Best lefty off all time? My vote is Koufax!

[Carter08]

Originally Posted by Snowman

A "math-based logically consistent argument" has been provided for exactly zero pitchers thus far in this thread. You guys may as well be picking your favorite Power Ranger. No shame in that though. Some people like pink, others prefer green.

I really don’t quite get this. Pull up stats, many sites provide them. Spahn, for example, didn’t just pitch for a long time - he also led the league in a ton of categories that seem important. I don’t need to be a statistician to think that combined with his all time leading careen wins, leading the league all those times means the guy was better than “above average” or whatever phrase you used. I’m just a cave man lawyer but even I can figure some of this out. Please provide your algorithm that puts Spahn at just “above average” or admit you’re trolling just a little.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Carter08

I really don’t quite get this. Pull up stats, many sites provide them. Spahn, for example, didn’t just pitch for a long time - he also led the league in a ton of categories that seem important. I don’t need to be a statistician to think that combined with his all time leading careen wins, leading the league all those times means the guy was better than “above average” or whatever phrase you used. I’m just a cave man lawyer but even I can figure some of this out. Please provide your algorithm that puts Spahn at just “above average” or admit you’re trolling just a little.

I don't have the time to write the algorithm necessary to calculate it right now. But I've done A LOT (well in excess of 1,000 hours worth of coding) on similar baseball problems to estimate the value of pitchers and hitters for the purposes of "gambling" on baseball over the past 10 years. We'd have to agree on a definition of "better" first. Then I'd need to control for the parks they pitched in, the changes in mound heights, the expansion and contraction of the strike zones they were subject to, the defensive capabilities of their teammates, the speed of the hitters they faced, and the hitting talent they faced. I don't have the time for that, so I say I don't know who was better between Koufax, Randy, and Kershaw.

But I'll leave you with this. I'd take Hyun Jin Ryu over Warren Spahn any day of the week and twice on Sundays.

[earlywynnfan]

Originally Posted by Snowman

I don't have the time to write the algorithm necessary to calculate it right now. But I've done A LOT (well in excess of 1,000 hours worth of coding) on similar baseball problems to estimate the value of pitchers and hitters for the purposes of "gambling" on baseball over the past 10 years. We'd have to agree on a definition of "better" first. Then I'd need to control for the parks they pitched in, the changes in mound heights, the expansion and contraction of the strike zones they were subject to, the defensive capabilities of their teammates, the speed of the hitters they faced, and the hitting talent they faced. I don't have the time for that, so I say I don't know who was better between Koufax, Randy, and Kershaw.

But I'll leave you with this. I'd take Hyun Jin Ryu over Warren Spahn any day of the week and twice on Sundays.

Do you have time to respond to my discussion on the WS statistics for Koufax and Grove? You keep mentioning Spahn, but the majority on this thread find Grove superior.

[cammb]

I think Koufax has received more accolades from his contemporaries and sportswriters of this time than any pitcher I have read about. His last four years are incredible. The guy was inducted to the Hall at the age of 37!!! If that doesn't sway you, nothing will.

[earlywynnfan]

Originally Posted by cammb

I think Koufax has received more accolades from his contemporaries and sportswriters of this time than any pitcher I have read about. His last four years are incredible. The guy was inducted to the Hall at the age of 37!!! If that doesn't sway you, nothing will.

I guess I'd appreciate my all-time pitcher to still be pitching at a high level at age 37 instead of having 5 summers of sitting on a shelf, but maybe I'm off base??

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by earlywynnfan

I guess I'd appreciate my all-time pitcher to still be pitching at a high level at age 37 instead of having 5 summers of sitting on a shelf, but maybe I'm off base??

LOL he actually retired at 30. And he wasn't very good until he was 25. He had a phenomenal 6 year run (probably better characterized as 5, the first year was only very good) and that was it.

At his zenith, was he as good as anyone? I guess that depends how much weight you put on the disparity between his home and road stats.

But I think there are a lot of externalities that have enhanced his reputation.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

I was coming on to point out that people act like Koufax took forever to develop when he was actually incredibly young when he started and stuck on a major league roster because of his bonus baby status, same as his 1954 classmate Harmon Killebrew. Both likely would've benefited by a couple of years in the minors instead of languishing on a major league bench, but both were still a "normal" age when they put it all together.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by cammb

I think Koufax has received more accolades from his contemporaries and sportswriters of this time than any pitcher I have read about. His last four years are incredible. The guy was inducted to the Hall at the age of 37!!! If that doesn't sway you, nothing will.

