I simply do not understand Modern - Doncic vs Mantle

[Snowman]

Luka Doncic isn't just some chump or random top 10 player. You guys keep saying "he's done nothing". That's ridiculous. The guy won the Euroleague MVP at the age of 19! The youngest winner ever. That's no small feat. The Euroleague is legit. It's the 2nd highest level of basketball there is. What he's done already stats-wise at the age of 22 is unprecedented. He already has the most triple doubles of anyone ever by the age of 22 (and he still has more 22 year old games to play). More than Oscar Robertson, Magic Johnson, Lebron James, Jason Kidd, and Russell Westbrook. And while he's not the current favorite, it is noteworthy that Vegas betting lines opened the season with Luka as the favorite to win the MVP this season. He's not just good, he's great, and he has the potential to be a future multiple MVP winner. There's a reason his contemporaries praise his game as much as they do. The guy is the most impressive young player in the league by a long shot. And lol at whoever said Trae Young was better. You obviously don't know basketball. Defense matters, and Trae Young isn't just a poor defender, he is the worst ranked defensive player in NBA history going back as far as we have sufficient data to be able to evaluate defensive performance (which is something like the past 30 years). He is literally dead last. The worst defender over that timespan.

Whether his talents justify his market prices though is a different question. I agree that I would rather have a nice 52 Mantle than a similarly priced Luka card, but to compare a national treasures RPA card to a vintage base card is like comparing a signed game used Mickey Mantle jersey to a Mickey Mantle card. They're not even in the same ballpark. If there were the equivalent of an NT RPA Mantle card numbers to 99, I'm pretty sure that thing would FAR exceed any other Mantle card value wise. If you want to compare the flagship Mantle "RC" to the flagship Luka RC, then it's not the RPA, it's the Silver Prizm, and a PSA 10 of that goes for around $3k, not $300k. The National Treasures RPA cards are almost an entirely different form of collectible altogether. It's a high end product that is more akin to collecting memorabilia than it is cards, even though it technically is still a card. It's a limited edition product with a very low print run that caters to a very limited group of high end collectors. It's just a very different market.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Snowman

The guy is the most impressive young player in the league by a long shot.

This is an absurd statement. Ja Morant is a younger and better basketball player than Doncic. Every GM in the league would take Morant over Luka given the choice.

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

This is an absurd statement. Ja Morant is a younger and better basketball player than Doncic. Every GM in the league would take Morant over Luka given the choice.

You don't say. Even Monte McNair?

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

You don't say. Even Monte McNair?

I would think so, although their needs are at other positions, as DeAaron Fox is pretty damn good!

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

This is an absurd statement. Ja Morant is a younger and better basketball player than Doncic. Every GM in the league would take Morant over Luka given the choice.

I'm A HUGE Ja Morant fan. Every since murray state. I've been saying all along, "I don't know if Zion will pan out, but I KNOW Morant will be a superstar."

That said, he's still no Luka Doncic. Not even close. There isn't a single GM in the league who would take Morant over Luka. You don't know basketball if you think otherwise. You're a highlight reel watcher. Morant makes highlights. He's more fun to watch. But he's not a better player. Not even close.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Snowman

I'm A HUGE Ja Morant fan. Every since murray state. I've been saying all along, "I don't know if Zion will pan out, but I KNOW Morant will be a superstar."

That said, he's still no Luka Doncic. Not even close. There isn't a single GM in the league who would take Morant over Luka. You don't know basketball if you think otherwise. You're a highlight reel watcher. Morant makes highlights. He's more fun to watch. But he's not a better player. Not even close.

Lol!! You are insufferable, and this comment is so ignorant it's not worth continuing the debate even if you weren't so obnoxious.

That said, just for humor's sake I am going to save this post right next to the one where you claim Hyun Jin Ryu is better than Warren Spahn.

[Eric72]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

...Hyun Jin Ryu is better than Warren Spahn...

I don't know, maybe he has a point. After all, Hyun Jin Ryu has three names compared to Spahn's two...and he did it with fewer letters.

