as it is."

I am not this guy's keeper so I am not going to cancel the sale but when people are going into debt and hiding card purchases from their wives, that's a warning sign as far as I am concerned.

Hopefully this guy doesn't try and get a refund through eBay's generous refund policy in six months if the market drops significantly by then. That's one aspect of selling expensive cards through ebay that has scares the heck out of me.

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