Best lefty off all time? My vote is Koufax!

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Tabe

So a 20% jump in FIP is "ever so slightly"?

His home runs were up 40%. OPS was up 20%. Line drive% was up 33%. All that stuff says guys were hitting the ball hard off of him A LOT more than the previous year - and the rest of 1998 and the next four years.

Please specify the EXACT number of starts and/or innings to qualify as NOT a sample size. Just for grins.

p.s. Name-calling reflects poorly on you. Do better.

Irrelevant man. Once the ball leaves the bat, it has nothing to do with the pitcher, it's just dumb luck and coincidence, or a function of other factors beyond the pitcher's control such as fielding. BABIP is binary -- either it's a hit or it's not -- and the rest is meaningless. Besides, every number you cite suffers from small sample size and confidence interval issues -- only numbers that support the thesis that his first half was just random are reliable.

All pitchers are essentially fungible beyond their ability to strike batters out. Maddux is the same as any other 6K/9 pitcher you can name. Johnson's K's stayed up, so all the rest is noise.

[G1911]

If it was all dumb luck, then BABIP would, over the course of long careers, all come out about the same when you factor in the defense behind the pitcher. There would not be pitchers who have incredibly successful and long careers, not giving up many runs, while being contact instead of strikeout pitchers. It doesn’t.

If it’s all dumb luck, how are contact pitchers often just as successful as strikeout pitchers? Maddox and Randy Johnson put together similar total careers. Johnson’s BABIP is league average, Maddux, like most hall of fame contact pitchers, is well below it. They achieved similar ERA’s and total careers via very different methods, in huge sample sizes.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by G1911

If it was all dumb luck, then BABIP would, over the course of long careers, all come out about the same when you factor in the defense behind the pitcher. There would not be pitchers who have incredibly successful and long careers, not giving up many runs, while being contact instead of strikeout pitchers. It doesn’t.

If it’s all dumb luck, how are contact pitchers often just as successful as strikeout pitchers? Maddox and Randy Johnson put together similar total careers. Johnson’s BABIP is league average, Maddux, like most hall of fame contact pitchers, is well below it. They achieved similar ERA’s and total careers via very different methods, in huge sample sizes.

Maddux's success was the result of dumb luck!! 21 years of it, well, maybe 16 of which really defined him.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Maddux's success was the result of dumb luck!! 21 years of it, well, maybe 16 of which really defined him.

Well, he pitched for 21 years which seems like a lot, but it was only 5,008 innings. The sample is just too small. Maddux was lucky. Also a bum because only K pitchers who played after Spahn, except for Koufax who is exempted because I don’t know, are any good.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by G1911

Well, he pitched for 21 years which seems like a lot, but it was only 5,008 innings. The sample is just too small. Maddux was lucky. Also a bum because only K pitchers who played after Spahn, except for Koufax who is exempted because I don’t know, are any good.

Snowman is always right. Just ask him.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Snowman is always right. Just ask him.

He even has a statistical algorithm to prove it. But don't ask him to show you, because he hasn't actually created it yet. And he doesn't really have the time to do it right now, unless you want to pay him. But even if you do, and then he does, it probably doesn't matter because he'll tell you you're too ignorant to understand it anyway.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by BobC

He even has a statistical algorithm to prove it. But don't ask him to show you, because he hasn't actually created it yet. And he doesn't really have the time to do it right now, unless you want to pay him. But even if you do, and then he does, it probably doesn't matter because he'll tell you you're too ignorant to understand it anyway.

Pretty much sums up our snowman on every thread, Bob. Since I have been here this is the fastest I have seen someone overstay their welcome however he is very amusing because of how serious he takes himself.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by BobC

He even has a statistical algorithm to prove it. But don't ask him to show you, because he hasn't actually created it yet. And he doesn't really have the time to do it right now, unless you want to pay him. But even if you do, and then he does, it probably doesn't matter because he'll tell you you're too ignorant to understand it anyway.

And I'll give you $1k right now if you can explain in detail why a pitcher's win totals and ERA from any given season should not be used to evaluate pitching performance. And you can't just say "sample size". Good luck.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by G1911

Well, he pitched for 21 years which seems like a lot, but it was only 5,008 innings. The sample is just too small. Maddux was lucky. Also a bum because only K pitchers who played after Spahn, except for Koufax who is exempted because I don’t know, are any good.

