Ryan and run support

[Touch'EmAll]

When I originally posted Ryan had 5 games he lost that were decided by 1 run - that included all the good pitches, all the bad pitches, all the walks, all the wild pitches, all his fielding errors, all the stolen bases against him... all of it.

In fact, if anything, my calculation based on one run games favors Palmer more because the differential was actually more than 1 run - 4.79 runs vs. 3.56 runs - differential of 1.23 runs.

There may never have been a player with such disparity of opinion. Some folks think Ryan was a scrub, not even the best pitcher on his own team, barely worthy of Hall of Fame consideration, etc. Then you get folks who put him into the "Legendary" status, most dominant, owner of strikeout and no-hit records that may never fall, was the Million Dollar man.

So why does the public at large value Ryan's baseball card prices more than any other contemporary pitcher? Why does Ryan get the special documentary instead of Don Sutton, or Gaylord Perry, or Steve Carlton? Why do the Astros sign Ryan to a Million Dollars?

[Jim65]

Originally Posted by Touch'EmAll

When I originally posted Ryan had 5 games he lost that were decided by 1 run - that included all the good pitches, all the bad pitches, all the walks, all the wild pitches, all his fielding errors, all the stolen bases against him... all of it.

In fact, if anything, my calculation based on one run games favors Palmer more because the differential was actually more than 1 run - 4.79 runs vs. 3.56 runs - differential of 1.23 runs.

There may never have been a player with such disparity of opinion. Some folks think Ryan was a scrub, not even the best pitcher on his own team, barely worthy of Hall of Fame consideration, etc. Then you get folks who put him into the "Legendary" status, most dominant, owner of strikeout and no-hit records that may never fall, was the Million Dollar man.

So why does the public at large value Ryan's baseball card prices more than any other contemporary pitcher? Why does Ryan get the special documentary instead of Don Sutton, or Gaylord Perry, or Steve Carlton? Why do the Astros sign Ryan to a Million Dollars?

No one thinks Ryan was a scrub. Ryan is a first ballot HOFer and deservedly so. Some fans think he's a top 5 or 10 all-time pitcher, which he isn't. When some fans point out Ryan's faults, Ryan's fans take it as a personal insult. Saying he walked too many batters or should've won more games if he learned to pitch earlier in his career instead trying to blow every batter away, does not mean we are saying he's a scrub.

There is a huge fascination with Ryan and he has many diehard fans, thats why he gets a special documentary. Do you think getting a documentary makes him better than Steve Carlton?

I have no negative feelings about Nolan Ryan, I just do not believe he is an all-time great, thats not an insult.

[G1911]

Ryan was 12% better than the league average at his job: not giving up runs. He did this over 27 years. That is a phenomenal success, and I think he very much deserves his plaque.

I love baseball and it’s history. But I don’t understand the emotional connection that some people form with specific players, who are offended and indignant when math is used to evaluate their beloved. It is not insulting to Ryan to rank him by his statistical performance instead of his fame. Ryan and Koufax, off the top, are the only pitchers for which this seems to be a widespread belief.

[Jim65]

Originally Posted by G1911

Ryan was 12% better than the league average at his job: not giving up runs. He did this over 27 years. That is a phenomenal success,

I have to disagree with the word phenomenal. Ryans ERA+ of 112 is #302 all-time.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Jim65

I have to disagree with the word phenomenal. Ryans ERA+ of 112 is #302 all-time.

That he did it over the course of 27 years is phenomenal. No one else has done it. If he had been 12% over the league for 12 seasons, it would not be phenomenal.

[brian1961]

Guys, when I condemned Nolan Ryan's sourpuss critics over his preponderance of walks, I was referring to back in the day when Nolan was beginning to terrorize batters in the American League.

I still pound the table over the fact Nolan Ryan did not get a lot of run support. Sure, maybe the hardest luck pitcher was Greg Maddox. So what? The point of Nolan not getting good run support holds up smartly whether he was the second or 102nd hardest luck pitcher. Again, some of you go and say so and so had a worse time than Nolan. Nolan should have done this or that. You're probably right.

