Recent price action

cardsagain74 · #1 05-26-2021, 02:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by egri

It'll be interesting to see if this spills over into real estate, stocks, etc. The S&P 500 is down for the month, and I'm a member of a couple watch collecting forums where they're seeing the same bubble effect we have, and the attendant rise in speculators, flippers and a lot of the same complaints I've seen raised here.

I've seen a few posts like this in the last couple weeks and I just don't get it.

The S&P isn't even down this month actually. It's flat. Given the modest inflation fears that have percolated lately (ones that can easily cause a noticeable selloff for awhile), that's an awful strong performance for a market which is 1% off all time highs and that's been on a tear. A tear for not just the last year, but the last 40 years.

I'm not saying that Wall Street hasn't peaked for now. But given how impossibly strong the market continues to be (and the endless flow of 401 k money into it that shows no signs of stopping), good luck calling a top.

As far as sportscards go, as others have said, the overall phases that've happened lately are common. Modern/fad-type stuff/cards with the most extended 20-30x leaps getting hit the hardest. Boring blue chips with great, but not insane gains should hold on a lot better

Funny thing is that if you told someone that their Jordan PSA 10 rookie had gone from 30 k to 300 k in a year and a half (without them knowing that the peak was more than twice that), they still would've thought it was the most amazing thing ever

egri · #2 05-26-2021, 05:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cardsagain74

I've seen a few posts like this in the last couple weeks and I just don't get it.

The S&P isn't even down this month actually. It's flat. Given the modest inflation fears that have percolated lately (ones that can easily cause a noticeable selloff for awhile), that's an awful strong performance for a market which is 1% off all time highs and that's been on a tear. A tear for not just the last year, but the last 40 years.

I'm not saying that Wall Street hasn't peaked for now. But given how impossibly strong the market continues to be (and the endless flow of 401 k money into it that shows no signs of stopping), good luck calling a top.

As far as sportscards go, as others have said, the overall phases that've happened lately are common. Modern/fad-type stuff/cards with the most extended 20-30x leaps getting hit the hardest. Boring blue chips with great, but not insane gains should hold on a lot better

Funny thing is that if you told someone that their Jordan PSA 10 rookie had gone from 30 k to 300 k in a year and a half (without them knowing that the peak was more than twice that), they still would've thought it was the most amazing thing ever

I just checked and you're right; I guess after the runup in the past year, treading water feels like a downturn!

I think a lot of the people who have jumped onboard in the past year don't have very strong memories of the 2008 crash or other downturns (not counting the selloff last spring because that recovered so quickly). I see it with my sailors who are talking about getting in to real estate and other investments; they think they only go one direction, up. I've tried warning them that elevator has a down button as well, but if they want to learn from experience, well that's their decision.

AMBST95 · #3 05-26-2021, 06:27 PM

PSA finally getting caught up is going to continue to hurt the ultramodern market. I'd expect some new collectors will stick around so overall the market will be better than it was before the big climb but no where near the peaks. Auctions have been down the past month or so and I'm hoping they continue to drop going in to the summer.

puckpaul · #4 05-27-2021, 04:26 AM

I do think on the more modern stuff, supply has finally been brought out to match or sometimes overwhelm demand. So we are definitely in a correction period. For instance, Classic Auctions has 54 Gretzky rookies this month! Today the past few years there would be 3-10. so prices still strong but no way they will hold up except maybe the ultra high end where rarity still might exist. The grading backlog and time it takes for supply to catch up definitely fueled the runup.

Perhaps the 40-60% retracement in crypto prices is affecting the silly money a little, for now, as well.

NOT seeing 54 Wajo portraits in one auction, though supply of prewar is up a fair bit, too, on the less rare stuff. The expense of grading will keep a lid on the supply as well.

chriskim · #5 05-27-2021, 07:54 AM

Just need to compare the prices of 1986 Fleer Jordan RC PSA10 then we know the market is going south and head back to "normal". That card was at a $640K level (sold at that price twice in the same auction) and now down to $250K. It should back down to a 5 figure card by EOY.

Johnny630 · #6 05-27-2021, 11:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chriskim

Just need to compare the prices of 1986 Fleer Jordan RC PSA10 then we know the market is going south and head back to "normal". That card was at a $640K level (sold at that price twice in the same auction) and now down to $250K. It should back down to a 5 figure card by EOY.

IMO those were never real numbers, were all BS. That's just me. I think they were artificially inflated by investor groups to run up the under cards.

egbeachley · #7 05-27-2021, 03:07 PM

....and then a Gretzky RC sells for $3.75 million......

Peter_Spaeth · #8 05-27-2021, 04:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Johnny630

IMO those were never real numbers, were all BS. That's just me. I think they were artificially inflated by investor groups to run up the under cards.

I suspect the same on many of the prices that were on Mars.

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