Cards as an inflation hedge ?

Republicaninmass · #1 01-07-2022, 08:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Did you see in the Lealands auctions the 51 Bowman Mantle PSA 8 ? That was just in Memory Lane last July Selling for $498,000.
These cards can�t be purchased by collectors usually collectors keep them more than four months it�s like musical chairs with these so called investment pieces. They pushed it too high in the short term and they don�t have the balls to sit on it in the long term because they know they overinflated it.

Thanks Johnny, I didnt see that sale, but it's very telling, and not surprising. It wont surprise me with a "new record" sale. As the reddit crew says "stonks go up" .

Maybe someone can make a better quote "fractional ownership is great, if you are selling to the fractional buyer"

Johnny630 · #2 01-07-2022, 08:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

Thanks Johnny, I didnt see that sale, but it's very telling, and not surprising. It wont surprise me with a "new record" sale. As the reddit crew says "stonks go up" .

Maybe someone can make a better quote "fractional ownership is great, if you are selling to the fractional buyer"

LOL that�s funny.

They know they pushed it too far too quickly certain cards and they can�t stomach the pain to hold onto it that�s not a good sign.

Peter_Spaeth · #3 01-07-2022, 08:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

Thanks Johnny, I didnt see that sale, but it's very telling, and not surprising. It wont surprise me with a "new record" sale. As the reddit crew says "stonks go up" .

Maybe someone can make a better quote "fractional ownership is great, if you are selling to the fractional buyer"

I have long believed many auction sales prices are just for show, and since there's no transparency there's really no good way to know other than common sense.

Johnny630 · #4 01-07-2022, 08:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I have long believed many auction sales prices are just for show, and since there's no transparency there's really no good way to know other than common sense.

Are you saying you think many of these record auction sale cards were never actually really paid for ?

Republicaninmass · #5 01-07-2022, 08:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Are you saying you think many of these record auction sale cards were never actually really paid for ?

I wonder if "big spenders " are able to forgo the BUYERS premium on some items, as consignors often skip the sellers premium. It sure would shed some light on these...ahem. sales

Leon · #6 01-07-2022, 08:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Are you saying you think many of these record auction sale cards were never actually really paid for ?

My educated guess is that there are friends of friends bidding cards up...then if they win they work out a deal to make each other whole. But if smart (not really but..) they just jack the price up for the person who bought it.

As for diversification, before I sold my first collection I was card rich and cash poor. I took that money and invested it ...including some degrees for my daughter. I look at my resources as a pie chart. A 401k, a Roth, stocks in the market, home equity and rental property all go into the pie along with the cards. Diversification is good.,.,..
And the first card in my current collection (for Peter because he hasn't seen it enough)

bbcard1 · #7 01-07-2022, 09:00 AM

I have ben in no rush to buy or sell over the last couple of years...howewever I did finish a couple of nice sets (52B and 57T). Here's what I dislike about cards as a financial vehicle. If there is a baseball stoppage, and there will very likely be, values across the board tanked. It there was overproduction (and there has been over the last couple of years which has been camouflaged by excessive flippers) it makes it worse.

Having collected through the 1994 interruption, if there is a prolonged strike, I would look for a downward adjustment of at least 35% across the board. What's more, some things become all but unsellable.

What happened then doesn't mean it will happen now, but I think there's no reason to think it will be different either.

Peter_Spaeth · #8 01-07-2022, 09:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Are you saying you think many of these record auction sale cards were never actually really paid for ?

We know for a fact that was happening with some regularity in 2016 and I think it likely is happening again in some form.

Exhibitman · #9 01-07-2022, 09:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

We know for a fact that was happening with some regularity in 2016 and I think it likely is happening again in some form.

it is absolutely the case. If you use PSA's online price database and search for popular postwar cards you see sale after sale of the same cert #s month after month from PWCC and Probstein. That's not a legitimate collector suddenly deciding he doesn't want his 1954 Aaron, it is a shilled card that the winner never closed on because he already owns it.

Peter_Spaeth · #10 01-07-2022, 09:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

it is absolutely the case. If you use PSA's online price database and search for popular postwar cards you see sale after sale of the same cert #s month after month from PWCC and Probstein. That's not a legitimate collector suddenly deciding he doesn't want his 1954 Aaron, it is a shilled card that the winner never closed on because he already owns it.

And the "sale" prices get picked up by VCP and off we go.

Shoeless Moe · #11 01-07-2022, 09:50 AM

So did the Frogman really sell in the Fall?

https://goldinauctions.com/Honus_Wag...LOT118039.aspx

because it's back at Goldin:

https://goldin.co/item/honus-wagner-...ollectionqdbfp

iwantitiwinit · #12 01-07-2022, 09:55 AM

Simple laws of economics, there is simply too much money chasing too few goods. Vintage will hold its value or increase. You see the same thing happening with vintage cars, watches, art, etc.and I don't see it abating. Additionally, supply cannot increase while population, money supply, the wealthy getting wealthier, etc. are all increasing rapidly. Relative to using cards as an inflation hedge theoretically it could provide some protection but there are much more efficient ways, ie. buying the TBT which is the double inverse of the 20yr Treasury, as yields rise it trades higher.

Johnny630 · #13 01-07-2022, 09:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

We know for a fact that was happening with some regularity in 2016 and I think it likely is happening again in some form.

I totally agree with you it�s just not many people seem to want to bring it up. It�s like fantasy land. People don�t seem to want to talk about it because they want to think that their collection is also going up in that record fashion as well. The last few years a lot of the numbers I agree we�re fantasies

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