Why has market gone crazy? And outlook?

[japhi]

Q1 GDP was negative 1.4%. I believe we are in for some interesting times - QE winding down, 7-8 interest rate hikes, wild inflation. Card market is already contracting (broadly, doesn't mean what you collect is).

Personally I won't be making any big card or other consumer purchases, highly suspect there be many folks caught naked (over leveraged) when this tide goes out. Toys will be going on sale soon.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by japhi

Q1 GDP was negative 1.4%. I believe we are in for some interesting times - QE winding down, 7-8 interest rate hikes, wild inflation. Card market is already contracting (broadly, doesn't mean what you collect is).

Personally I won't be making any big card or other consumer purchases, highly suspect there be many folks caught naked (over leveraged) when this tide goes out. Toys will be going on sale soon.

I have been thinking this way for 2 years and have been dead wrong.

Middle and low grade cards have pulled back because this inflation is affecting the middle class ..... conversely inflation has little to no affect on 5 and 6 figure buyers on Mile High, REA, and just wait till Memory Lane. Higher Higher and Higher a 53 Mantle PSA 7 sold for 47k along with a SGC 7.5 Mantle selling for over 15k in REA's last auction.

The rich get richer...the poor get poorer... and the middle class pay more and will spend less. Cards are still bullish IMO just not low and middle grade.

[japhi]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

I have been thinking this way for 2 years and have been dead wrong.

Middle and low grade cards have pulled back because this inflation is affecting the middle class ..... conversely inflation has little to no affect on 5 and 6 figure buyers on Mile High, REA, and just wait till Memory Lane. Higher Higher and Higher a 53 Mantle PSA 7 sold for 47k along with a SGC 7.5 Mantle selling for over 15k in REA's last auction.

The rich get richer...the poor get poorer... and the middle class pay more and will spend less. Cards are still bullish IMO just not low and middle grade.

Lots of high value cards are WAY off ATH's. Mostly modern, mostly BKB, but upwards of 80% declines.

Recency bias says says that assets like cards, homes, art, vehicles will go up forever but we know that isn't true. Can't think of an asset class that doesn't correct periodically, and the correction is typically in proportion to the run up. We are way overdue for a big reset.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by japhi

Lots of high value cards are WAY off ATH's. Mostly modern, mostly BKB, but upwards of 80% declines.

Recency bias says says that assets like cards, homes, art, vehicles will go up forever but we know that isn't true. Can't think of an asset class that doesn't correct periodically, and the correction is typically in proportion to the run up. We are way overdue for a big reset.

Correction yes...big reset I do not see in higher grade vintage. To much big money is hedged in this now...idk I could be wrong. LoL either way very cool having this conversation, I like your thinking.

[joshleon]

Originally Posted by japhi

Lots of high value cards are WAY off ATH's. Mostly modern, mostly BKB, but upwards of 80% declines.

Recency bias says says that assets like cards, homes, art, vehicles will go up forever but we know that isn't true. Can't think of an asset class that doesn't correct periodically, and the correction is typically in proportion to the run up. We are way overdue for a big reset.

When has that EVER happened with blue chip cards...flattening and some pull back yes, but no one has ever taken a bath on T206 cobb or 33 Goudey Ruth.

Correct me if I am wrong.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by joshleon

When has that EVER happened with blue chip cards...flattening and some pull back yes, but no one has ever taken a bath on T206 cobb or 33 Goudey Ruth.

Correct me if I am wrong.

Never wrong, just early.

[joshleon]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Never wrong, just early.

Being early is the same as being wrong.

I can call a card from a deck and if you keep flipping them, eventually I'll be right. Was I just "early" saying I could predict the card?

[G1911]

My theory is that prices escalated because I was getting to the point where I could afford to responsibly buy some of the nicer cards. The market realized this was unacceptable and so everything doubled.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by joshleon

Being early is the same as being wrong.

I can call a card from a deck and if you keep flipping them, eventually I'll be right. Was I just "early" saying I could predict the card?

Not a good analogy. Buying an asset before it takes off is investing. Buying an asset when it is down is a contrarian strategy that has been around for hundreds of years. If Ruth cards cratered I'd buy more. Besides, they're fun!

[japhi]

Originally Posted by joshleon

When has that EVER happened with blue chip cards...flattening and some pull back yes, but no one has ever taken a bath on T206 cobb or 33 Goudey Ruth.

Correct me if I am wrong.

I don’t follow those cards but there are lots of cards like 86 Jordan, DR J rook that are more then 50% off ATH’s. Broadly, the card market is way off ATH’s.

[joshleon]

Originally Posted by japhi

I don’t follow those cards but there are lots of cards like 86 Jordan, DR J rook that are more then 50% off ATH’s. Broadly, the card market is way off ATH’s.

As they should be IMO. Crazy

[cardsagain74]

Originally Posted by japhi

I don’t follow those cards but there are lots of cards like 86 Jordan, DR J rook that are more then 50% off ATH’s. Broadly, the card market is way off ATH’s.

'86 to '88 Fleer Hoops has done much worse than just about any other segment of the market since the Feb '21 peak. A 70-75% drop across the board.

But they'd also had some of the biggest gains beforehand.

I think the overall card market has held up pretty well since the pandemic boom. Basketball, hockey, and modern everything corrected the most...but again, those are where the most incredible gains were first.

Blue chip baseball and football hasn't corrected nearly as much. 20-30% after some big gains. And while I don't follow pre-war much, aren't plenty of T206s selling higher than ever at the moment?