Koufax is in the majors but not producing much at age 19, which I really wouldn't hold him against as he was developing like most players this age. The bonus baby rule kept him on the roster, as someone else noted.

Koufax became an above average player at 25.

Koufax broke out into a star at age 26 the next year.

Koufax was truly great, from ages 26-30.

He was done at age 30.


Meanwhile:

Grove entered the majors at 25, held hostage in Baltimore. He was not very good that season.

He became a star at age 26, when he led the league in ERA for the first time. The same exact time Koufax did.

Grove was great from ages 26-30.

At this point there careers are very similar, Sandy's years probably slightly greater. Koufax has a 167 ERA+ from 26-30, Grove has a 157. Both are absolutely dominating their leagues. This is the point of comparison in their careers most favorable to Koufax, and he is barely winning.

After age 30, Grove won 6 more ERA crowns, career years in which Koufax was producing absolutely nothing. He went 185-84 with a 150 ERA+ after age 30. He was a truly great pitcher at age 39, above average at 40, done at 41.

I guess if Grove had been sitting at home retired instating of leading the league in ERA 6 times and dominating the AL, he could be the GOAT.

By what rational standard can this, that Sandy's early retirement and his career ending at 30, possibly be a point in favor for Koufax? I don't see a winning argument for Koufax, but there are much, much better arguments than this kind of absurd trolling. Can we not ask ourselves "does this make any sense whatsoever?" before making a claim?


If press headlines and sportswriters are our determining factor, lets see this applied to every player and position. Jeter is the GOAT shortstop, Dimaggio the greatest CF, Jackie the best 2B of all time by a country mile. The most famous is the best.

If it's based on accolades and awards, it's still not Koufax, it's Randy Johnson, 5 time Cy Young winner, 10 time all star, 97.3% Hall of Fame vote receiver (Koufax only got 86.9%), the most decorated lefty in baseball history. This is simply not a point for Koufax if you want to go by the hardware.

If it is based on their peers, players from the 30's thought Grove was the toughest lefty they faced, players in the 60's Koufax, and players in the 00's Johnson. Nobody wins this.

These arguments are silly and even if they weren't, still don't show Koufax as #1.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Spahn won …. wait for it.... 250+ games after age 30 lol. Of course, everyone here knows wins don't matter. And he didn't refuse to pitch on Yom Kippur or (as far as I know) make the cover of LIFE.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Spahn won …. wait for it.... 250+ games after age 30 lol. Of course, everyone here knows wins don't matter. And he didn't refuse to pitch on Yom Kippur or (as far as I know) make the cover of LIFE.

This brings to mind another question. Okay, lets say wins don't matter, they are heavily overrated but let's just completely dismiss them entirely. How many pitchers have 363 or more total decisions but are only "above average, at best"? Maybe a handful at most.

[cammb]

Originally Posted by G1911

Koufax is in the majors but not producing much at age 19, which I really wouldn't hold him against as he was developing like most players this age. The bonus baby rule kept him on the roster, as someone else noted.

Koufax became an above average player at 25.

Koufax broke out into a star at age 26 the next year.

Koufax was truly great, from ages 26-30.

He was done at age 30.


Meanwhile:

Grove entered the majors at 25, held hostage in Baltimore. He was not very good that season.

He became a star at age 26, when he led the league in ERA for the first time. The same exact time Koufax did.

Grove was great from ages 26-30.

At this point there careers are very similar, Sandy's years probably slightly greater. Koufax has a 167 ERA+ from 26-30, Grove has a 157. Both are absolutely dominating their leagues. This is the point of comparison in their careers most favorable to Koufax, and he is barely winning.

After age 30, Grove won 6 more ERA crowns, career years in which Koufax was producing absolutely nothing. He went 185-84 with a 150 ERA+ after age 30. He was a truly great pitcher at age 39, above average at 40, done at 41.

I guess if Grove had been sitting at home retired instating of leading the league in ERA 6 times and dominating the AL, he could be the GOAT.

By what rational standard can this, that Sandy's early retirement and his career ending at 30, possibly be a point in favor for Koufax? I don't see a winning argument for Koufax, but there are much, much better arguments than this kind of absurd trolling. Can we not ask ourselves "does this make any sense whatsoever?" before making a claim?


If press headlines and sportswriters are our determining factor, lets see this applied to every player and position. Jeter is the GOAT shortstop, Dimaggio the greatest CF, Jackie the best 2B of all time by a country mile. The most famous is the best.

