Does The Stock Market Influence Your Vintage Purchases?

japhi · #1 05-19-2022, 04:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cardsagain74

Pre '86 hoops is not down 80% from the highs. And as I've mentioned before, '86 to '88 Fleer and modern basketball were the cards that had some of the most insane pandemic gains beforehand. So it's standard market action for those to have the biggest % drops once that mania subsides.

The comment earlier about so many more buyers becoming sellers lately doesn't make sense to me either. Prices for quality vintage have mostly held steady for a year now (obviously at levels that are still substantially higher than pre-pandemic times), and the BIN supply on ebay for vintage in general still only contains mostly overpriced items, and no more than were available when the recent boom was in full swing.

I'm not saying everything is currently amazing in the card world or assuming that things will stay this healthy. But some of you guys really have the most negative spin possible, especially for a marketplace that still looks strong so far (and has done incredible in just a two year stretch)

Sorry but the overall marketplace is not strong, the cards that trade the most are trending down. Lots of examples pre 86, and almost every modern BBK is way down save for the super rare stuff.

Case in point, Dr. J PSA9 RC peak 57k, last two sold under 20K. I follow hockey. Gretzky, Lemieux, Yzerman RC's all way off highs. Lemieux RC is a key card, top 10-20 in the hobby and is more then 50% off highs.

Broadly the market is getting crumpled, even if some segments and highly desirable cards are trading well. And IMO we have only started, based on the fact most don't seem to understand what is going on.....broadly.

And FWIW, I'm not a card investor so I'm neutral on this stuff. If anything I see this as highly positive, I don't want my hobby to be a speculators paradise. But it feels like 1990 to me, things will likely get much worse (or better depending on your perspective) from here on as trillions evaporates from financial markets.

Johnny630 · #2 05-19-2022, 04:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by japhi

Sorry but the overall marketplace is not strong, the cards that trade the most are trending down. Lots of examples pre 86, and almost every modern BBK is way down save for the super rare stuff.

Case in point, Dr. J PSA9 RC peak 57k, last two sold under 20K. I follow hockey. Gretzky, Lemieux, Yzerman RC's all way off highs. Lemieux RC is a key card, top 10-20 in the hobby and is more then 50% off highs.

Broadly the market is getting crumpled, even if some segments and highly desirable cards are trading well. And IMO we have only started, based on the fact most don't seem to understand what is going on.....broadly.

And FWIW, I'm not a card investor so I'm neutral on this stuff. If anything I see this as highly positive, I don't want my hobby to be a speculators paradise. But it feels like 1990 to me, things will likely get much worse (or better depending on your perspective) from here on as trillions evaporates from financial markets.

Another one is getting it +1

Only thing I will say is you can't use major auction houses as a gauge on the current state of collector grade cards in this market. That's all AH's are White Collar Buyers
EBAY BST IN PERSON SHOWS are mostly Blue Collar Collectors. Just my two cents

cardsagain74 · #3 06-04-2022, 04:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by japhi

Sorry but the overall marketplace is not strong, the cards that trade the most are trending down. Lots of examples pre 86, and almost every modern BBK is way down save for the super rare stuff.

Case in point, Dr. J PSA9 RC peak 57k, last two sold under 20K. I follow hockey. Gretzky, Lemieux, Yzerman RC's all way off highs. Lemieux RC is a key card, top 10-20 in the hobby and is more then 50% off highs.

Broadly the market is getting crumpled, even if some segments and highly desirable cards are trading well. And IMO we have only started, based on the fact most don't seem to understand what is going on.....broadly.

And FWIW, I'm not a card investor so I'm neutral on this stuff. If anything I see this as highly positive, I don't want my hobby to be a speculators paradise. But it feels like 1990 to me, things will likely get much worse (or better depending on your perspective) from here on as trillions evaporates from financial markets.

Yes a lot of key cards are 40-60% off their highs. My point was that 80% is quite an exaggeration for most. And comparing current levels to the top of a mania's very short-lived bubble prices is always going to make "down x% from the high" look awful, despite how it's the norm for what happens during and after any huge boom.

Like I mentioned before, except for late '80s hoops, the card market has stabilized pretty well for the last year (at price levels that average around 150-200% above where they were before the pandemic).