You can't argue with statistics.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Eric72

I don't know, maybe he has a point. After all, Hyun Jin Ryu has three names compared to Spahn's two...and he did it with fewer letters.

You can't argue with statistics.

Haha!

[Seven]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

Lol!! You are insufferable, and this comment is so ignorant it's not worth continuing the debate even if you weren't so obnoxious.

That said, just for humor's sake I am going to save this post right next to the one where you claim Hyun Jin Ryu is better than Warren Spahn.

That's when I removed myself from the conversation on the best lefty thread.

Getting back to the purpose of the thread, I honestly think the Doncic card is the perfect reflection of the Modern card market. Doncic is very marketable, appeals to a lot of people and ever since his record setting card a little bit ago, people want to keep buying more of him, that are into Modern.

Mantle is iconic, for the post war Hobby. I do think Vintage does tend to sway a bit towards the older crowd however, and even if Mantle's 52 Topps, transcends that, many of the modern collectors crowd probably has the mindset of, "Well it's not shiny, it's not autographed, it's just a regular card." Mantle's cards do operate, off a sort of Nostalgia of the clean cut, All American Boy, from Oklahoma, who could smack a couple of homers and then go out and party with his pals after the game. I think also the majority of Mantle collectors either fall into the categories of A) Grew up watching him or B) Had fathers who grew up watching him.

Doncic is all the rage now. He's Young, very talented, on the world stage of one of the most popular sports, his cards will reflect that. I don't really understand it either, it's not rational, but neither is this card market, or the fact that digital pixels are selling for thousands of dollars, but NFT's are another discussion.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

Lol!! You are insufferable, and this comment is so ignorant it's not worth continuing the debate even if you weren't so obnoxious.

That said, just for humor's sake I am going to save this post right next to the one where you claim Hyun Jin Ryu is better than Warren Spahn.

Ryu is better than Warren Spahn. Along with probably almost half the league today. And again, it's not even close. You're free to think otherwise though. I really couldn't care less.

As for Doncic vs Morant, there's a lot more to the game of basketball than slashing and cutting to the rim for poster dunks. The reasons Doncic is better than Morant are the same reasons that Jokic won the MVP last year.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Ryu is better than Warren Spahn. Along with probably almost half the league today. And again, it's not even close. You're free to think otherwise though. I really couldn't care less.

As for Doncic vs Morant, there's a lot more to the game of basketball than slashing and cutting to the rim for poster dunks. The reasons Doncic is better than Morant are the same reasons that Jokic won the MVP last year.

Another nonsensical comment. I can't help but wonder if you are as much of a self-righteous prick in real life as you come across on this board.

Like, if you go to dinner with someone and you disagree about the quality of the food, do you proceed to tell them how they "obviously don't know cuisine"?

Or, at breakfast, do you proselytize to whomever you're with about how your statistical analysis proves that you and you alone have determined the correct milk-to-cereal ratio and if anyone disagrees, "you couldn't care less"?

Readers will notice that you have failed to back up your ridiculous position with your own beloved statistics, and instead have resorted to baseless insults. I wonder why?

Let's compare their career stats per 36 minutes:

FG% Morant +1.6%

3PT% Morant +.1%

FT% Morant +1.8%

Rebounds Doncic +4.1

Assist to Turnover Ratio
Morant 2.19:1
Doncic 1.95:1

Steals Doncic +.4

Blocks Doncic +.1

Pts Doncic +4.9

Consider also their qualities as on and off the court leaders, and it will make sense why Morant would be widely preferred among GMs if an anonymous poll was taken today.

Or, perhaps you could use your Silicon Valley VC contacts to reach out to Zach Kleiman and ask him if he would trade Morant for Doncic. Then let us know the number of expletives that his negative response to you contains.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Maybe I don't know the new BKB metrics, but if Doncic scores 5 more points with 4 more rebounds, it's not entirely obvious to me that Morant is clearly better? Where at least stat wise is this clear edge to Morant?

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

Another nonsensical comment. I can't help but wonder if you are as much of a self-righteous prick in real life as you come across on this board.

Like, if you go to dinner with someone and you disagree about the quality of the food, do you proceed to tell them how they "obviously don't know cuisine"?

