Cryptocurrency, DAOs and NFTs

[swarmee]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Fama's basic thesis is don't try to time the market, because you won't win. Not you personally. Just look at all the people who panicked when the pandemic drove down the market in early 2020 and got out, and then didn't get back in as the market soared back up.

Yep, I'm aware. I'd rather lose the small IMO upside risk during some times than suffer the downside.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by swarmee

Yep, I'm aware. I'd rather lose the small IMO upside risk during some times than suffer the downside.

But the research shows you can't really predict what is going to happen when, so assuming you believe in the market over the long term (and if you don't of course you shouldn't be in it period), you're better off just deciding in light of your goals and timeframe what your allocation is between equities, debt (and cash), and more or less riding it out. The guy who founded Vanguard wrote a short but very IMO informative book along these lines, and there's another very similar one written by a very successful guy who became fatally ill and decided to put all his wisdom into a short book. As for being able to predict trends be they down or up, or where the market is heading at any given moment, consider the famous quote by Paul Samuelson: economists have successfully predicted 6 out of the last 4 recessions.

[egri]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

The guy who founded Vanguard wrote a short but very IMO informative book along these lines,

Sounds like The Little Book of Common Sense Investing, which is available as a PDF online for those interested.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Yes that's the one. This is the other one.

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/14...?ie=UTF8&psc=1

LOL one of the reviews. He could be speaking to Jim Cramer.

Given the daily barrage of investment shows, the non-stop stream of investment advice, the obsession of millions of Americans with the market--as a hobby, a lottery, a game at which you win or lose--this is a productive book to read even if you think you know the "investment answer" to begin with. The public's constant preoccupation with "star" fund managers, with ratings of funds that, after 10 years, tend to converge, whether growth funds or money market funds, in percentages gained and lost--all borders on Freudian narcissistic anal fixation.