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#1
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I bet...it really goes to show that it takes a while to really know. If you were to try to pick from all the rookies in a given time period which would be hall of famers, you'd probably not be very close (Todd Van Poppel, Bryan Taylor)
If you go a few more years, the numbers get better but a lot of misses still (Gooden, Eric Davis). It's only after 10 years you'd probably hit on 50% (Mattingly), and 15+ years when guys are "sure things". It's a marathon, not a sprint! |
#2
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__________________
My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. |
#3
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A few names that jump out as "people thought they were in at 10 years" might include Mattingly, Garvey, Murphy, Joe Carter, Albert Belle, and a whole buncha steroids guys that probably skew the results and should be ignored. On the other side of the coin, I think of guys already in like Eck, Lee Smith, and of course Harold Baines (maybe we should ignore that one too), and future likely inductees like Billy Wagner, Kenny Lofton, Carlos Beltran. An example with a couple guys named Adrian- at 10 years into their careers, you'd think Adrian Gonzalez was a likely hall of famer, and Adrian Beltre nowhere near a HOFer. |
#4
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Of that list I think Garvey and Carter didn't so much drop off as history came to take a dimmer view of their status with the advent of metrics.
__________________
My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. |
#5
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I'm only 45, but the baseball I watched as a kid was different than the baseball of the mid-90's-mid-2000's, which was different than the baseball of the mid 2000's to mid-2010's, which is different than the baseball of today. Lots of variables, for sure...and it all makes prediction difficult. Plus, hamstrings, elbow ligaments, and eyeballs all can go bad at rates that are tough to figure out. |
#6
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__________________
My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. |
#7
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Quote:
__________________
My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. Last edited by Peter_Spaeth; 11-01-2021 at 08:40 PM. |
#8
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The reduced workload of starting pitchers along with the recent trend of de-emphasizing closers (no 40 save seasons in 2021) and I wonder how we'll define a hall of fame pitcher in 20 years. |
#9
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I was figuring the "rookie" thing would go away once people realized that things were way past the stage where more of them got tossed when a kids collection got dumped by Mom. So hardly any rookies unless I just happened to end up with them. If I remember right, I was WAY under 50%. |
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