Be that as it may, for someone that was supposedly a lousy fielding pitcher, allowed lots of stolen bases, walked many a batter, he had enough outstanding stuff to allow the fewest hits per nine innings several times, and struck out a kazillion batters, and capture the imagination of baseball fans across the country, and continue doing so well into his 40s---no wonder collectors young and old were putting his rookie card at the top of their WANT LIST 30 years ago. I remember those years well, reading the stories in Sports Collectors Digest.

I favored Nolan Ryan way, way over Steve Carlton. I simply do not care if Lefty did this better, or that better, or isolated an isotope. It's the same argument as Willie Mays was way better, supposedly, than Mickey Mantle; therefore, Willie's cards should be worth more than Mickey's.

It'll never happen.

Why?

'Cause the far majority of fans prefer The Mick over Say Hey, just as the far majority of fans gravitate to The Ryan Express much, much more than Greg Maddux, Steve Carlton, or Jim Palmer.

It is what it is. --- Brian Powell

[G1911]

I agree it won't change any time soon and Ryan will continue to command higher prices than any other pitcher. I also think it's more reasonable to judge a player based on their actual performance instead of their fame and press clippings. Many of us like math more than narratives, but more of us clearly prefer narratives to math. One can like whoever they like and collect whoever they like; but the topic wasn't about the demand for his card prices but his statistical merit (unless we believe Cy Young's should ignore math and actual performance, which I don't think anyone seriously advocates).

[Jim65]

Originally Posted by G1911

That he did it over the course of 27 years is phenomenal. No one else has done it. If he had been 12% over the league for 12 seasons, it would not be phenomenal.

Pitchers who pitched almost as long as Ryan and had similar ERA+

Tommy John -26 years & 111 ERA+
Jim Kaat-25 years & 108 ERA+
Charlie Hough-25 years & 106 ERA+
Dennis Martinez-23 years & 106 ERA+

Its not phenomenal, its borderline HOF worthy. Before anyone misinterprets what I'm saying, I'm not saying Ryan is borderline HOF but his ERA+ is.

Just as a comparison
Tom Seaver-20 years & 127 ERA+

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Jim65

Pitchers who pitched almost as long as Ryan and had similar ERA+

Tommy John -26 years & 111 ERA+
Jim Kaat-25 years & 108 ERA+
Charlie Hough-25 years & 106 ERA+
Dennis Martinez-23 years & 106 ERA+

Its not phenomenal, its borderline HOF worthy. Before anyone misinterprets what I'm saying, I'm not saying Ryan is borderline HOF but his ERA+ is.

Being above average for a very long time produces a ton of value. I think it is phenomenal. It is extraordinary. It is oustanding. Tommy John and Jim Kaat had phenomenal careers too, though not as good as Ryan. I am unable to see a valid argument that Ryan did not have a phenomenal career. I'd love to hear it. I am on the 'anti-Ryan' side but this does not seem to me to be realistic and leans to far the other way. Ryan, Ripken, Jeter, there's a lot of guys I think are overrated but going the exact opposite direction is not any more accurate. 27 years, 5,386 innings, and he beat the league average by 12%. That's a hell of a phenomenal career.

Hough became a starting pitcher at age 34 and he and Martinez are not close in innings and actual playing time to Ryan, but that's alright.

EDIT: To reply to your edit, yes I agree Tom Seaver is better. I do not think Tom Seaver is the bench mark for phenomenal. I would say more than 10 or so pitchers in all of baseball history had phenomenal careers.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by Jim65

Pitchers who pitched almost as long as Ryan and had similar ERA+

Tommy John -26 years & 111 ERA+
Jim Kaat-25 years & 108 ERA+
Charlie Hough-25 years & 106 ERA+
Dennis Martinez-23 years & 106 ERA+

Its not phenomenal, its borderline HOF worthy. Before anyone misinterprets what I'm saying, I'm not saying Ryan is borderline HOF but his ERA+ is.

Just as a comparison
Tom Seaver-20 years & 127 ERA+

You list guys who had the years, but nowhere near the innings pitched.