If it's based on accolades and awards, it's still not Koufax, it's Randy Johnson, 5 time Cy Young winner, 10 time all star, 97.3% Hall of Fame vote receiver (Koufax only got 86.9%), the most decorated lefty in baseball history. This is simply not a point for Koufax if you want to go by the hardware.

If it is based on their peers, players from the 30's thought Grove was the toughest lefty they faced, players in the 60's Koufax, and players in the 00's Johnson. Nobody wins this.

These arguments are silly and even if they weren't, still don't show Koufax as #1.

Well since you declared these arguments to be silly, I guess we will not hear from you again.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by cammb

Well since you declared these arguments to be silly, I guess we will not hear from you again.

…I don’t think you read that right…

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by earlywynnfan

Do you have time to respond to my discussion on the WS statistics for Koufax and Grove? You keep mentioning Spahn, but the majority on this thread find Grove superior.

I think Grove was probably better than Spahn. But I can't say that with confidence without spending a significant amount of time making adjustments to control for the level of skill of the league in general during their respective eras.

But even leaving league adjustments aside, pretending that the league was every bit as strong when Grove was pitching (which it most certainly was not), Koufax still outperformed Grove's numbers across the board in the postseason, and it's not close. The only statistic that Grove was better at was BB/9, but Grove also had a larger strike zone to work with than Koufax did (top of the shoulders to bottom of the knees vs armit to top of the knees). Regardless, Koufax put significantly fewer batters on base, was scored on half as much, and struck out batters almost twice as often. What's there to compare? Koufax was significantly better than Grove in the postseason (and Grove was great).

Serious question. I don't know the answer, but was there any pitcher ever, right or left-handed, who was better in the postseason than Koufax with at least 50+ IP?

Either way, postseason performance isn't all that interesting to me. The sample sizes are just too small for it to be as meaningful as most people want it to be.

[Mark17]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Serious question. I don't know the answer, but was there any pitcher ever, right or left-handed, who was better in the postseason than Koufax with at least 50+ IP?

Koufax was 4-3 with an ERA of 0.95. There was another left hander, named Ruth, who was 3-0 with an ERA of 0.87. And a guy named Gibson who was 7-2 with an ERA of 1.89.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

I was coming on to point out that people act like Koufax took forever to develop when he was actually incredibly young when he started and stuck on a major league roster because of his bonus baby status, same as his 1954 classmate Harmon Killebrew. Both likely would've benefited by a couple of years in the minors instead of languishing on a major league bench, but both were still a "normal" age when they put it all together.

Hey now, no giving out hints. G1911 has to solve this riddle on his own. He's a data analyst!

Originally Posted by Seven

Really? You're going to die on that hill? You're taking Ryu over a 13 time 20 game winner, whose JAWS rank him as the 13th greatest pitcher of all time? The Same guy who led the league in complete games seven seasons in a row? Is this a joke?

Yes, I'm taking Ryu over Spahn. No, I'm not joking. The number of games someone won is absolutely meaningless to me. You might as well be talking about his hair color.

Originally Posted by Mark17

Koufax was 4-3 with an ERA of 0.95. There was another left hander, named Ruth, who was 3-0 with an ERA of 0.87. And a guy named Gibson who was 7-2 with an ERA of 1.89.

OK, so you're saying Koufax was the best of the 3 then. Got it. As Ruth does not qualify with his 31 IP (and a mere 8 Ks) during the dead-ball era, and Bob Gibson gave up about twice as many runs and was slightly easier to hit off of.

Not sure what their W-L record has anything to do with anything though. Perhaps you could fill me in on that?

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Hey now, no giving out hints. G1911 has to solve this riddle on his own. He's a data analyst!

I’m glad you now recognize how ridiculous fallacious egotist appeals to self professed total authority are!

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Mark17

Koufax was 4-3 with an ERA of 0.95...

In each of Koufax's 3 postseason losses, he gave up 1 earned run. That bears repeating. He only gave up ONE earned run in each of his postseason losses. ONE.

[Carter08]

Originally Posted by Snowman

In each of Koufax's 3 postseason losses, he gave up 1 earned run. That bears repeating. He only gave up ONE earned run in each of his postseason losses. ONE.

Career WAR of 48. For the all time great, that’s too low for me.

[carlsonjok]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Serious question. I don't know the answer, but was there any pitcher ever, right or left-handed, who was better in the postseason than Koufax with at least 50+ IP?

Mariano Rivera. 8-1 record with 42 saves in 141 innings pitched. 0.70 ERA with a 0.759 WHIP.

[earlywynnfan]

Originally Posted by Snowman

I think Grove was probably better than Spahn. But I can't say that with confidence without spending a significant amount of time making adjustments to control for the level of skill of the league in general during their respective eras.

