Future of cards shows

[Johnny630]

I think a lot depends on the United States economic conditions, if inflation is only transitory like Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says then we should be OK. I have a feeling it’s going to be a little more rough than transitory.

[Hankphenom]

Based on what I saw and heard at the Philly show, I think this year is going to be gangbusters. The National will be crazy, I think.

[packs]

Primed for a collapse. My predication is that shows will be heavily attended in the immediate short-term, which will likely tempt organizers to lease larger and larger spaces until people lose interest, which they inevitably will because most of the money in the hobby is not coming from collectors. At that point promoters will have overextended themselves and rather than a boom we are likely going to see a bust that will result in even less shows than there typically are.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by packs

Primed for a collapse. My predication is that shows will be heavily attended in the immediate short-term, which will likely tempt organizers to lease larger and larger spaces until people lose interest, which they inevitably will because most of the money in the hobby is not coming from collectors. At that point promoters will have overextended themselves and rather than a boom we are likely going to see a bust that will result in even less shows than there typically are.

You Made a Key Point Here, “most of the money in the Hobby is not coming from the collectors”.

That Statement is 100% Truth.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by packs

most of the money in the hobby is not coming from collectors.

Who were all those younger folks packing the room and crowding around tables at Philly? Speculators looking to make a quick buck on a hot hobby? Maybe, but there had to be a fair number of collectors among them.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

Who were all those younger folks packing the room and crowding around tables at Philly? Speculators looking to make a quick buck on a hot hobby? Maybe, but there had to be a fair number of collectors among them.

Yes I don’t know how many times I’ve heard them say dude I’m going to make so much money off this card I can’t believe I got this!!

Collect haha they collect money

Not all but I’m being series.

[packs]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

Who were all those younger folks packing the room and crowding around tables at Philly? Speculators looking to make a quick buck on a hot hobby? Maybe, but there had to be a fair number of collectors among them.

Maybe one total collector. I was growing up in the 90s. Do you know how many of my friends collected Pokemon cards? Nearly all of them. Do you know how many collected a single card after the initial fad? None of them.

[bbcard1]

I sold my advertising company right before COVID and had intended to get back in to show promotion. I was pretty successful back in the day, did a lot with CSA and I understand the marketing part pretty well.

I think there is a great opportunity for the 30-50 table local/regional show with free or inexpensive autograph guests, much like the 80s and 90s. This has been made viable by the increasing fees of eBay and a general uptick in interest. I am planning on promoting a few shows in 2022. We'll see if I'm right.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by bbcard1

I am planning on promoting a few shows in 2022. We'll see if I'm right.

According to the consensus here so far, nobody will be coming to your shows by then.

[Snapolit1]

A tremendous amount of "energy" in the hobby, for lack of a better word, is from 20-30 year olds who are into case breaking. The price points for some of these new high end cases (basketball and football particularly) are like $7000 - $10,000. Younger people speculating that they will get the next PSA 9 Zion or Jasson Dominquez card that will fetch $200,000. They are also the ones who have swamped PSA. Including with Pokemon and Magic cards. Once they realize that shows are not an effective way of feeding their gambling jones, they will move on.

I've been fascinated with the breaking scene for a while and have dipped my toe in it a bit. It's amazing to me when I see a personal break of some new football release where some dude has paid $6,000 for a box of ten cards. The odds of making a profit on that box is minuscule. But to each his own. I just shutter to think whose dropping $6,000 to take a shot like that. If I paid $6,000 and ended up with $350 in cards I would likely be in a pretty bad mood for a while.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

A tremendous amount of "energy" in the hobby, for lack of a better word, is from 20-30 year olds who are into case breaking. The price points for some of these new high end cases (basketball and football particularly) are like $7000 - $10,000. Younger people speculating that they will get the next PSA 9 Zion or Jasson Dominquez card that will fetch $200,000. They are also the ones who have swamped PSA. Including with Pokemon and Magic cards. Once they realize that shows are not an effective way of feeding their gambling jones, they will move on.

I've been fascinated with the breaking scene for a while and have dipped my toe in it a bit. It's amazing to me when I see a personal break of some new football release where some dude has paid $6,000 for a box of ten cards. The odds of making a profit on that box is minuscule. But to each his own. I just shutter to think whose dropping $6,000 to take a shot like that. If I paid $6,000 and ended up with $350 in cards I would likely be in a pretty bad mood for a while.

I think it’s the thrill of the rush, kinda like sports book and gambling.

Can be Fun But Can Also Lose You a Lot of Cash Quick.

More People are profiting off it selling these breaks not buying to them.

