Under The Radar Basketball Cards (investment)

Gorditadogg · #1 03-08-2022, 05:45 PM

I like the stickers, even though they aren't scarce, it sounds like high-grade and centered cards could become more desirable, and there are not a lot of cards anyway of the old NBA stars. And I also like the idea of picking out oddball vintage items, especially in the years without Topps or Fleer issues.

My strategy has always been to buy some of everything and see what happens. I doubt it's the best way to accumulate value but hey, it is the most inclusive.

Republicaninmass · #2 03-08-2022, 05:55 PM

Stickers..one per pack. Supposed to be stuck to stuff. Makes sense they'd be desirable in the future

hauntedcomputer · #3 03-22-2022, 09:10 AM

To me future "investment" (an iffy word to use in connection with a hobby) will depend on which way newer ultramodern collectors go after getting burned badly on overpriced, overproduced slabs.

Will they go a tier down into 90s inserts, or into the 80s? I would guess Star cards really have good potential in that scenario, but with far too many speculative factors involved (Will PSA ever grade them? Will they ever get mainstream attention? Will AI grading ever be able to accurately detect fake Jordans?). Compared to the 80s stickers, the pops of Star cards are relatively stable and known and rare. Most importantly, those are what I call "gap year" cards that cover some of the greatest. 87 set further hurt by lack of rookies that drive set values and collector appeal.

Or will modern collectors recognize the tremendously rare-in-comparison cards of 48, 57 and 61, players they may know little about? Or will they see 70s basketball as undervalued like I do, but I think their value growth has been pushed forward too much over the past couple of years and basically most cards will be waiting for the next generational boom in 20-30 years.

Probably some of each, but my guess is most will leave the hobby like they did in the 90s crash. So my strategy is to only buy what I like and only spend what I can afford to lose completely. If the market vanishes, I still have what I like and don't have to guess.

Good luck!

Exhibitman · #4 03-22-2022, 12:11 PM

The other thing I won't do (and I am a broken record on this but here goes) is rely on condition rarity for long term value. The odds of PSA finding more 10s and 9s of modern mainstream cards among the millions submitted every year are a lot better than the odds of suddenly finding more of the items like those I've scanned. I know, because I am chasing the damned things. That makes modern cards an inherently riskier bet. I actually like the prospects of the Star true RCs better than most modern precisely because the print runs were a tiny fraction of the mainstream cards. I know, demand factors into it, but that would indicate lack of undervaluation.

The above notwithstanding certain marquee cards that are readily available but that have lives of their own as cornerstones of a collection: 1986 Fleer Jordan, 1979 Topps Magic-Bird, 1969 Topps Alcindor, 1961 Fleer Chamberlain, 1957 Topps Russell, 1948 Bowman Mikan. There's probably a LeBron that qualifies but I don't know enough about that era's issues to state which it is.

JustinD · #5 03-25-2022, 10:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

The other thing I won't do (and I am a broken record on this but here goes) is rely on condition rarity for long term value. The odds of PSA finding more 10s and 9s of modern mainstream cards among the millions submitted every year are a lot better than the odds of suddenly finding more of the items like those I've scanned. I know, because I am chasing the damned things. That makes modern cards an inherently riskier bet. I actually like the prospects of the Star true RCs better than most modern precisely because the print runs were a tiny fraction of the mainstream cards. I know, demand factors into it, but that would indicate lack of undervaluation.

As per usual stellar advice from Adam in this thread for you.

I would second that early material seems to be undervalued in my mind if you look for auction formats and avoid the high BINs out there. With my son we focus heavily in 61' fleer and prior releases as the supply is somewhat finite. I have tons of pre-50s programs and historical material as it is underappreciated but tons of fun. The 61's and 48's are certainly lower in my perception in the past 8 months or so as the new money has focused on new rookies and releases. Much of that market is falling apart at the seams with even a slightly critical eye as several cases of mass submitters going bankrupt as those sending cards have stopped paying for useless stacks of psa cards now coming back worth a fraction of the grading fees.

The 500 dollar Zion of a year ago is 75, Ja cards are dropping not to lack of talent but saturation. At one point the highest submission at PSA was speculators sending 88 through 90 Jordan's. For example, there are now 33,035 graded 90 fleer Jordans and growing ... in my mind completely worthless. It's a 5 dollar wax box, like hoops and the rest. 1989 - 15,944, in perspective there are only 35,585 1989 Fleer cards graded. That is 44% of the population of the entire set! 1988 - 18,012, 1987 - 15,252...and the beat goes on.

Take those numbers and conservatively double them for graded examples done by Beckett, CSG, SGC, and the others.

Now leaning into the discussion at hand on 87' fleer stickers, 18,422 total graded cards at PSA. Likely at least another 10k with the competition. Admittedly very small populations of 10's due to QC, but in my mind the 9's are not that rare looking at demand.

Which is more likely? That the oversaturation of these sets continues to make waves in a negative way and the realization is that those years are deservedly not special and values plummet as the Millennials can't flip them anymore. Or...that the collapse of that market leads to huge growth in a subsection of sticker inserts?

You can do as you wish, however you used the dreaded "investment" word that pulls in a critical analysis. My thoughts looking at the numbers that continue to grow daily and the waning base...those late 80's-90's sets are paddling on the edge of a very big whirlpool.

Again do what you want, but the word "investment" is never used in my hobby thoughts because then I lose the fun and start buying crap I don't even like.

Exhibitman · #6 03-25-2022, 11:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JustinD

Again do what you want, but the word "investment" is never used in my hobby thoughts because then I lose the fun and start buying crap I don't even like.

That's a very good point. I only buy what I enjoy. Probably why I don't have boxes of unopened 1986-88 Fleer sitting in a closet, because I remember them being blown out at shows when they were last year's wax. But hey, who wants to be rich, right?

Also true that invoking the "i" word kills the love and inserts the profiteering analysis in its place.

As your examples indicate, modern is incredibly volatile. If you can put away a small stack of the phenom of the year on the cheap, that's a sound play with minimal risk, but paying thousands in the hopes that the next MJ is there, that's a fool's errand.

Similar Threads
Thread	Thread Starter	Forum	Replies	Last Post
What do you think is the greatest year ever by a player way under the radar?	CMIZ5290	Net54baseball Vintage (WWII & Older) Baseball Cards & New Member Introductions	89	11-06-2019 09:25 PM
Speed radar gun marketing	Leon	WaterCooler Talk- Off Topics	4	09-07-2017 06:12 PM
FB cards as an investment?	jefferyepayne	Football Cards Forum	37	09-18-2012 03:59 AM
Best cards for investment !!!!!!	JJA	Net54baseball Vintage (WWII & Older) Baseball Cards & New Member Introductions	6	12-29-2009 06:38 PM
Investment Grade Cards	Archive	Net54baseball Vintage (WWII & Older) Baseball Cards & New Member Introductions	9	01-10-2006 02:36 PM