Why do many put so much emphasis on PAST sales??

[bbcard1]

You know, ya gotta use something. I collect a lot of different stuff and it's funny to watch people who are trying to buy someone who is hot like Vlad or Soto complaining that people are not selling at month old comps.

[Jewish-collector]

A vintage baseball card is like a boat. You're only happy when you buy it and when you sell it.

[Redleg25]

As I mentioned in the open, I can see using past sale as a VERY loose guide, but too many consider previous sales the gospel. One, those deals are gone. Can't buy shares of Microsoft for $100 a piece anymore. Two, no two vintage cards are the same. Here's an example: first 54 Mick is mine. No underlying issues, back as clean as the front. Second is another PSA 1. Hey, both are PSA 1 so accurate comps!🙂

[G1911]

The problem with these Mantles is that they are not fair comps - a cards condition and the number put on the slab by a company are different things. You’d need a beater comp for the second, beat up poor. Obviously cards in different aesthetic conditions will sell for more or less, but that has nothing to do with using comps as a concept. Like everything in the world, if one does it wrong, it will seem wrong.

[Snapolit1]

Looking at past sales of other cards is obviously important.

Would you feel comfortable bidding on a house completely blind to what other homes in the neighborhood and street recently sold for because "hey, all houses are different when you think about it." Well, sure, but certainly doesn't mean median home sales in the neighborhood and on the street are not critical data points to consider. Not the be all and end all of course.

[drcy]

Obviously, you put much emphasis on past sales. Otherwise, there would be no prevailing price.

Though the OP did say "so much emphasis."

I am of the philosophy that one sale does not make market price.

[Luke]

Your Mantle example is a good one. You should price that well above a typical 1, and any serious buyer would expect that. Anyone who tried to tell you about VCP for that card doesn't need to be taken seriously. I would just politely tell them I'm not interested in selling for the prices they are quoting.

[Republicaninmass]

Many many many of the new cards are softer than a sneaker full of dog crap. They've been pumped 300% over the past 2 years, and there are no more buyers at these levels. Add in the millions of modern at psa, and makes for a perfect storm of GTFo before the bottom is in.


Vintage rarities may only have one buyer. You can wait like Dean's cards for prices to catch up, or make a deal.

There is no other way to come up with a price, other than using past sales. However, a seller can pick or choose they way they read into those sales!