Will you get vaccinated against COVID once it's available?

G1911 · #1 05-19-2021, 07:12 PM

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Peter_Spaeth · #2 05-19-2021, 07:15 PM

What ill motive do you ascribe to this group of scientists and statisticians around the world?

 View ORCID ProfileJeremy Howard, Austin Huang,  View ORCID ProfileZhiyuan Li,  View ORCID ProfileZeynep Tufekci, Vladimir Zdimal,  View ORCID ProfileHelene-Mari van der Westhuizen,  View ORCID ProfileArne von Delft,  View ORCID ProfileAmy Price, Lex Fridman,  View ORCID ProfileLei-Han Tang,  View ORCID ProfileViola Tang,  View ORCID ProfileGregory L. Watson,  View ORCID ProfileChristina E. Bax,  View ORCID ProfileReshama Shaikh,  View ORCID ProfileFrederik Questier, Danny Hernandez,  View ORCID ProfileLarry F. Chu,  View ORCID ProfileChristina M. Ramirez, and  View ORCID ProfileAnne W. Rimoin

afast.ai, San Francisco, CA 94105;

bData Institute, University of San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94105;

cWarren Alpert School of Medicine, Brown University, Providence, RI 02903;

dCenter for Quantitative Biology, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;

eSchool of Information, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599;

fInstitute of Chemical Process Fundamentals, Czech Academy of Sciences, CZ-165 02 Praha 6, Czech Republic;

gDepartment of Primary Health Care Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford OX2 6GG, United Kingdom;

hTB Proof, Cape Town 7130, South Africa;

iSchool of Public Health and Family Medicine, University of Cape Town, Cape Town 7925, South Africa;

jAnesthesia Informatics and Media Lab, School of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305;

kDepartment of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139;

lDepartment of Physics, Hong Kong Baptist University, Hong Kong SAR, China;

mComplex Systems Division, Beijing Computational Science Research Center, Beijing 100193, China;

nDepartment of Information Systems, Business Statistics and Operations Management, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong SAR, China;

oDepartment of Biostatistics, Jonathan and Karin Fielding School of Public Health, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095;

pPerelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104;

qData Umbrella, New York, NY 10031;

rTeacher Education Department, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, 1050 Brussels, Belgium;

sOpenAI, San Francisco, CA 94110;

tDepartment of Epidemiology, Jonathan and Karin Fielding School of Public Health, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095

Peter_Spaeth · #3 05-19-2021, 07:18 PM

Your appeal to authority mantra is a straw man by the way. I am not suggesting anything is true simply because someone in authority said it is. By your logic nobody could ever cite to any study.

G1911 · #4 05-19-2021, 07:31 PM

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Peter_Spaeth · #5 05-19-2021, 07:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by G1911

No, an appeal to authority is a fallacy. Claiming it is not is a straw man.

It is a logical fallacy in the abstract I agree, but I am not appealing to authority. I am citing the CONTENT of the study and asking why you disagree with its apparent conclusions. Certainly one can consider the credentials of the authors as supporting the conclusions without being guilty of a naked appeal to authority argument.

If you say something and I point out it's inconsistent with Einstein's theory of relativity, have I only appealed to authority?

G1911 · #6 05-19-2021, 07:36 PM

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G1911 · #7 05-19-2021, 07:34 PM

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Peter_Spaeth · #8 05-19-2021, 07:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by G1911

I do not claim the special ability to read minds and know a persons motive, but I do claim to be able to see science's take in through early March, 2020 and in late March 2020 and see the complete 180 without any new data, or use of control groups (kind of a key part of actual science). I also claim to be able to look at the state figures and see that mask-heavy states are not doing better. I'd love for you to be able to explain to me why science was incorrect until late March, 2020. Talk about straw mans....

Yes controls are always preferable but sometimes not practical.

Science changes constantly, and at least reading the article suggests they did a really deep dive and critical reexamination of the data. If there was bias, financial self-interest, etc. that would certainly be a factor to consider, but I don't see that.

G1911 · #9 05-19-2021, 07:44 PM

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Peter_Spaeth · #10 05-19-2021, 07:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by G1911

The 2019 study I linked, from the CDC, used controls. 10 RCT's even. Why is it only now, after the narrative switch, that they cannot use controls?

With controls, they found that masks do no nothing to stop transmission (which was expected as this is not what these masks were made to do). After the narrative switch, they abandoned controls and now conclude the opposite. Why would I believe the unctrolled studies over the same groups controlled studies?

Well for one you're in the middle of an active pandemic, pretty hard to set up an RCT for masks on a global basis.

They certainly discussed the RCTs in this section.
Reviews and RCTs of Mask Use for Other Respiratory Illnesses.

Also, they noted this:
The standard RCT paradigm is well suited to medical interventions in which a treatment has a measurable effect at the individual level and, furthermore, interventions and their outcomes are independent across persons comprising a target population.

By contrast, the effect of masks on a pandemic is a population-level outcome where individual-level interventions have an aggregate effect on their community as a system.

G1911 · #11 05-19-2021, 07:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Well for one you're in the middle of an active pandemic, pretty hard to set up an RCT for masks on a global basis.

I'll even assume that this is true and it is now impossible to use controls. Does it not still suggest that the earlier studies are better, because they use controls? Why should I ignore the science before March, 2020 and just accept whatever the CDC says after March 2020?

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