First Vintage Set - Graded vs. Raw?

[savedfrommyspokes]

With the exception of the 1952 Topps set, I have built all of my sets from the 1950 Bowman set through the late 70s Topps sets (minus 3 cards each in 51, 53, 54 Bowman sets) mainly raw first. All of my 1952 Topps were collected in the graded form. With my other mostly raw sets, an occasional key graded card that I had from before starting the set would become part of my mostly raw set. Some sets I have built (61-63 Post cereal, 70s Hostess, 65-80 OPC) will remain mostly all raw (primarily due to cost), as I enjoy the binder experience too.

Over the past 15+ years, I have taken multiple sets from mostly raw to the mostly graded/completely graded state. I took this route because I had many of the key cards already graded. My 52, 62, 72, and 75 sets are completely graded, my 57s and 71s are 93% and 98% of the way graded, while several others are 60%+ graded (61, 65, 68, 74). As most of cards needed to finish these sets graded are commons, if the price of graded commons stays down, my goal is to finish these sets fully graded.

My recommendation is to build the sets mostly raw first with only key cards graded , then slowly work the set from raw to graded if funding/desire permits.

[Mbjerry]

Originally Posted by savedfrommyspokes

With the exception of the 1952 Topps set, I have built all of my sets from the 1950 Bowman set through the late 70s Topps sets (minus 3 cards each in 51, 53, 54 Bowman sets) mainly raw first. All of my 1952 Topps were collected in the graded form. With my other mostly raw sets, an occasional key graded card that I had from before starting the set would become part of my mostly raw set. Some sets I have built (61-63 Post cereal, 70s Hostess, 65-80 OPC) will remain mostly all raw (primarily due to cost), as I enjoy the binder experience too.



Over the past 15+ years, I have taken multiple sets from mostly raw to the mostly graded/completely graded state. I took this route because I had many of the key cards already graded. My 52, 62, 72, and 75 sets are completely graded, my 57s and 71s are 93% and 98% of the way graded, while several others are 60%+ graded (61, 65, 68, 74). As most of cards needed to finish these sets graded are commons, if the price of graded commons stays down, my goal is to finish these sets fully graded.



My recommendation is to build the sets mostly raw first with only key cards graded , then slowly work the set from raw to graded if funding/desire permits.

Thanks for the recommendation. Two follow up questions... One, how do you store your graded sets? Two, do you foresee the cost for graded commons going up with the recent grading cost increases?

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[savedfrommyspokes]

Originally Posted by Mbjerry

Thanks for the recommendation. Two follow up questions... One, how do you store your graded sets? Two, do you foresee the cost for graded commons going up with the recent grading cost increases?

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I store my graded cards in two-row "shoeboxes"...a lot of them.

In regards to the cost for collectors (value to current owners) of PSA graded commons going up, yes, I do expect the PSA graded cards currently selling in the $10-50 range will increase in cost/value. Your question has been on my mind a lot the past 6 months, especially since many of the PSA cards in my collection are in the $10-50 range in current market value.

My thought process is IF, the $20 "value" grading option PSA offers returns at $20 (and not more), I feel many of the PSA graded commons from the 50s through the 70s will indeed increase in value.

With the increase in grading costs, for now at least, less submissions will occur at the $20 price point per card than what occurred at the $6-8 price point as current values would not nearly cover the grading cost. Eventually the supply of commons originally graded at a $6-8 price point will dry up causing the power of supply and demand to take over. This lack of supply, due to far fewer new to market slabs, will cause what is now a $10 market value PSA common to ultimately become a $20-25 common. Once the value increases due to low supply, there will be less reluctance to grade a common at the $20 price point which will cause a supply increase thus causing cost/value to stabilize. It would be tough to believe that PSA set builders on the registry would just give up on their quests to build sets and/or leave sets unfinished.

Is it possible many non-excessively populated PSA commons with current values of $50 or less will increase in value by $10-15 each over the next few years due to PSA raising their rates? My guess is yes, highly likely.

Will this happen immediately? IMO, no, not across the board. Not until the supply diminishes. However, in some cases, I have seen spikes on a few cards I am seeking for my sets.

Will this effect higher value cards as much as commons? IMO, no...the increases in grading costs will just be absorbed into the cost of the higher valued cards.

How long will this process take for commons to increase in value? This is the big question....depends on how quick the market adjusts to the diminishing supply. My guess is year(s) versus months

[Mbjerry]

Originally Posted by savedfrommyspokes

I store my graded cards in two-row "shoeboxes"...a lot of them.



In regards to the cost for collectors (value to current owners) of PSA graded commons going up, yes, I do expect the PSA graded cards currently selling in the $10-50 range will increase in cost/value. Your question has been on my mind a lot the past 6 months, especially since many of the PSA cards in my collection are in the $10-50 range in current market value.