But even leaving league adjustments aside, pretending that the league was every bit as strong when Grove was pitching (which it most certainly was not), Koufax still outperformed Grove's numbers across the board in the postseason, and it's not close. The only statistic that Grove was better at was BB/9, but Grove also had a larger strike zone to work with than Koufax did (top of the shoulders to bottom of the knees vs armit to top of the knees). Regardless, Koufax put significantly fewer batters on base, was scored on half as much, and struck out batters almost twice as often. What's there to compare? Koufax was significantly better than Grove in the postseason (and Grove was great).

Serious question. I don't know the answer, but was there any pitcher ever, right or left-handed, who was better in the postseason than Koufax with at least 50+ IP?

Either way, postseason performance isn't all that interesting to me. The sample sizes are just too small for it to be as meaningful as most people want it to be.

Wait, aren't you the one who said that this should boil down to who you'd want to start game 7 of the WS? Is this conversation about peak, career, or just one start for you?
Why do you have to "pretend" Grove's era was as strong as Koufax's, when Koufax pitched against the 1964 Twins?
Why do you bring up Grove's strike zone but not Grove's lower mound?

[cammb]

Statistics aside. Being selected to the hall as the youngest player ever mean anything to the naysayers? That is a great tribute when the writers basically went by five seasons of greatness.

[Carter08]

Originally Posted by cammb

Statistics aside. Being selected to the hall as the youngest player ever mean anything to the naysayers? That is a great tribute when the writers basically went by five seasons of greatness.

I don’t think even the “naysayers” have Koufax out of the top 3 or so. It’s the 5 seasons of greatness and not more that have him out of the top 2.

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by cammb

Statistics aside. Being selected to the hall as the youngest player ever mean anything to the naysayers? That is a great tribute when the writers basically went by five seasons of greatness.

Duh --- If you pitch extremely effectively until you are 40 or more (Spahn, Johnson & Grove), you will not be elected to the Hall of Fame at the age of 37. Sorry Tony, but your argument has a big hole in it.

Jeez, if there could only be one left-handed pitcher in Cooperstown, it would be a war zone. Jousting Net54 proponents of each pitcher could settle this definitively in less time than it takes to read this thread, but I bet none of you would volunteer to participate in a joust.

C'mon men.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by cammb

Statistics aside. Being selected to the hall as the youngest player ever mean anything to the naysayers? That is a great tribute when the writers basically went by five seasons of greatness.

Again, that makes absolutely no sense. Retiring early is not a benefit. Most great pitchers are still producing at 37, not giving their Cooperstown speech. You don’t think his team would rather have had Koufax pitching from 31-37 than sitting at home?

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Grove also had a larger strike zone to work with than Koufax did (top of the shoulders to bottom of the knees vs armit to top of the knees)

This is not correct. MLB enlarged the strike zone for, what a coincidence, Sandy's best four seasons:

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/rules/strike-zone

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Tabe

This is not correct. MLB enlarged the strike zone for, what a coincidence, Sandy's best four seasons:

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/rules/strike-zone

I have a feeling facts aren’t going to get in the way of a false narrative.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Tabe

This is not correct. MLB enlarged the strike zone for, what a coincidence, Sandy's best four seasons:

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/rules/strike-zone

Well that's a bit misleading isn't it? 8 of Koufax's 12 seasons he was subject to a smaller strike zone. And 4 of his 5 best K/9 seasons also were during that time with the smaller strike zone, NOT the larger strike zone as you state. What made Koufax so great in his later years wasn't his ability to strike people out, but rather his newfound ability to control the ball better and stop walking batters. His BB rate fell through the floor, but his strikeout rates were actually slightly better before he became the left arm of god. All of Lefty Grove's seasons had the same strike zone as Koufax's final 4 seasons.

Originally Posted by G1911

I have a feeling facts aren’t going to get in the way of a false narrative.

I see you're still pitching a tent in the Walmart parking lot. Do you need some water? Maybe a sandwich or two?

[earlywynnfan]

Originally Posted by Snowman

I think Grove was probably better than Spahn. But I can't say that with confidence without spending a significant amount of time making adjustments to control for the level of skill of the league in general during their respective eras.

But even leaving league adjustments aside, pretending that the league was every bit as strong when Grove was pitching (which it most certainly was not), Koufax still outperformed Grove's numbers across the board in the postseason, and it's not close. The only statistic that Grove was better at was BB/9, but Grove also had a larger strike zone to work with than Koufax did (top of the shoulders to bottom of the knees vs armit to top of the knees). Regardless, Koufax put significantly fewer batters on base, was scored on half as much, and struck out batters almost twice as often. What's there to compare? Koufax was significantly better than Grove in the postseason (and Grove was great).