Maddux also pitched in the NL, in a pitcher's park, and with one of the greatest defensive center fielders of all time catching balls for him. His BABIP would be expected to be lower than MLB average. If you look at Smoltz and Glavine's numbers during the same time, they also both beat league average MLB BABIP.

Perhaps you should read up on BABIP? I somewhat excuse the level of ignorance on these topics by the non data savvy people in this thread because it's not exactly their job to understand numbers. But if you are serious about being a data analyst, your perpetual ignorance displayed throughout the entirety of this thread with respect to just basic statistics and simple statistical concepts is remarkably embarassing. You should be ashamed of yourself. Go read a book. Or three.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Maddux also pitched in the NL, in a pitcher's park, and with one of the greatest defensive center fielders of all time catching balls for him. His BABIP would be expected to be lower than MLB average. If you look at Smoltz and Glavine's numbers during the same time, they also both beat league average MLB BABIP.

Perhaps you should read up on BABIP? I somewhat excuse the level of ignorance on these topics by the non data savvy people in this thread because it's not exactly their job to understand numbers. But if you are serious about being a data analyst, your perpetual ignorance displayed throughout the entirety of this thread with respect to just basic statistics and simple statistical concepts is remarkably embarassing. You should be ashamed of yourself. Go read a book. Or three.

The only person being embarrassed in this thread is you. You’ve progressed into actually having some points beyond claiming to be infallible and have a statistical model you can’t show that proves your claims, but any good point in it is lost by the constant insults of everyone else here and the childish immaturity of your ‘over the top brag - insult’ pattern that never ceases. I’m well aware of what BABIP is and already said the defense behind the pitcher needs to be adjusted for. Regardless of what you claim, great contact pitchers find success at not giving up many runs, often equal to or even better than great K pitchers. Dismissing all non K centric pitchers, which seems to be your implied basis for ignoring Spahn but including his exact contemporary Koufax, is not supported by the data. It does not appear to be random luck, and they tend to have lower BABIP’s over large sample sizes.

But I’m illiterate and homeless, among many other things.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by G1911

The only person being embarrassed in this thread is you. You’ve progressed into actually having some points beyond claiming to be infallible and have a statistical model you can’t show that proves your claims, but any good point in it is lost by the constant insults of everyone else here and the childish immaturity of your ‘over the top brag - insult’ pattern that never ceases. I’m well aware of what BABIP is and already said the defense behind the pitcher needs to be adjusted for. Regardless of what you claim, great contact pitchers find success at not giving up many runs, often equal to or even better than great K pitchers. Dismissing all non K centric pitchers, which seems to be your implied basis for ignoring Spahn but including his exact contemporary Koufax, is not supported by the data. It does not appear to be random luck, and they tend to have lower BABIP’s over large sample sizes.

But I’m illiterate and homeless, among many other things.

In one breath, you claim to understand BABIP and its implications, and in the very next breath you use the completely nonsensical term of "great contact pitchers" as if such a thing exists. This is what I'm trying to tell you. There is no such thing as a "great contact pitcher". They are the Loch Ness Monster of baseball. A myth. If you don't understand this, then you don't understand BABIP and why it is important.

This isn't exactly news either. Every franchise in the league today knows this. You might find some old school uneducated managers here and there who still reject it, but the front offices and owners across the league all accept this fundamental truth. It's been well known for the better part of 20 years now.

You should read this. It's a link to the original research article by the guy who discovered this fundamental truth about pitchers not being able to control contact after the pitch.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/n...-hurlers-have/

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by G1911

Well, he pitched for 21 years which seems like a lot, but it was only 5,008 innings. The sample is just too small. Maddux was lucky. Also a bum because only K pitchers who played after Spahn, except for Koufax who is exempted because I don’t know, are any good.

I'll give you $1k right now if you can repeat my arguments in a way I'll sign off on. Good luck.

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Irrelevant man. Once the ball leaves the bat, it has nothing to do with the pitcher, it's just dumb luck and coincidence, or a function of other factors beyond the pitcher's control such as fielding. BABIP is binary -- either it's a hit or it's not -- and the rest is meaningless. Besides, every number you cite suffers from small sample size and confidence interval issues -- only numbers that support the thesis that his first half was just random are reliable.

All pitchers are essentially fungible beyond their ability to strike batters out. Maddux is the same as any other 6K/9 pitcher you can name. Johnson's K's stayed up, so all the rest is noise.

I appreciate you clearing it up for me. It seems so simple when you explain it that way.