PSA Economy � Ground Truth

Peter_Spaeth · #1 09-27-2021, 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chadeast

+1. I assumed that the business would mostly dry up at that price level, and that PSA would be forced to return to reasonable grading prices. I seem to have been proven wrong. I continue to be stunned month after month. And even if we eventually see $20 per card, that is not low enough to keep graded set collecting alive. Even if they eventually get back to $8 per card specials, they may have already killed off a large chunk of graded set collecting by that time. It remains to be seen if that will happen, but if it does it could eventually come back to hurt PSA (and all TPGs) in the long run, after the current boom ends. They are going to need to keep grading a lot of cards to justify their expenses given the massive growth that they've recently undergone.

Yeah, hard to believe anyone is paying $150 to grade a 66 Topps Chico Ruiz. And I agree, no matter how many people may be crazy now, the supply of cards on which people are willing to spend $150 and up to grade just cannot be limitless.

53toppscollector · #2 09-27-2021, 01:49 PM

I think in an ideal world, they develop a service level specifically for base cards, with a fee of $10, but turnaround times of 12-18 months, something like that.

If you are playing the set registry game, anything more than $10 per card for a common just feels excessive. If you are putting together a fully graded set, you probably also don't need the card back in 3 weeks because you aren't flipping it. By putting in a very long timeline for returning the cards, it also deters flippers, or at least makes it more difficult for them.

conor912 · #3 09-27-2021, 01:57 PM

The days of $10 PSA grades are gone. Caput. Maybe a $20/1 year turnaround�.maybe.

Mike D. · #4 09-27-2021, 02:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by conor912

The days of $10 PSA grades are gone. Caput. Maybe a $20/1 year turnaround�.maybe.

That's basically where they were when they shut down for value specials, so this makes sense. Even before that (late 2019) it was $12 per for value/specials.

Republicaninmass · #5 09-27-2021, 02:08 PM

Or "varies by demand"

Told me likley a year...the very last submissions to be processed

Johnny630 · #6 09-27-2021, 03:56 PM

I would not be surprised if the lowest PSA service level will be $50 per card by the middle/end of next year.

It is my opinion that Mr. Turner has this company going in the right direction for the collector.

Snowman · #7 09-27-2021, 05:23 PM

I don't believe that long-time bulk submitters have some sort of "back door" access to lower tiered bulk grading services. That news would leak pretty quickly and wouldn't be too difficult to track down. It would also be a huge PR blow to PSA's brand if some submitters were still allowed to submit while others weren't. I think the likelihood of this currently happening is extremely low. It just wouldn't be in PSA's best interest.

As far as where all these cards are coming from, I think some people here are grossly underestimating the amount of recent growth this hobby has experienced. Collectors within the vintage community are probably a bit sheltered from seeing just how expansive that growth is unless they've made it a point to research and quantify it in some way. Obviously, vintage has grown a lot as well, but it's a fraction of the growth that the modern side of the hobby has seen over the past few years.

As far as when they'll get back to offering lower tiers and cheaper prices, I wouldn't hold my breath. There's still a strong demand at $150 per card. Sure, $100 per card is coming, and I suppose it could be Oct 1st, but I wouldn't bet on it, although I also definitely wouldn't bet on it being later than Jan 2022. But $50 per card pricing is probably still quite a ways out. They still have a sizeable backlog to get through, and PSA knows the floodgates would open back up even at $50 per card. My guess is we'll see them milk this $150 service for at least a couple more months, then reopen a $100 tier sometime in Q4 or on Jan 1st or something like that. Then they'll milk those $100 submissions for at least a few months while they continue to chip away at the backlog, then they'll reopen a $50 tier or something in that neighborhood around the summer of 2022. I think they'll probably offer lower tiers again after they get caught up on the backlog, but it's going to look very different than it does right now. I would guess that ultra-modern bulk value tiers could become a thing of the past with PSA. If you have an ultra-modern card that you want graded, you'll have to pony up the $50 service level or something like that. My guess would be that the bulk value tiers with the lowest pricing will be offered through the quarterly specials, and will be aimed primarily at set collectors. So Q1 2023 might be something like 1950s baseball, and Q2 might be pre-war, and Q3 might be 1980s basketball & 1970s football, stuff like that. I just don't see them reopening bulk value submissions with no restrictions again unless the hobby completely face plants or they find a way to pentuple their current workflow.

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