Or, at breakfast, do you proselytize to whomever you're with about how your statistical analysis proves that you and you alone have determined the correct milk-to-cereal ratio and if anyone disagrees, "you couldn't care less"?

Readers will notice that you have failed to back up your ridiculous position with your own beloved statistics, and instead have resorted to baseless insults. I wonder why?

Let's compare their career stats per 36 minutes:

FG% Morant +1.6%

3PT% Morant +.1%

FT% Morant +1.8%

Rebounds Doncic +4.1

Assist to Turnover Ratio
Morant 2.19:1
Doncic 1.95:1

Steals Doncic +.4

Blocks Doncic +.1

Pts Doncic +4.9

Consider also their qualities as on and off the court leaders, and it will make sense why Morant would be widely preferred among GMs if an anonymous poll was taken today.

Or, perhaps you could use your Silicon Valley VC contacts to reach out to Zach Kleiman and ask him if he would trade Morant for Doncic. Then let us know the number of expletives that his negative response to you contains.

The only person I see casting insults in this thread is you. I gave my opinion on Luka vs Morant. You are more than free to disagree with me. Again, I really don't care. But let's not pretend like I'm the one in here calling you names.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

This is an absurd statement. Ja Morant is a younger and better basketball player than Doncic. Every GM in the league would take Morant over Luka given the choice.

I was asking my son if Ja Morant was still good. He said he is still good but after the gun incident nobody likes him. Then I started to wonder how his cards are doing and I remembered this thread and I saw this quote/ statement. Still accurate?

Also, it’s a fun reread. How has Doncic’s major rookie cards held up against the 52 Mantle over the past 2.5 years since I started this thread? My gut is the Mantle has done much much better than Doncic over the past 2.5 years.

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I was asking my son if Ja Morant was still good. He said he is still good but after the gun incident nobody likes him. Then I started to wonder how his cards are doing and I remembered this thread and I saw this quote/ statement. Still accurate?

Also, it’s a fun reread. How has Doncic’s major rookie cards held up against the 52 Mantle over the past 2.5 years since I started this thread? My gut is the Mantle has done much much better than Doncic over the past 2.5 years.

Cursory examination of recent eBay auctions has the Doncics in the $10-$20k range and the Mantles in the $25-$50k range. I'm not sure in either case if these are the same ones that were going for low-mid 6-figures a couple of years. ago

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by darwinbulldog

Cursory examination of recent eBay auctions has the Doncics in the $10-$20k range and the Mantles in the $25-$50k range. I'm not sure in either case if these are the same ones that were going for low-mid 6-figures a couple of years. ago

The OP compared the early 2022 auction prices of a 2018 Luca Doncic National Treasurers RPA to 99 graded BVG 9.5 to a 1952 Topps Mantle PSA 7. At that time, a Doncic was at auction in PWCC and sitting at $280k before Buyers Premium and a Mantle being sold in the same auction was at $240k before Buyers Premium.

Looking on Ebay, Fanatics Collect (whatever that is) has the same exact Donci card discussed above as available for sale for $85,000. That is literally 25% of what it was at, with Buyer's premium, in January 2022. Wow, 75% reduction, and that's just asking price. My gut is at auction it sells for even less, which frankly, it should as I dont see why its worth more than $!0k.

Meanwhile, the last sale of a PSA 7, 1952 Topps Mantle, and the only 2024 example in VCP, was for $264k, which is the average of two late 2023 sales. While this is way down from a high of $468k in late 2022 (45%), its only down 8% from where it was in January 2022 (with BP) when the thread was started.

Bottom line, and I think we all know this: Doncic has completely crashed since early 2022 and, while 1952 Topps Mantle is down since that time, it has held up monumentally better than Doncic. Conclusion -- Mantle over Doncic 100 out of 100 times.

As for Morant vs Doncic...... I dont care; I only collect dead baseball players who were played before my grandparents were born

[samosa4u]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

The OP compared the early 2022 auction prices of a 2018 Luca Doncic National Treasurers RPA to 99 graded BVG 9.5 to a 1952 Topps Mantle PSA 7. At that time, a Doncic was at auction in PWCC and sitting at $280k before Buyers Premium and a Mantle being sold in the same auction was at $240k before Buyers Premium.

