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Once people get their ass's back to work and stop pretend zooming all day while looking at E-Bay and other outlets spending money instead spend the day sitting in traffic jams thinking about the next vacation to spend their cash on will the bubble burst. Only my opinion..
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*********** USAF Veteran 84-94 *********** |
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__________________
Looking to Buy: Tickets/Stubs: Hank Aaron 714 HR Hank Aaron 715 HR Gehrig Appreciate Day Shot Heard Round the World 1975 WS Game 6 1st All Star Game 1933 1986 WS Game 6 1988 WS Game 1 Dents HR 1978 Harvey Haddix May 29, 1959 Babe Ruth Called Shot 1955 WS Game 7 Bartman Game - Cubs Billy Goat Game - Cubs Black Cat Game - Cubs Ray Chapman Hit Brett Pine Tar Game Merkles Boner |
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This current bubble has shades of it all. The dot com valuations of 2000, the inflated home prices of 2008, and the possibility of a 70’s Nixon style inflation that killed the nifty fifty back in ‘73. Interesting that the nifty fifty, or the country’s fastest growing large caps is analogous to FANG/tech. Which is plausible as we move away from zero bound discount rates, impacting growth company valuations the most (as their terminal out year values are shrunk by a rising discount rate). If you were wondering why growth underperformed value (dividend/materials/energy/financials), this is why. This may not happen, we may continue to get a Goldilocks economy for a little longer because the economic disparity is creating a very unbalanced economy not conducive to sustained inflation. But the risk is still there. Long winded way of saying herd mentality is a signal on how much juice is left to squeeze, but not necessarily for a top or end of the bull run. FOMO and herd mentality can last for a while - exemplified in this 12+ year bull run in the market. “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.” - John Templeton And yet I find it interesting outside of the MDs, none of the analysts have been around the last time there was a bear market... Last edited by joshuanip; 02-24-2021 at 09:04 PM. Reason: My initial post was more crappier than this one |
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