What explains this?

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Kutcher55

I think the OP’s rationale is correct. It’s like a lottery ticket or a calculated gamble and in the case of the 72 Bench a bad one. It’s a beautiful card but has a slight Diamond tilt and a small ink mark near his name. Unlikely to grade better than an 8.

Actually makes a lot of sense when you compare this to the kind of odds people that buy Breaks face that are looking for those high dollar hits. In this case, the buyer knows exactly what card/player they're getting, and they can at least see a scan of the card's condition so they know pretty well up front if there is a decent chance the card can get the grade they're hoping for. Breaks are simply PDBL (Pure Dumb Blind Luck).

[joshleon]

Originally Posted by BobC

Actually makes a lot of sense when you compare this to the kind of odds people that buy Breaks face that are looking for those high dollar hits. In this case, the buyer knows exactly what card/player they're getting, and they can at least see a scan of the card's condition so they know pretty well up front if there is a decent chance the card can get the grade they're hoping for. Breaks are simply PDBL (Pure Dumb Blind Luck).

Good point. I think people buying a break can at least get a solid # on their expected value. If you buy ten spots in a break you can add the value of the entire set and what your EV is (hint: it's always negative if the seller knows what they're doing).

I would argue the EV on hoping for a PSA10 is somewhat less quantifiable. There are qualities about the cards you can't identify. Also, you cannot get inside the black box of grading (difference between 8/9/10) that is PSA/SGC.


And this partly explains the explosion in prices if you ask me. What do people do when they try to decide how much to bid? They look at comps. Comps of people basically "irrationally betting" pushes them up even higher. Exact definition of a bubble.

TLDR: It just seems nuts.