AL Wild Card Scenarios

[nineunder71]

Clearly, all this excitement has clouded some of our brains

Originally Posted by rats60

Ok, I am confused. How is a playoff game to advance to the NLDS and have home field through the playoffs worse than a wild card game against the Cardinals to advance to the NLDS and never getting home field?

[SteveS]

rats60, the Dodgers' starting staff is a bit shot. Kershaw is out. Urias pitched last night. Buehler may or may not start today. If he does and the Dodgers win and the Giants lose, that leaves Scherzer for the tiebreaker, and he stunk it up in his last two outings. I just don't like the chances in that road game. If I were managing the Dodgers (and I have no idea why they never promoted me from souvenir stand salesman to manager in 1985), I would make today a bullpen game. Still try to win, of course. But if Scherzer has to start the tiebreaker, that would leave Buehler ready for the Wild-Card. Obviously it's better to win the division as you said, but I'm pessimistic about that happening.

[nineunder71]

Your pessimistic thoughts are right on que!

The division win streak will end, and then Arenado, a SoCal boy, will ‘rake’ you guys right on back to Beverly Hills where you can enjoy a beautiful winter retreat….it really is nice there!

U heard it here first!!

Originally Posted by SteveS

rats60, the Dodgers' starting staff is a bit shot. Kershaw is out. Urias pitched last night. Buehler may or may not start today. If he does and the Dodgers win and the Giants lose, that leaves Scherzer for the tiebreaker, and he stunk it up in his last two outings. I just don't like the chances in that road game. If I were managing the Dodgers (and I have no idea why they never promoted me from souvenir stand salesman to manager in 1985), I would make today a bullpen game. Still try to win, of course. But if Scherzer has to start the tiebreaker, that would leave Buehler ready for the Wild-Card. Obviously it's better to win the division as you said, but I'm pessimistic about that happening.

[SteveS]

How 'bout those Dodgers!!

[Vegas Cards]

Epic game setting up what should be an intense series. Two best teams in baseball this year meeting for the first time in the post season.

[Snowman]

Well, what do you know... The Dodgers opened up as a -144 betting line favorite to beat the Giants in the NLDS despite the Giants having home-field advantage.

The best teams don't always win, but they are always the betting favorite.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Well, what do you know... The Dodgers opened up as a -144 betting line favorite to beat the Giants in the NLDS despite the Giants having home-field advantage.

The best teams don't always win, but they are always the betting favorite.

I am not a fan of either team
But I am a Baseball Fan and Love a Good Game/Series
This has the potential to be a classic.

Should be a Great Series and on paper the Dodgers Should be the favorites based on their pitching and offense.

However the Giants are built more old school style and have veteran players that know how to play good fundamentals, knows how to work the count and work the pitchers pitch count up, and just get on base. Their defense has also been more solid than I would have thought.

So I will be Cheering for a Close, Tight, and Long Series

[tschock]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Well, what do you know... The Dodgers opened up as a -144 betting line favorite to beat the Giants in the NLDS despite the Giants having home-field advantage.

The best teams don't always win, but they are always the betting favorite.

Dodgers were 0-2 this year when they were the underdogs (home and away), so they were favored to win in all but 2 games. Giants were 33-24 (25-14 away, 8-10 home) when listed as underdogs, yet ended up essentially with the same record as the Dodgers. The Giants also as an underdog had the best point-spread and margin of victory of any team in both leagues. It wouldn't be a big surprise (to me) if the Giants lost 2 games at home and still won the series (or at least went 5 games). They seem to be one of the best teams to do the most with the least. I think it will be a 5-gamer to decide.

And I just realized, that since the Dodgers were the underdogs only 2 times this year, that means at most the Giants were the favorites against them only 2 times, yet the Giants went 10-9 against the Dodgers during the season.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by SteveS

rats60, the Dodgers' starting staff is a bit shot. Kershaw is out. Urias pitched last night. Buehler may or may not start today. If he does and the Dodgers win and the Giants lose, that leaves Scherzer for the tiebreaker, and he stunk it up in his last two outings. I just don't like the chances in that road game. If I were managing the Dodgers (and I have no idea why they never promoted me from souvenir stand salesman to manager in 1985), I would make today a bullpen game. Still try to win, of course. But if Scherzer has to start the tiebreaker, that would leave Buehler ready for the Wild-Card. Obviously it's better to win the division as you said, but I'm pessimistic about that happening.

