Why do many put so much emphasis on PAST sales??

GasHouseGang · #1 09-25-2021, 03:50 PM

Past sales are used in every market place. That's why price guides have developed over the years. Whether you're talking about cars, houses, or baseball cards, we have used price guides. The guides aren't perfect. They are only guides to help you arrive at a price. Most of the guides used to only come as monthly updates, but now you get nearly daily updates on the web based guides. But the accuracy of these guide depends on the amount of data fed into the guide's database. But if that's not fast enough for you, I guess you can look at the latest ebay sales.
If you aren't going to use some kind of past comparison, how do you ever have any idea what to pay for an item? If you find yourself saying, "This card just sold for x dollars last week on that online auction. I can't sell that cheap." Well, then you are basing your value on past sales.

Carter08 · #2 09-25-2021, 03:56 PM

All I know is I like the signature block of the member that says today�s overpay is tomorrow�s overpay. I�ve had to take comfort in that thought many times.

Carter08 · #3 09-25-2021, 03:56 PM

Tomorrow�s underpay I meant.

MVSNYC · #4 09-25-2021, 04:38 PM

A well-known collector I know says, “You never pay too much, you just pay too soon.”

Carter08 · #5 09-25-2021, 04:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MVSNYC

A well-known collector I know says, �You never pay too much, you just pay too soon.�

That�s perfect.

rats60 · #6 09-25-2021, 05:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MVSNYC

A well-known collector I know says, �You never pay too much, you just pay too soon.�

I just don't want to pay tomorrow's price when tomorrow is long after I am dead. I see more and more people asking "Dean's Cards" prices for their cards.

butchie_t · #7 09-25-2021, 06:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rats60

I just don't want to pay tomorrow's price when tomorrow is long after I am dead. I see more and more people asking "Dean's Cards" prices for their cards.

Hopefully Dean�s does not see this. They will raise theirs even more��

JollyElm · #8 09-25-2021, 07:15 PM

Past sales are definitely a really good starting point if there's enough consistency there.

It's always very helpful to eliminate one or more of the most expensive and least expensive recent sales when determining the average price of similar cards. This will nullify some of the BS high prices coming out of the ridiculous card doctor/shilling d-bags on eBay, as well as the low price aberrations that can occur for a variety of reasons (seller not truly understanding the 'value' of his card when he listed the BIN price, etc.).

The worst part of the past sales conundrum is never being sure what's going to happen tomorrow. Before the COVID explosion of the card market, we all can see now that we would've done extremely well to ignore past sales data and waaay overpay for the big name (for me, post-war) cards - Mantle, Clemente, Mays, Aaron, Ryan, Koufax, etc. - before their prices went crazy. But now that the same market has softened a little/lot, past sales from a couple of months ago are way out of whack with the reality of where prices are probably going today.

HistoricNewspapers · #9 09-26-2021, 11:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GasHouseGang

Past sales are used in every market place. That's why price guides have developed over the years. Whether you're talking about cars, houses, or baseball cards, we have used price guides. The guides aren't perfect. They are only guides to help you arrive at a price. Most of the guides used to only come as monthly updates, but now you get nearly daily updates on the web based guides. But the accuracy of these guide depends on the amount of data fed into the guide's database. But if that's not fast enough for you, I guess you can look at the latest ebay sales.
If you aren't going to use some kind of past comparison, how do you ever have any idea what to pay for an item? If you find yourself saying, "This card just sold for x dollars last week on that online auction. I can't sell that cheap." Well, then you are basing your value on past sales.

I agree with the OP, past sales seem to be a way to not have the courage or ability to read the people and desirability of your product to set your own price, even in the housing market.

I had someone do a cold call on me to buy my house. They pulled up some market comps to come up with their offer price and mine was not even on the market.

I told them, "there is a reason you are asking to buy MY house and not the others that you are using comps for," and basically told them to pound sand.

G1911 · #10 09-26-2021, 11:11 AM

Those that think recent sales results of the same item are generally irrelevant to price and value should have the courage and ability to make me some offers. Who cares the last one a week ago sold for less than half, show your courage.

frankbmd · #11 09-26-2021, 11:20 AM

I've never put imphasis on anything.

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