Hobby Resilience - Long Term

troutbum97 · #1 02-19-2022, 10:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RedlegsFan

#1, people right now under 30 want to know what a mickey mantle is used for, and why Aaron Rogers is still playing at 61 years old.

Obviously we know these statements are out of wack. Mickey Mantle is a person, not an object, and Aaron Rogers is hardly 38 years old. This is the type of thing that leads me to believe vintage cardboard is going to steadily decline. Though finite, vintage cards are only of a fiat value measured in a fiat currency. And neither cards or currency can feed the children, or keep the wife warm in winters.

The last time i checked, Rocket Mortgage and WellsFargo are holding firm on refusal to accept Nolan Ryan or Jackie Robinson rookies as adequate or acceptable payment. My view may be tough to swallow, as i certainly know there are many on this board who buy-sell cards worth thousands apiece, several time a day. I�m just saying, eventually the hobby underwriters that keep our artificially inflated market afloat will likely remain mortal, and sports card portfolios will be left with nobody to give a flying hoot about Dimaggio. This means they�ll have to decide whether or not they want to be buried with Pete Rose and Gehrig cards, or cut and run. Full disclosure, i believe i will be buried with my cards.

Unless i can defend my family with it, transport my children to safety with it, use it to slay a marauder, eat it, or live underneath it, i don�t bank on it.

$28,000 for a glittery Pokemon card or a mere NBA prospect whose first release rookie card auctions at $16,782 before they even play one game is more than enough evidence to credit my prophecy, the value of my vintage cards will soon perish. Maybe not right away, but soon enough.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Poetic & interesting post, but a few glaring inaccuracies:

1. Can never treat modern & vintage the same or similarly in any market analysis.

2. The folks who are focused on feeding the children & keeping the wife warm are not the folks buying T206 Cobbs and 1933 Goudey Ruth�s.

obcbobd · #2 02-19-2022, 03:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by troutbum97

2. The folks who are focused on feeding the children & keeping the wife warm are not the folks buying T206 Cobbs and 1933 Goudey Ruth�s.

I would think so, but every now and then I will see someone selling a $5k card saying they need the money for an unplanned expense such as a major auto repair. Makes me wonder.

Hankphenom · #3 02-19-2022, 10:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by obcbobd

I would think so, but every now and then I will see someone selling a $5k card saying they need the money for an unplanned expense such as a major auto repair. Makes me wonder.

What does it make you wonder about?

Foo3112 · #4 02-20-2022, 02:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

What does it make you wonder about?

I didn't write that but I'm guessing that people should have some sort of an emergency savings account rather than spending every single dollar on cards.

obcbobd · #5 02-20-2022, 05:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Foo3112

I didn't write that but I'm guessing that people should have some sort of an emergency savings account rather than spending every single dollar on cards.

Good answer.

But if you have to ask

Johnny630 · #6 02-20-2022, 02:01 PM

I have noticed over the past year and a half there is a major divergence in price cards sell for at AH’s vs Card Shows.

I’ve found most at shows other then the National that people Aren’t Dropping 5 figures on Graded cards at shows, not happening. People are being smart at shows buying mid level Graded and Raw. They’re not spending at shows like that people are definitely being careful.

Foo3112 · #7 02-20-2022, 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Johnny630

I have noticed over the past year and a half there is a major divergence in price cards sell for at AH�s vs Card Shows.

I�ve found most at shows other then the National that people Aren�t Dropping 5 figures on Graded cards at shows, not happening. People are being smart at shows buying mid level Graded and Raw. They�re not spending at shows like that people are definitely being careful.

In October, I attended the Dallas Card Show and I saw the biggest stack of cash I had ever seen. I have seen 130K in person. This stack was much bigger. All Cash. There was a 2009 Bowman Chrome Trout Refractor PSA graded and some other cards being sold. They were counting the money. The guy who was buying did not appear to be a dealer either and I did not catch him behind a table both days I attended.

Hankphenom · #8 02-20-2022, 03:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Foo3112

I didn't write that but I'm guessing that people should have some sort of an emergency savings account rather than spending every single dollar on cards.

True, the numbers on how many Americans wouldn't be able to come up with $400 for an emergency are mind-boggling, but cards (and other sports collectibles) have actually proven to be a pretty good repository of value to meet unexpected expenses. Several times they have been just that for me.

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