Serious question. I don't know the answer, but was there any pitcher ever, right or left-handed, who was better in the postseason than Koufax with at least 50+ IP?

Either way, postseason performance isn't all that interesting to me. The sample sizes are just too small for it to be as meaningful as most people want it to be.

If I'm reading a more recent post by member "Snowman" correctly, during 3 of Koufax' 4 WS years, he had the exact same strike zone as Grove.

But, if you use the "statistics in a vacuum" approach, which I was trying not to do in my original post, you are correct: Koufax has better stats.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by earlywynnfan

If I'm reading a more recent post by member "Snowman" correctly, during 3 of Koufax' 4 WS years, he had the exact same strike zone as Grove.

But, if you use the "statistics in a vacuum" approach, which I was trying not to do in my original post, you are correct: Koufax has better stats.

I would take either one of them as my greatest and I would love to be have been able to see either pitch in person

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by earlywynnfan

If I'm reading a more recent post by member "Snowman" correctly, during 3 of Koufax' 4 WS years, he had the exact same strike zone as Grove.

But, if you use the "statistics in a vacuum" approach, which I was trying not to do in my original post, you are correct: Koufax has better stats.

The problem with Spahn and Grove is that once you control for the factors outside of the vacuum, both players' numbers get significantly worse. But apparently, I'd have to prove that in order for anyone to believe it in this thread. However, even if I did, you guys would still argue with the proof, so what's the point? I already know that Grove and Spahn's numbers are deceiving. If you were a more reasonable and receptive audience, I might be motivated to prove it. But alas, here we are.

Just keep pointing out W/L records. You guys got this!

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Snowman

The problem with Spahn and Grove is that once you control for the factors outside of the vacuum, both players' numbers get significantly worse. But apparently, I'd have to prove that in order for anyone to believe it in this thread. However, even if I did, you guys would still argue with the proof, so what's the point? I already know that Grove and Spahn's numbers are deceiving. If you were a more reasonable and receptive audience, I might be motivated to prove it. But alas, here we are.

Just keep pointing out W/L records. You guys got this!

Yes, we realize you can’t and won’t put up a shred of evidence to support your assertions. Even the homeless guy realizes this.

[Carter08]

Originally Posted by Snowman

The problem with Spahn and Grove is that once you control for the factors outside of the vacuum, both players' numbers get significantly worse. But apparently, I'd have to prove that in order for anyone to believe it in this thread. However, even if I did, you guys would still argue with the proof, so what's the point? I already know that Grove and Spahn's numbers are deceiving. If you were a more reasonable and receptive audience, I might be motivated to prove it. But alas, here we are.

Just keep pointing out W/L records. You guys got this!

Come on man, you came up with something on another thread I thought was genuinely amazing and funny and gave you props. This is just common trolling. I could prove it but you would argue with me so I won’t? You know you’re trolling at that point.

[Mark17]

Originally Posted by Snowman

The problem with Spahn and Grove is that once you control for the factors outside of the vacuum, both players' numbers get significantly worse. But apparently, I'd have to prove that in order for anyone to believe it in this thread. However, even if I did, you guys would still argue with the proof, so what's the point? I already know that Grove and Spahn's numbers are deceiving. If you were a more reasonable and receptive audience, I might be motivated to prove it. But alas, here we are.

Just keep pointing out W/L records. You guys got this!

You claim to be superior to the rest of us because you say you are a statistician. Yet you continue to avoid providing any meaningful statistical analysis to support your view.

But we are too stupid to understand the complex statistical analysis you continue to fail to provide. You, sir, are a troll and an arrogant one at that. Arrogant to the point of being amusing... and far from the smartest person in this room.

All you want to do is dismiss things most managers, and general managers, and team owners value most: Wins and dependability over the long haul.

Managers ask their starting pitchers to do one thing - keep the game close, to give their team a good chance to win. I doubt many managers send their starter to the mound by saying, "See if you can get 10 strikeouts today..."

[Seven]

Originally Posted by Snowman

But I'll leave you with this. I'd take Hyun Jin Ryu over Warren Spahn any day of the week and twice on Sundays.

Really? You're going to die on that hill? You're taking Ryu over a 13 time 20 game winner, whose JAWS rank him as the 13th greatest pitcher of all time? The Same guy who led the league in complete games seven seasons in a row? Is this a joke?