Looking on Ebay, Fanatics Collect (whatever that is) has the same exact Donci card discussed above as available for sale for $85,000. That is literally 25% of what it was at, with Buyer's premium, in January 2022. Wow, 75% reduction, and that's just asking price. My gut is at auction it sells for even less, which frankly, it should as I dont see why its worth more than $!0k.

Meanwhile, the last sale of a PSA 7, 1952 Topps Mantle, and the only 2024 example in VCP, was for $264k, which is the average of two late 2023 sales. While this is way down from a high of $468k in late 2022 (45%), its only down 8% from where it was in January 2022 (with BP) when the thread was started.

Bottom line, and I think we all know this: Doncic has completely crashed since early 2022 and, while 1952 Topps Mantle is down since that time, it has held up monumentally better than Doncic. Conclusion -- Mantle over Doncic 100 out of 100 times.

As for Morant vs Doncic...... I dont care; I only collect dead baseball players who were played before my grandparents were born

There were a few PSA 8 Mantles that went for over 2M back in 2021 and one of these cards sold again last year for 1.1M - ouch!
Some dude bought a PSA 9 in 2021 for over 5M, and based on what happened to the 8, he'd probably lose millions if he sold today.

Another thing we have to look at here is ROI. Even before the pandemic, 99% of us couldn't afford to buy a 52T Mantle. Who had over 100k lying around for a PSA 7? But a Doncic NT or Mahomes NT or Curry NT or LeBron Exquisite RPA, etc. was doable. If you bought any of these modern cards back then for 5k or 10k or even 20k, and you were to sell today, then your ROI is gonna' be much better (compared to buying a PSA 7 Mantle for 120k and selling for double today).

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

The OP compared the early 2022 auction prices of a 2018 Luca Doncic National Treasurers RPA to 99 graded BVG 9.5 to a 1952 Topps Mantle PSA 7. At that time, a Doncic was at auction in PWCC and sitting at $280k before Buyers Premium and a Mantle being sold in the same auction was at $240k before Buyers Premium.

Looking on Ebay, Fanatics Collect (whatever that is) has the same exact Donci card discussed above as available for sale for $85,000. That is literally 25% of what it was at, with Buyer's premium, in January 2022. Wow, 75% reduction, and that's just asking price. My gut is at auction it sells for even less, which frankly, it should as I dont see why its worth more than $!0k.

Meanwhile, the last sale of a PSA 7, 1952 Topps Mantle, and the only 2024 example in VCP, was for $264k, which is the average of two late 2023 sales. While this is way down from a high of $468k in late 2022 (45%), its only down 8% from where it was in January 2022 (with BP) when the thread was started.

Bottom line, and I think we all know this: Doncic has completely crashed since early 2022 and, while 1952 Topps Mantle is down since that time, it has held up monumentally better than Doncic. Conclusion -- Mantle over Doncic 100 out of 100 times.

As for Morant vs Doncic...... I dont care; I only collect dead baseball players who were played before my grandparents were born

I bought an Iverson rookie insert for my son 5 years ago for $133. in 2021 it shot up to over $1000, with one goofy sale on 2/15/21 of $3888. This year the prices have settled down and are in the $400s. The basketball market has been a wild ride.

[packs]

LeBron Topps Chrome rookies have taken a serious hit. They were selling for prices that weren't far off from Jordan for a while. In the last REA auction a 9.5 went for $1,300.

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

I bought an Iverson rookie insert for my son 5 years ago for $133. in 2021 it shot up to over $1000, with one goofy sale on 2/15/21 of $3888. This year the prices have settled down and are in the $400s. The basketball market has been a wild ride.

I bought a bunch of Darius Garland rookie cards at the height of the market for about $300 each. Not my best investment. They dropped to $10 earlier this year, and now with Cleveland in first place they've rallied to $30.

But this is the same market in which I bought a bunch of Leo Messi cards for $20 each and sold them later the same year for $800-$1000 each, so I suppose it worked out alright on balance.