What's up with these t206 sold auction prices ???

53toppscollector · #1 09-12-2021, 09:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RCFire82

Thanks James, didn't catch your response until just now...was mesmerized by the Old Mill Magee.
Do you feel like the 350/25 sweet caporals should command more of a premium than they do ? I get what you're saying about not paying much attention unless it's a back run, but then wouldn't the same logic apply for Piedmont 42's ? And the big difference being where P42's are placed in the back scarcity list versus where the SC 350/25's are placed. Seems like the sweet caps should be moved WAY up the lists that are out there.

Someone with more experience can weigh in, but I think the difference between the SweetCap 25s and 30s is noticeable, but not massively so. I think part of the issue is that PSA did not always differentiate in the early stages of grading, so its hard to have a really accurate count.

For example, if you look at Chance Yellow, PSA lists 363 total SweetCap backs. They then break it down as

350/25 = 18
350/30 = 77
350-460/25 = 27
350-460/30 = 15
350-460/42 = 18
350-460/42OP = 17

That comes out to 172 total....so, there are close to 200 SweetCaps that were not labeled by series/factory. Which is a problem when trying to figure out actual pops. I think the Chance is an exception to the rule too because its a super print. The same goes for how the Piedmonts are represented in the pop report. For Chance Yellow, there are 302 Piedmonts, and then by factory number:

Piedmont 350 = 96
Piedmont 350-460/25 = 41
Piedmont 350-460/42 = 11

That gives you 148...so we are missing over 150 Piedmonts in those totals.

If you look at the Piedmont 350-460 Factory 42, there are a bunch of cards with only a handful of known examples. I'm just focused on portraits, but

Chase (Blue) - there are 4 in the PSA pop report
Murray - there is 1, compared to 63 Factory 25 and 145 total Piedmonts
Schlei - there are 2, compared to 46 Fac 25 and 114 total Piedmonts
Wiltse With Cap - there are 2, compared to 57 Fac 25 and 113 total Piedmonts

SweetCap 25s are more scarce compared to SweetCap 30s, but the raw totals aren't as stark as they are for the Piedmont Factory 42s

53toppscollector · #2 09-12-2021, 09:22 PM

The pop report I created in Excel for my portrait only project combines both SGC and PSA pop reports, but SGC does not break down the SweetCaps by factory number, which is also a huge problem, though at least they break things out by series.

Here are a few notable portraits with very low SweetCap factory 25 counts

Bowerman - SweetCap 150/25 = 5, SweetCap 150/30 = 35
Bridwell No Cap - SweetCap 150/25 = 5, SweetCap 150/30 = 39
Merkle - SweetCap 150/25 = 4, SweetCap 150/30 = 35
Steinfeldt - SweetCap 150/25 = 2, SweetCap 150/30 = 31

Barger - SweetCap 350/25 = 3, SweetCap 350/30 = 31
Bowerman - SweetCap 350/25 = 1, SweetCap 350/30 = 15
Cassidy - SweetCap 350/25 = 2, SweetCap 350/30 = 24
Jimmy Collins - SweetCap 350/25 = 3, SweetCap 350/30 = 41
Kruger - SweetCap 350/25 = 1, SweetCap 350/30 = 43

Moeller and Mullen also only have 1 known 350/25. Then there are some cards where there isn't much of a difference.

Unglaub has 15 Fac 25s and 20 Fac 30s
Lumley has 56 Fac 25s and 54 Fac 30s
Gibson has 56 Fac 25s and 40 Fac 30s

(my numbers were updated a few months ago when I put this together, I figured it wouldn't change drastically so I haven't updated it since)

swarmee · #3 09-13-2021, 09:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 53toppscollector

That comes out to 172 total....so, there are close to 200 SweetCaps that were not labeled by series/factory. Which is a problem when trying to figure out actual pops.

Exactly correct. Early on, PSA just did T206, then added the backs. Then they did the Series (150/350/460). Even later, they added the Factory information.
Early flip (before half grades when Fair was broken apart), just T206:

1909-11 T206 - [Base] - Piedmont 350 Back #HOBA - Home Run Baker [PSA 1 PR]
Courtesy of COMC.com

Flip starting with 209 (maybe 10 years ago): Only "Piedmont"

1909-11 T206 - [Base] - Piedmont 150 Back #BOGA - Bob Ganley [PSA 1 PR]
Courtesy of COMC.com

Flip starting with 246 (maybe 5 years ago): Piedmont 150

1909-11 T206 - [Base] - Piedmont 150 Back #GIBS - George Gibson [PSA 3 VG]
Courtesy of COMC.com

Newest flip info:

1909-11 T206 - [Base] - Piedmont 350-460 Factory No. 25 Back #LADO.2 - Larry Doyle (Portrait) [PSA 3 VG]
Courtesy of COMC.com

Someone would have to pay for reholdering to have all the true flip information added, which doesn't really make much sense unless you're trying for a Master set registry or when you're planning to sell. There are many rare backs that are still only labeled "T206". And PSA still doesn't break out T205 backs, so those are completely blind when it comes to manufacturer.

t206kid · #4 09-13-2021, 10:21 AM

Elite Old Mills will sell for an explosive amount, heavily based on who needs what. Once the really aggro back hunters have a combo, demand can decrease. That's why Devlin and Ames sold at a much different level than even the other decent PG1 OMs.