That is not "crumpled", and yes it is strong market action overall since the pandemic began.

The Lemieux rookie that you brought up (as an example of things supposedly falling apart in general) is actually a good snapshot of what's right in the marketplace. The OPC in PSA 7 was 200 before the pandemic, 1500 for a very short time during the early '21 peak, and has stayed at 700 for the past year. If you see that performance as a problem, then you're not being realistic about how well any market can usually do in the long run.

And again, I am not saying that everything will be fine from here. Things could collapse in the world of cards, Wall Street, or elsewhere (obviously a lot of economic risks out there at the moment). TBH, the current housing market reminds me of the irrational highs from around 2005. But it hasn't happened yet. And if someone can so easily prognosticate about that going forward, then more power to them!

Leon · #4 06-10-2022, 09:30 AM

So at what point does our hobby market correct, if it does? Maybe another 20% drop in the stock market? I have seen my savings go down a good bit lately.... fortunately I have very little, relative to other resources, in the market.
.

Johnny630 · #5 06-10-2022, 10:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leon

So at what point does our hobby market correct, if it does? Maybe another 20% drop in the stock market? I have seen my savings go down a good bit lately.... fortunately I have very little, relative to other resources, in the market.
.

Leon my take is this is we have two different markets in the vintage card industry

1. White Collar Big Ticket Items in REA, Memory Lane, Heritage ect. My belief is the bigger items in those auctions are controlled by white collar investors. Many of the cards I�ve noticed over the past two and a half years have played musical chairs from one house to the next in a relatively quick time frame 2-4 months.
To me these investors are less affected by inflation and a stock market downturn.

2. Blue Collar Middle and Lower Grade Private Collectors at In Person BST or direct eBay sales have corrected and will only go lower especially on the lower grade pieces. It�s my belief that the high inflation affecting the normal blue collar middle class guy is hindering their buying.

The Rick Get Richer, The Poor Get Poorer, And the Middle Class Pays May More and Buys Less and Less Discretionary items�

Exhibitman · #6 06-10-2022, 01:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Leon my take is this is we have two different markets in the vintage card industry

1. White Collar Big Ticket Items in REA, Memory Lane, Heritage ect. My belief is the bigger items in those auctions are controlled by white collar investors. Many of the cards I’ve noticed over the past two and a half years have played musical chairs from one house to the next in a relatively quick time frame 2-4 months.
To me these investors are less affected by inflation and a stock market downturn.

2. Blue Collar Middle and Lower Grade Private Collectors at In Person BST or direct eBay sales have corrected and will only go lower especially on the lower grade pieces. It’s my belief that the high inflation affecting the normal blue collar middle class guy is hindering their buying.

The Rick Get Richer, The Poor Get Poorer, And the Middle Class Pays May More and Buys Less and Less Discretionary items…

Actually, I found that in the recession the cheap stuff remained a steady seller. People need to feed their cardboard habits.

Yoda · #7 06-10-2022, 04:28 PM

Whether you are a collector, investor, dealer or speculator, I think it is human nature difficult to accept a loss on a card and many will hold on, hoping for a rebound and refusing to lower their prices.
Also, I feel there will be far less trading of high value modern, now so popular at shows. Nobody wants to be the last holding the bag.

Lorewalker · #8 06-10-2022, 06:18 PM

From an article posted today, Elon Musk recommends buying physical things in this environment. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elon-...180112580.html

As I posted earlier in this thread, the market was never more in peril (in recent times) than in March 2020 when the whole world shut down. DJIA dropped to 19K and took the rest of the year to come back. Things might not look great short term but look at what cards and other tangibles did when the DJIA took a massive hit. The DJIA is no where close to 19K however that is far from the only measure of a strong or weak economy.

And sure it does not feel good when the stock market is down, even if you have no money in it, because enough people do who start spending differently, but this too shall pass. If you are long cards and long the stock market you are gonna be just fine.

View Poll Results: Does the stock market influence your vintage card buying decisions?
Yes	70	22.73%
No	194	62.99%
Maybe	27	8.77%
Only if it gets worse	17	5.52%
Voters: 308. You may not vote on this poll

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