[Hankphenom]

OK, I give in, you guys seem very sure of yourselves. This is all musical chairs and absolutely nobody is actually collecting any of it, is that right? I don't even know what Pokemon is, but I guess it's made a comeback for a while, anyway. At least these folks are learning how to be good American entrepreneurs--cash in, make a quick buck, and the devil to the hindmost!

[Eric72]

I, for one, am glad there are such a variety of people in the hobby. If everyone collected what I collect, and did so the same way, the hobby (for me) would be even more expensive than it is now.

Some twenty-something is spending hundreds or thousands for their spot in a case break? If they can afford it and they're having fun, I see nothing wrong with it. Plus, they're not competing with me for T206, '56 Topps, and Mantle/Jackie/Clemente/Aaron/Mays.

Are half (or more) of these newcomers going to be gone in a year? Quite possibly. However, those who remain will be the future of the hobby...just like people my age were back in the 80s.

The landscape has changed over the past year. I've embraced it. Now, more than ever, I'm guided by a simple philosophy:

Collect what you like.
Like what you collect.
Leave the rest for everyone else.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by packs

Maybe one total collector. I was growing up in the 90s. Do you know how many of my friends collected Pokemon cards? Nearly all of them. Do you know how many collected a single card after the initial fad? None of them.

Just curious, why were they buying them in the first place? Because their friends were? Looking to make a quick buck? So there was no inherent appeal to these things at all? Sorry, but it sounds like a generation of sheep to me, that's really depressing.

[packs]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

Just curious, why were they buying them in the first place? Because their friends were? Looking to make a quick buck? So there was no inherent appeal to these things at all? Sorry, but it sounds like a generation of sheep to me, that's really depressing.

The appeal was that they were new and there was a Gameboy game to go along with them. Not to mention the gimmicky motto "Collect them all!".

Today, people will pay $100K plus for a PSA 10 Charizard. That is the total appeal of Pokemon cards now. What you might be able to sell a card you might get for. It isn't limited to Pokemon either. That is the same appeal that all major sports releases play to.

How else do explain why a hobby box of UFC cards costs over a thousand dollars? Nobody likes UFC that much.

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

Just curious, why were they buying them in the first place? Because their friends were? Looking to make a quick buck? So there was no inherent appeal to these things at all? Sorry, but it sounds like a generation of sheep to me, that's really depressing.

My kids played with Pokemon and later Magic cards for hours and hours and hours. Of course once you actually played with these cards, good bye any chance at submitting them for any kind of high grade.

[Eric72]

Originally Posted by packs

...I was growing up in the 90s...

I find that truly surprising, no offense intended.

Your Net54 persona strikes me as more of a "get off my lawn" retiree than someone in their 40s.

[glynparson]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

Who were all those younger folks packing the room and crowding around tables at Philly? Speculators looking to make a quick buck on a hot hobby? Maybe, but there had to be a fair number of collectors among them.

I agree with this 100% but for some reason a select group would rather just always wish for the worst and focus on the negative. There are far more collectors than some of these people like to pretend just like some of the "true collectors" seem to worry about value more than they let on. Hobby looks strong will there be a pull back of course there always is no market is constantly rising but I think we don't end up worse than we were before the pandemic just seems illogical.

[Jewish-collector]

I think the kids (with all the money you see at the shows) are just the children of these wealthy non-collector guys, who recently have been buying the record breaking Michael Jordan rookies, Trout rookies, Lebron rookies, etc,... and they give their sons $20,000 to make it grow.

[packs]

Even the board has been touched by the non-collector draw of the hobby. How many threads have there been over the last year speculating on the long-term value of certain cards or posts asking what cards will appreciate over others, etc.

[perezfan]

Originally Posted by Jewish-collector

I think the kids (with all the money you see at the shows) are just the children of these wealthy non-collector guys, who recently have been buying the record breaking Michael Jordan rookies, Trout rookies, Lebron rookies, etc,... and they give their sons $20,000 to make it grow.

You might be right. Check out this 15 year-old kid. He's already a skilled negotiator and really knows his stuff ("stuff" meaning the cards' values). It's a long video, but if you forward to the 6:35 mark, you'll get a quick glimpse of his '52 Topps Mantle and '53 Topps Jackie.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uUlCGQDbUQc&t=1358s

Those 2 cards appear to be afterthoughts to the prospective trade partner, as he rifles through the kid's collection to look for Brady, Wade, Mahomes and some soccer cards. No idea how the kid got this kind of money, but would guess his parents played a major role!

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

I think a lot depends on the United States economic conditions, if inflation is only transitory like Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says then we should be OK. I have a feeling it’s going to be a little more rough than transitory.

This.