Auctions prices in the latest Heritage Auction

brianp-beme · #1 05-16-2022, 12:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Casey2296

Same thing going on in high cost real estate, deals going for 150k over ask are now going for ask, but the ask price is still high and sellers are getting their price. I do think there was deals to be had like Ryan's Plows Cobb.

Out of curiosity I looked up the selling price of the Plow's Candy Cobb (great card by the way Ryan), and saw that it had sold for almost exactly 3x the amount the same exact card, in same holder, sold for 6 years ago (in fact exactly six years to the date...kinda cool).

In a normal world (which I mean the past in our hobby) that would be a great profit for the seller, but the market for BIG NAME HOF'ers has, as everyone and their doctor knows, gone nuts the last several years, so yes indeed I think this particular card came at a great bargain price.

Brian

Rhotchkiss · #2 05-16-2022, 04:58 AM

Brian, I agree with you. I by no means thought the plow�s Cobb went cheap. This is from VCP and shows psa 4 sales since 2006. They are all the one I bought except the top one which was a different psa 4. I think the card went for about the right amount in this market, and certainly represents a very strong increase in 5 years.

What�s most important to me on this chart is that the card has always increased in value (even is only slightly)

EddieP · #3 05-17-2022, 09:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

What’s most important to me on this chart is that the card has always increased in value (even is only slightly)

Interesting. I’m far from being an expert in this but it appears that this card is mimicking a T-Bill @ ~ 3.0 to 3.5% interest ( with the interest that you would otherwise earn in cash being factored into the price of the card).

Rhotchkiss · #4 05-17-2022, 11:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EddieP

Interesting. I�m far from being an expert in this but it appears that this card is mimicking a T-Bill @ ~ 3.0 to 3.5% interest ( with the interest that you would otherwise earn in cash being factored into the price of the card).

I am not sure what other investments the �return� can be compared to, but I do recognize that it is hardly a home run (going back to 2006) and that there are likely many other, more profitable investments. With cards, I am not going for the home run. Instead, I am going for preservation and safe growth; total bonus that I love cards, I get to hold and show the investment, and get to buy things I think are cool.

For me, the role that cards play is a slow and steady protector and grower of wealth that happens to be really fun and cool. This is why I collect/buy what I do - old and rare items of blue chip HOFers. And, even with this game plan, I sometimes hit home runs, which adds a little �alpha� to an otherwise safe allocation; I also miss sometimes on items but never huge.

If I wanted to day trade, I would buy the shinny stuff. If I wanted a higher return, then I would put my card money elsewhere or maybe into other cards. So, when I see a 15 year history of value increase on a rare Ty Cobb card, I hit the buy button.

Exhibitman · #5 05-17-2022, 03:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I am not sure what other investments the �return� can be compared to, but I do recognize that it is hardly a home run (going back to 2006) and that there are likely many other, more profitable investments. With cards, I am not going for the home run. Instead, I am going for preservation and safe growth; total bonus that I love cards, I get to hold and show the investment, and get to buy things I think are cool.

For me, the role that cards play is a slow and steady protector and grower of wealth that happens to be really fun and cool. This is why I collect/buy what I do - old and rare items of blue chip HOFers. And, even with this game plan, I sometimes hit home runs, which adds a little �alpha� to an otherwise safe allocation; I also miss sometimes on items but never huge.

If I wanted to day trade, I would buy the shinny stuff. If I wanted a higher return, then I would put my card money elsewhere or maybe into other cards. So, when I see a 15 year history of value increase on a rare Ty Cobb card, I hit the buy button.

Ditto, but substitute Ruth or Jackie Robinson, for me. Not a big Cobb fan, tho I have several. What's your favorite, Ryan? Mines the Colgan's. Love that Horner portrait.

Johnny630 · #6 05-17-2022, 03:27 PM

To me It’s a tale of two markets,

REA/Heritage/Goldin Equals
Wall Street Buyers/White Collar Buyers-inflation has zero affect on their spending habits, so that being said the high end market card are fine.

Private Sales BST/ or In Person at shows are blue collar Main Street buyers.
Inflation has definitely affected their spending habits, they’re not spending on middle and lower grade I’m sorry they’re just not spending as much.

Lorewalker · #7 05-17-2022, 03:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Johnny630

To me It�s a tale of two markets,

REA/Heritage/Goldin Equals
Wall Street Buyers/White Collar Buyers-inflation has zero affect on their spending habits, so that being said the high end market card are fine.

Private Sales BST/ or In Person at shows are blue collar Main Street buyers.
Inflation has definitely affected their spending habits, they�re not spending on middle and lower grade I�m sorry they�re just not spending as much.

100% accurate. The average collector has absolutely pulled back spending on cards. Might not be impacting people who focus on REA/HA type venues, even if they are not Wall Street types but demand overall has slowed down significantly. Harder to see it, now, in an auction that takes place every 3 months and takes place over a given night. Hearing more and more from guys who are selling on eBay that it is getting quiet.

BobC · #8 05-17-2022, 04:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Johnny630

To me It�s a tale of two markets,

REA/Heritage/Goldin Equals
Wall Street Buyers/White Collar Buyers-inflation has zero affect on their spending habits, so that being said the high end market card are fine.

Private Sales BST/ or In Person at shows are blue collar Main Street buyers.
Inflation has definitely affected their spending habits, they�re not spending on middle and lower grade I�m sorry they�re just not spending as much.

Where do you put the National, since that is a live, in-person, show?

Rhotchkiss · #9 05-17-2022, 04:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Ditto, but substitute Ruth or Jackie Robinson, for me. Not a big Cobb fan, tho I have several. What's your favorite, Ryan? Mines the Colgan's. Love that Horner portrait.

The collector in me likes the M131 Newsboys best bc they were given out only in 1911 and only to kids who delivered newspapers in Baltimore; plus, you could redeem the whole set for a $1. This set is so rare and it has all the cool E94 poses.
Aside from the HOFers (Cobb, Wagner, Young, Speaker, etc), I don’t think the set is the best investments though

robertsmithnocure · #10 05-16-2022, 08:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianp-beme

Out of curiosity I looked up the selling price of the Plow's Candy Cobb (great card by the way Ryan), and saw that it had sold for almost exactly 3x the amount the same exact card, in same holder, sold for 6 years ago (in fact exactly six years to the date...kinda cool).

In a normal world (which I mean the past in our hobby) that would be a great profit for the seller, but the market for BIG NAME HOF'ers has, as everyone and their doctor knows, gone nuts the last several years, so yes indeed I think this particular card came at a great bargain price.

Brian

I agree with Brian and Ryan also. The E300 Cobb is a great card, but it sold for about what I was expecting. It has the highest population of any of the E300 Plows cards and of the 8 PSA graded examples, there are 5 that are actually graded higher than this one. Also, and not they they always accurate, but Heritage’s estimate was $50K vs the $63K that it realized.

This is not to take anything away from the card at all, but I do not think that it is a good example of Heritage’s prices being soft.

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