Cards as an inflation hedge ?

Exhibitman · #1 01-08-2022, 08:59 AM

The 1970s are not an appropriate analog for the present. The nature of the inflation is entirely different. Then, it was pressure caused by manipulated fuel prices (OPEC) that affected every sector of the economy and a hugely expensive war combined with expanded social programs. Today, it is transitory gaps in the global supply chain due to the pandemic combined with early retirements (a recent study found that 90% of the workers who quit and haven't come back are over 55 and retired early, and that of the retirees, only a third as many as normal came back, primarily due to workplace health concerns).

As for the PPP, Bob C has it right: it was intended to jack money into peoples' pockets immediately. If you spent it on payroll and some other door-opening expenses (like rent up to 25%), the loan was forgiven. If not, it was 1% interest repayable starting after a year.

I also would add that the ethics/morals arguments are meritless at their core because everyone can and does have a different interpretation of the concepts, which renders them amorphous and meaningless for argument. I think healthy people who refuse to get vaccinated are morally responsible for thousands of unnecessary deaths and billions in wasted hospital care. Someone else certainly disagrees. I don't believe in these sorts of squishy non-standards because we are a nation of laws. There is lawful and there is unlawful behavior, period. If someone behaves lawfully and you don't like it, change the law. Hate the game not the player.

Leon · #2 01-08-2022, 09:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

The 1970s are not an appropriate analog for the present. The nature of the inflation is entirely different. Then, it was pressure caused by manipulated fuel prices (OPEC) that affected every sector of the economy and a hugely expensive war combined with expanded social programs. Today, it is transitory gaps in the global supply chain due to the pandemic combined with early retirements (a recent study found that 90% of the workers who quit and haven't come back are over 55 and retired early, and that of the retirees, only a third as many as normal came back, primarily due to workplace health concerns).

As for the PPP, Bob C has it right: it was intended to jack money into peoples' pockets immediately. If you spent it on payroll and some other door-opening expenses (like rent up to 25%), the loan was forgiven. If not, it was 1% interest repayable starting after a year.

.

I also would add that the ethics/morals arguments are meritless at their core because everyone can and does have a different interpretation of the concepts, which renders them amorphous and meaningless for argument. I think healthy people who refuse to get vaccinated are morally responsible for thousands of unnecessary deaths and billions in wasted hospital care. Someone else certainly disagrees. I don't believe in these sorts of squishy non-standards because we are a nation of laws. There is lawful and there is unlawful behavior, period. If someone behaves lawfully and you don't like it, change the law. Hate the game not the player.

That sounds great Adam. But in reality I would bet almost no one pays back those loans. I know my friend isn't going to and I am sure there are 10s of thousands more. No matter what anyone says the government has totally screwed the pooch on the great cash giveaway. Inflation....not going anywhere soon. The very people at the lower end of the totem pole will have a little more money but it won't matter as inflation has increased faster. These are just facts. Anyone can debate them.. It's a shame our country is making it where you don't have to work to get a handout. NO income? No problem...you get free money too. Illegal? No problem, how many babies to you have so we can know how much free money you get. A bunch of total BS if you ask me.

,

Peter_Spaeth · #3 01-08-2022, 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leon

That sounds great Adam. But in reality I would bet almost no one pays back those loans. I know my friend isn't going to and I am sure there are 10s of thousands more. No matter what anyone says the government has totally screwed the pooch on the great cash giveaway. Inflation....not going anywhere soon. The very people at the lower end of the totem pole will have a little more money but it won't matter as inflation has increased faster. These are just facts. Anyone can debate them.. It's a shame our country is making it where you don't have to work to get a handout. NO income? No problem...you get free money too. Illegal? No problem, how many babies to you have so we can know how much free money you get. A bunch of total BS if you ask me.

,

I get the loan, I spend it on payroll, I then take the money I WOULD HAVE spent on payroll and buy a Porsche. The money is fungible.

Yoda · #4 01-08-2022, 10:47 AM

I think the point made about the massive number of folks who would be applying for unemployment if no PPP was unavailable is most valid. The states would then become involved, seeking federal aid; it would be a mess.
I do wonder how many of those who received the loans returned the money to the government. There must be stats for that kind of thing.

carlsonjok · #5 01-08-2022, 09:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

The 1970s are not an appropriate analog for the present. The nature of the inflation is entirely different. Then, it was pressure caused by manipulated fuel prices (OPEC) that affected every sector of the economy and a hugely expensive war combined with expanded social programs. Today, it is transitory gaps in the global supply chain due to the pandemic combined with early retirements (a recent study found that 90% of the workers who quit and haven't come back are over 55 and retired early, and that of the retirees, only a third as many as normal came back, primarily due to workplace health concerns).

I'm a supply chain manager and it is fairly well known in the field that this problem is particularly acute in the trucking industry, which wasn't really keeping up with retirements prior to the pandemic. I have heard anecdotally that the same thing is happening with longshoremen, which is contributing to backups at major ports like Long Beach and cascading effects back through the maritime cargo industry which was already strained.

PS Yes, I know I am getting way off topic, but my wife really doesn't care to listen to me talk about this stuff and sometimes you just need to get it out of your system. Blame her, not me.

PPS. Since every thread needs a card.

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