A thought on older psa graded commons.

[Dandor]

Originally Posted by bounce

A "spike" is unlikely, a steady slow increase over time makes some sense at certain grade levels (I would say PSA 5+ for 50s and PSA 7+ for 60s and later)

PSA likely gets back to $25 grading at some point, so might consider using that as an implied floor at some point, but there are still lots of nice looking commons for registry sets that can be had for less than that obviously

PSA will be back to $25 in 4 months and $15 early next year. This is happening very soon and we will have great collectors club specials and bulk in 2023. PSA graded 1 million cards in March and only 150,000 were new submissions. Once the backlog is done, PSA will need over 1 million cards per month to be submitted. Just be patient and you can get your vintage commons graded much sooner than you think!

[bobbyw8469]

Originally Posted by Dandor

PSA will be back to $25 in 4 months and $15 early next year. This is happening very soon and we will have great collectors club specials and bulk in 2023. PSA graded 1 million cards in March and only 150,000 were new submissions. Once the backlog is done, PSA will need over 1 million cards per month to be submitted. Just be patient and you can get your vintage commons graded much sooner than you think!

I concur.

[rand1com]

Originally Posted by Dandor

PSA will be back to $25 in 4 months and $15 early next year. This is happening very soon and we will have great collectors club specials and bulk in 2023. PSA graded 1 million cards in March and only 150,000 were new submissions. Once the backlog is done, PSA will need over 1 million cards per month to be submitted. Just be patient and you can get your vintage commons graded much sooner than you think!

No chance IMO.

They are still a year behind in most of the bulk categories. They currently are allowing very limited action at the $50 level. If they opened up the $50 level to unlimited submissions, they would be overwhelmed.

They may get to $25 at some point in time but not in 4 months.

There is too much demand for their service to ever go back to a $15 level IMO.

So, in late August we can revisit this post and see who is right.

[ncinin]

I may be wrong but I think recently I read or saw on YouTube an interview with Nat Turner where he said the $20 service levels are most likely not ever returning.

[Dandor]

Originally Posted by ncinin

I may be wrong but I think recently I read or saw on YouTube an interview with Nat Turner where he said the $20 service levels are most likely not ever returning.

He tweeted on March 31 that he wants to get back to $12. With a second location next year it will happen with collector's club specials. You won't see ultra-modern cards at that price for a while, but we will see this next year in my opinion unless we get another 2021 boom. Which is not likely.

[ncinin]

Originally Posted by Dandor

He tweeted on March 31 that he wants to get back to $12. With a second location next year it will happen with collector's club specials. You won't see ultra-modern cards at that price for a while, but we will see this next year in my opinion unless we get another 2021 boom. Which is not likely.

I remember where I read Nat Turner’s comment on low end grading.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/brettkn...h=7b0665ab13df


It was a March 30 Forbes article where it states

“Turner says he hopes to return to the normal submission process in the next few months, but all involved concede that the days of $12 service fees for low-end cards are over”

But you say Nat tweeted a day later he hopes to get back to $12 so who knows.

[Dandor]

Grading is a supply and demand issue just like any service or good. Right now, because of backlogs, grading companies have the upper edge. PSA/SGC/CSG/BGS are taking in approximately 350,000 submissions every month. In October we will have 1.5 million submissions available every month. In 2023 it may be closer to 2 million a month with the big four and PSA with a second location. The market will dictate the price of grading. These companies all expanded and can't just fire graders. They invested in equipment, rental space, increased slab orders, etc... Of course, PSA wants to grade 1.5 million cards at $50 a piece. However, the hobby is not that strong right now. Most cards are down 50% from when the boom happened.

[glynparson]

Originally Posted by rand1com

No chance IMO.

They are still a year behind in most of the bulk categories. They currently are allowing very limited action at the $50 level. If they opened up the $50 level to unlimited submissions, they would be overwhelmed.

They may get to $25 at some point in time but not in 4 months.

There is too much demand for their service to ever go back to a $15 level IMO.

So, in late August we can revisit this post and see who is right.

The time frame may be slightly off but it will happen and there are people who have unlimited submission capability now at below $50.

[rand1com]

Originally Posted by glynparson

The time frame may be slightly off but it will happen and there are people who have unlimited submission capability now at below $50.

Maybe auction houses and their largest customers but not the common collector. They know if they open it up to all at $50 now they will be inundated.

[Dandor]

Originally Posted by rand1com

Maybe auction houses and their largest customers but not the common collector. They know if they open it up to all at $50 now they will be inundated.

I think you would be surprised. Interest is definitely going away for the $50 grading. People are joining queues late and still getting 20 plus card submissions. It is basically open right now.

I deal with experimental data for a living and I can tell you that my predictions of 4 months is not a guess. I have taken the data given and made a pretty solid prediction. I will let you know exactly how I come up with my answer.

Right now, the backlog is at 4.5 million cards, probably less than that. PSA has a podcast where they have been updating this information. Last month the graded 1 million cards. PSA said at a recent conference that 85% of the cards graded are from the backlog. At a minimum every month, that will be 850,000 cards graded from the backlog each month if they don't increase capacity. The backlog will be done in 5 months.

However, they will be opening up extra services in 4 months. Even though it will take them 5 months to clear the backlog, they will need cards to have ready once it is gone. In 4 months from now, I am very confident that we will see at least queues for $25 grading.

What is the demand right now for $50 grading if they opened it up? It is more than 150,000 cards for sure. However, PSA is using queues to cap this number for turnaround times. During the next 4 months $50 grading will be opened up at some point. You can already see on the forums that a lot of people are done with $50 grading and also asking people if they want to submit through them because they are not using their allotment.

In October, this year, PSA will have the capacity to receive 1 to 1.2 million cards per month and not have a backlog. Do you think there is demand for 1.2 million cards a month at $50 per card? The answer is absolutely not. Plus you have to consider the other grading companies. If SGC needs cards, they will have to drop prices. CSG has large capacity as well. BGS is almost done with their backlog as well. By October this year, we will be over 1.5 million cards capacity to be graded with the big 4 without any backlog.

I can say this with 100% certainty. $25 grading will be here by August or October at the latest. (Edit - This Year!)