Everything to be said has been said about pop reports, though Justin and I have a podcast (Episode 7) discussing pros/cons/and how to use.

And, of course, we need a picture of an explosive OM...

53toppscollector · #5 09-13-2021, 11:48 AM

Looking at my master project, here are the cards I am going to need that I have on my list as having a combined PSA/SGC pop of 3 or less

Piedmont 350-460/42

Murray (1)
Schlei (2)
Wiltse w/Cap (2)

SweetCap 150/25

Steinfeldt (2)

SweetCap 350/25

There are 22 players here with 3 or less

SweetCap 350/30

Criger (1)

SweetCap 350-460/42OP

Bridwell w/Cap (2)
Chase Blue (3)

American Beauty 350

Shad Barry (1)

American Beauty 460

Bridwell w/Cap (3)
Doyle (1)
Wiltse w/Cap (3)

Cycle 460

Seymour (1)

Old Mill

Beaumont (3)
Devlin (2)
Doolin (3)
Leach (3)
Lumley (2)
Merkle (1)
Rucker (1)
Steinfeldt (3)

Sovereign 350

Bradley (1)
Clarke (1)

I think both of these might be errors, they show up on the SGC pop report but not on the PSA, and t206 resource doesn't list either on their Sov 350 checklist

Tolstoi

Downs (2)
Easterly (2)
Rossman (1)

Broad Leaf 350 and 460

There are 40 players with 3 or fewer on the combined pop reports for the BL 350, and then Cobb Red has 3 combined

Carolina Brights

There are 12 players with 3 or fewer on the combined pop reports

Drum

It is easier to list the players with 4 or more known copies. It's only Jack Barry. And for all I know, its less than 4 because of crack outs/crossovers

Red Hindu

Bridwell w/Cap (1)

Uzit

Crandall w/Cap (3)
McGraw w/Cap (1)
Murray (1)

So, for those who think the pop reports are overrated, if you have raw copies of those cards, I'd be happy to take them off you for a reasonable price

Eric72 · #6 09-13-2021, 09:54 PM

Here's another somewhat tough Ames:

Sterling Sports Auctions · #7 09-17-2021, 04:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 53toppscollector

Looking at my master project, here are the cards I am going to need that I have on my list as having a combined PSA/SGC pop of 3 or less

Piedmont 350-460/42

Murray (1)
Schlei (2)
Wiltse w/Cap (2)

SweetCap 150/25

Steinfeldt (2)

SweetCap 350/25

There are 22 players here with 3 or less

SweetCap 350/30

Criger (1)

SweetCap 350-460/42OP

Bridwell w/Cap (2)
Chase Blue (3)

American Beauty 350

Shad Barry (1)

American Beauty 460

Bridwell w/Cap (3)
Doyle (1)
Wiltse w/Cap (3)

Cycle 460

Seymour (1)

Old Mill

Beaumont (3)
Devlin (2)
Doolin (3)
Leach (3)
Lumley (2)
Merkle (1)
Rucker (1)
Steinfeldt (3)

Sovereign 350

Bradley (1)
Clarke (1)

I think both of these might be errors, they show up on the SGC pop report but not on the PSA, and t206 resource doesn't list either on their Sov 350 checklist

Tolstoi

Downs (2)
Easterly (2)
Rossman (1)

Broad Leaf 350 and 460

There are 40 players with 3 or fewer on the combined pop reports for the BL 350, and then Cobb Red has 3 combined

Carolina Brights

There are 12 players with 3 or fewer on the combined pop reports

Drum

It is easier to list the players with 4 or more known copies. It's only Jack Barry. And for all I know, its less than 4 because of crack outs/crossovers

Red Hindu

Bridwell w/Cap (1)

Uzit

Crandall w/Cap (3)
McGraw w/Cap (1)
Murray (1)

So, for those who think the pop reports are overrated, if you have raw copies of those cards, I'd be happy to take them off you for a reasonable price

Are you using PSA and SGC reports?

Did you go through each back and find which ones do not even have a pop? I owe one of them. How many more are out there?

You probably got some people overly excited that you outed the extremely low pops. :-)

Lee

53toppscollector · #8 09-17-2021, 05:01 PM

I combined the PSA and SGC pop reports. For any back that is factory specific, its not possible to do a combined pop because SGC does not break it out by factory in their pop report.

There are a bunch of cards where there is no pop in either but a card could theoretically exist.

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