How quickly things change in baseball. A week ago we would have said the Dodger starting rotation was invincible -- imagine, a 20 game winner as arguably only your fourth best pitcher behind two first ballot HOFers and a youngster on his way to superstardom.

[SteveS]

Colton, I agree that the division streak is likely over, but in the postseason the Giants will get a one-way ticket back to the Tenderloin. I'm just happy that after all that money-spending and cockiness, the Padres finished out of the money.

Peter, Urias has been the best pitcher all season. He deserves the Cy Young, but most likely won't get it. If wins don't count anymore, just award the World Series to the team with the lowest ERA or highest WAR and we won't have to worry about any of this playoff math.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by SteveS

Colton, I agree that the division streak is likely over, but in the postseason the Giants will get a one-way ticket back to the Tenderloin. I'm just happy that after all that money-spending and cockiness, the Padres finished out of the money.

Peter, Urias has been the best pitcher all season. He deserves the Cy Young, but most likely won't get it. If wins don't count anymore, just award the World Series to the team with the lowest ERA or highest WAR and we won't have to worry about any of this playoff math.

Isn't Urias allowing half a run per game more than Buehler and Scherzer? IMO that matters more than wins which depend on externalities.

[SteveS]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Isn't Urias allowing half a run per game more than Buehler and Scherzer? IMO that matters more than wins which depend on externalities.

He won the most games, which is what matters most. As I said, they don't award the World Series to the team with the lowest ERA.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by SteveS

He's also winning more games, which is what matters most.

We disagree then on the importance of wins as a statistic for an individual pitcher. Suppose Scherzer loses a 1-0 game and Urias wins a 5-3 game. Would you really say Urias was better? Not I.

[nineunder71]

Yes, Urias was your stud last year in the playoffs, along with May. However, Urias will not be this year’s Cy Young winner, as u stated, and for good reason, there are better options

I’m also happy that the Friars are out in this manner!

However, WINS do matter, as these giants have shown all year, no need to go to WAR & ERA, just win the games if you are the better team, which They have been!

Originally Posted by SteveS

Colton, I agree that the division streak is likely over, but in the postseason the Giants will get a one-way ticket back to the Tenderloin. I'm just happy that after all that money-spending and cockiness, the Padres finished out of the money.

Peter, Urias has been the best pitcher all season. He deserves the Cy Young, but most likely won't get it. If wins don't count anymore, just award the World Series to the team with the lowest ERA or highest WAR and we won't have to worry about any of this playoff math.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by nineunder71

Clearly, all this excitement has clouded some of our brains

No it is because what he says makes no sense. He wants to concede the division to his hated rivals to play the Cards in the WC. He should want to beat the Giants to make them play another game and get the winner in LA. Aren't the Dodgers defending champions with 105 wins going into the last game? He acts like they are lucky to have a winning record.

I guess it doesn't matter. The Padres are tanking to the Giants just like 1971. The Dodgers hate the Giants, but everyone else in the Division hates the Dodgers.

[SteveS]

Originally Posted by rats60

No it is because what he says makes no sense. He wants to concede the division to his hated rivals to play the Cards in the WC. He should want to beat the Giants to make them play another game and get the winner in LA. Aren't the Dodgers defending champions with 105 wins going into the last game? He acts like they are lucky to have a winning record.

I guess it doesn't matter. The Padres are tanking to the Giants just like 1971. The Dodgers hate the Giants, but everyone else in the Division hates the Dodgers.

It's pretty obvious that I'd want the Dodgers to beat the Giants. But you made my point for me in your second paragraph. I don't think anybody who follows baseball thought that the Padres would give it their all today. It was pretty clear that the Giants were going to win the division no matter what the Dodgers did. So why not save Buehler, who has been on a roll recently, for Wednesday? Scherzer is obviously no slouch, but he has pitched horribly lately and is mediocre in the postseason (7-5).

As for Urias, I'd award the CY to his 20-3/2.96 over any of the other contenders by a mile.