Article: Future Hall-Of-Famer Cards: Sure Thing Hitters

[Mike D.]

Originally Posted by steve B

It's an interesting box to go through.

I bet...it really goes to show that it takes a while to really know. If you were to try to pick from all the rookies in a given time period which would be hall of famers, you'd probably not be very close (Todd Van Poppel, Bryan Taylor)

If you go a few more years, the numbers get better but a lot of misses still (Gooden, Eric Davis).

It's only after 10 years you'd probably hit on 50% (Mattingly), and 15+ years when guys are "sure things". It's a marathon, not a sprint!

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Mike D.

I bet...it really goes to show that it takes a while to really know. If you were to try to pick from all the rookies in a given time period which would be hall of famers, you'd probably not be very close (Todd Van Poppel, Bryan Taylor)

If you go a few more years, the numbers get better but a lot of misses still (Gooden, Eric Davis).

It's only after 10 years you'd probably hit on 50% (Mattingly), and 15+ years when guys are "sure things". It's a marathon, not a sprint!

I would think at 10 years you could do better than 50 percent?

[Mike D.]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I would think at 10 years you could do better than 50 percent?

Maybe 50% is too low...but it's certainly not all that close to 100%. I bet we could do some analysis, but it'd be a lot of research.

A few names that jump out as "people thought they were in at 10 years" might include Mattingly, Garvey, Murphy, Joe Carter, Albert Belle, and a whole buncha steroids guys that probably skew the results and should be ignored.

On the other side of the coin, I think of guys already in like Eck, Lee Smith, and of course Harold Baines (maybe we should ignore that one too), and future likely inductees like Billy Wagner, Kenny Lofton, Carlos Beltran.

An example with a couple guys named Adrian- at 10 years into their careers, you'd think Adrian Gonzalez was a likely hall of famer, and Adrian Beltre nowhere near a HOFer.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Of that list I think Garvey and Carter didn't so much drop off as history came to take a dimmer view of their status with the advent of metrics.

[Mike D.]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Of that list I think Garvey and Carter didn't so much drop off as history came to take a dimmer view of their status with the advent of metrics.

Yes, that's a fair point...player performance is one variable, but there are others. The rise of analytics changed the way we look at the game. The steroid era blew up the old standards - 500 HR, 3,000 hits, etc. The game has changed a lot, too...and changes constantly.

I'm only 45, but the baseball I watched as a kid was different than the baseball of the mid-90's-mid-2000's, which was different than the baseball of the mid 2000's to mid-2010's, which is different than the baseball of today.

Lots of variables, for sure...and it all makes prediction difficult. Plus, hamstrings, elbow ligaments, and eyeballs all can go bad at rates that are tough to figure out.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Mike D.

Yes, that's a fair point...player performance is one variable, but there are others. The rise of analytics changed the way we look at the game. The steroid era blew up the old standards - 500 HR, 3,000 hits, etc. The game has changed a lot, too...and changes constantly.

I'm only 45, but the baseball I watched as a kid was different than the baseball of the mid-90's-mid-2000's, which was different than the baseball of the mid 2000's to mid-2010's, which is different than the baseball of today.

Lots of variables, for sure...and it all makes prediction difficult. Plus, hamstrings, elbow ligaments, and eyeballs all can go bad at rates that are tough to figure out.

Speaking of which, Mike Trout and his strained calf muscle. I mean, is he EVER coming back?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Mike D.

Yes, that's a fair point...player performance is one variable, but there are others. The rise of analytics changed the way we look at the game. The steroid era blew up the old standards - 500 HR, 3,000 hits, etc. The game has changed a lot, too...and changes constantly.

I'm only 45, but the baseball I watched as a kid was different than the baseball of the mid-90's-mid-2000's, which was different than the baseball of the mid 2000's to mid-2010's, which is different than the baseball of today.

Lots of variables, for sure...and it all makes prediction difficult. Plus, hamstrings, elbow ligaments, and eyeballs all can go bad at rates that are tough to figure out.

I personally think we've gone too far in the direction of 4 hour games with 8 pitching changes on each side, and a lifetime between pitches. There was a lot to be said for the pitcher getting the ball back, looking in for the sign, and serving up the next pitch.

[Mike D.]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I personally think we've gone too far in the direction of 4 hour games with 8 pitching changes on each side, and a lifetime between pitches. There was a lot to be said for the pitcher getting the ball back, looking in for the sign, and serving up the next pitch.

I don't disagree...in particular, I find slow working pitchers painful.

The reduced workload of starting pitchers along with the recent trend of de-emphasizing closers (no 40 save seasons in 2021) and I wonder how we'll define a hall of fame pitcher in 20 years.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by Mike D.

I bet...it really goes to show that it takes a while to really know. If you were to try to pick from all the rookies in a given time period which would be hall of famers, you'd probably not be very close (Todd Van Poppel, Bryan Taylor)

If you go a few more years, the numbers get better but a lot of misses still (Gooden, Eric Davis).

It's only after 10 years you'd probably hit on 50% (Mattingly), and 15+ years when guys are "sure things". It's a marathon, not a sprint!

My criteria skewed it more towards established players, and not many rookies.
I was figuring the "rookie" thing would go away once people realized that things were way past the stage where more of them got tossed when a kids collection got dumped by Mom.
So hardly any rookies unless I just happened to end up with them.

If I remember right, I was WAY under 50%.