My thought process is IF, the $20 "value" grading option PSA offers returns at $20 (and not more), I feel many of the PSA graded commons from the 50s through the 70s will indeed increase in value.



With the increase in grading costs, for now at least, less submissions will occur at the $20 price point per card than what occurred at the $6-8 price point as current values would not nearly cover the grading cost. Eventually the supply of commons originally graded at a $6-8 price point will dry up causing the power of supply and demand to take over. This lack of supply, due to far fewer new to market slabs, will cause what is now a $10 market value PSA common to ultimately become a $20-25 common. Once the value increases due to low supply, there will be less reluctance to grade a common at the $20 price point which will cause a supply increase thus causing cost/value to stabilize. It would be tough to believe that PSA set builders on the registry would just give up on their quests to build sets and/or leave sets unfinished.



Is it possible many non-excessively populated PSA commons with current values of $50 or less will increase in value by $10-15 each over the next few years due to PSA raising their rates? My guess is yes, highly likely.



Will this happen immediately? IMO, no, not across the board. Not until the supply diminishes. However, in some cases, I have seen spikes on a few cards I am seeking for my sets.



Will this effect higher value cards as much as commons? IMO, no...the increases in grading costs will just be absorbed into the cost of the higher valued cards.



How long will this process take for commons to increase in value? This is the big question....depends on how quick the market adjusts to the diminishing supply. My guess is year(s) versus months

Enjoyed reading this. Thanks

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[hcv123]

Specific to the 56 set - I would get Mantle, Clemente, Koufax, Banks, Kaline, Killebrew, Aaron, Aparicio and Mays graded - be picky - in the grade range you are looking at there are huge differences in eye appeal - be willing to spend more for nicer looking cards. The balance of the set I would do raw.

[Mbjerry]

Originally Posted by hcv123

Specific to the 56 set - I would get Mantle, Clemente, Koufax, Banks, Kaline, Killebrew, Aaron, Aparicio and Mays graded - be picky - in the grade range you are looking at there are huge differences in eye appeal - be willing to spend more for nicer looking cards. The balance of the set I would do raw.

Thanks for listing the players. I am leaning towards this strategy.

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[jgannon]

I would say just go raw. Just find some dealers you can trust.

[RayBShotz]

I would advocate for graded if you see yourself selling this at some point in the near or distant future.
Graded has more drawbacks now, however, than even a year ago.
If you are going the PSA route you are currently unable to submit your own raw cards and if and when it finally opens back up it might be prohibitively expensive to do so.
The 56T set looks great in 8 pocket sleeves. I always felt it was cool to look at the set and flip the binder pages from top to bottom vs the typical book page by page.
Good luck either way with this.
It's a great set.
RayB

[Mbjerry]

Originally Posted by RayBShotz

I would advocate for graded if you see yourself selling this at some point in the near or distant future.

Graded has more drawbacks now, however, than even a year ago.

If you are going the PSA route you are currently unable to submit your own raw cards and if and when it finally opens back up it might be prohibitively expensive to do so.

The 56T set looks great in 8 pocket sleeves. I always felt it was cool to look at the set and flip the binder pages from top to bottom vs the typical book page by page.

Good luck either way with this.

It's a great set.

RayB

Thank you. I was unaware of the 8 pocket sleeves. That would look really nice.

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[JollyElm]

The plastic cases housing graded cards might as well be made of gold, because there is such a huge discrepancy in price between the 'same' graded and non-graded cards. You can get a helluva lot more for your money buying ungraded. Many people prefer having slabs to ensure the cards are authentic, but with all the crap coming down the river from PSA, even that is very questionable at times.

I guess what I'm trying to say is, you'll probably have to find a balance that works for you. If you're attending a card show and can really examine the cards to make sure they are authentic, you can make some nice headway buying ungraded cards. On-line, it's a little bit of a tougher undertaking, but the good news is eBay is pretty good (maybe too good) with supporting buyers who feel they've gotten scammed, so there isn't too much real risk involved.

Good luck!!

[cardsagain74]

The last thing I would do is buy graded big cards and then crack them out (especially since you said that the financial factor is a big consideration). If you prefer raw that much and want the conformity of everything in a binder, you're often better off paying up a little bit for raw from really established dealers (which is still naturally cheaper than slabs, especially PSA).

I've spent a lot of time here and there deciding how to best land the kind of '50s key cards that you need for a '56, and I've often ended up with graded for something around a 4 or 5, and raw for anything low grade.

You're right in the middle of that range for your main '56 cards. If I were in your spot, I'd lean toward graded. It's not that cumbersome to get out half a dozen top slabs to look at. It's how my sets have often unfolded

[maniac_73]

I also collect 56T and what I did was buy the biggies graded (Mantle, Mays, Aaron, Robinson, Clemente etc) and the commons raw. That way Im more confident that they aren't counterfeits and if I need to sell quickly I can.