How many fake autographs out there?

Fuddjcal · #1 06-08-2022, 01:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kaneen

I'm sorry, but that is a baseless, unfounded, and quite absurd statement.

Athletes spend an astounding amount of time signing their names every single day. As an "in person" autograph hound for over 35 years, I personally stood outside hotels, stadiums, golf courses, fan events, etc. and literally got thousands of signatures from athletes every year...and there were 15 or 20 guys just like me in my primary collecting venue every single day. When you extrapolate that to every major league city in the country (and I was in one of the smallest markets in Cincy), plus every minor league stadium, plus every PGA event, and on and on I could go, there are more authentically signed items than you could ever imagine in existence.

In addition, MANY former players are on a perpetual autograph signing tour through life. I have personally been in the back room at autograph shows like the National. If you have never seen it, it is literally set up like a large warehouse production with thousands upon thousands of items for the signing guests to sign for wholesale dealers throughout the country before and after their public 2 hour appearance. Many of them sit in that back room being fed a continual assembly line of item after item for the entire day (or multiple days). I'm not exagerating when I say it looks like a mountain of items, stacked on table after table. And this goes on all throughout the year, non-stop. The number of private signings, and players charging fees to sign items through the mail...there is a continual glut of authentically signed material pouring into the marketplace every day.

Then there are the card companies...ever notice the numbering on some of the "limited" autographed cards inserted in packs? Sometimes it's in the thousands. Someone above mentioned some of these showing up having been faked...these are rare, few and far between exceptions. (But these miniscule instances grab headlines and therefore become myth-building fodder for the masses.)

And we have the major companies like Fanatics, Tristar, formerly Steiners and on and on who have these guys signing their arms off to keep the product coming...I'm getting annoyed just having to type this stuff just to dispel the asinine "estimates" I see some people just randomly throwing out there. My God...if Pete Rose hasn't himself signed his name 5 million times (at least!) in his life alone I would be shocked.

Are there fake autographs in the market? Absolutely...plenty of them.
Do some people get taken by fraudsters every day? Yes
Do major TPA's mistakenly authenticate forgeries? Yes, it does happen, but this represents a very small percentage of their work... it's the exception and not the rule.
Are 90 to 95% of all autographs in the marketplace fake? If you believe this to be true, I do believe there are billows of smoke blowing out your rectum.

(Disclaimer - While this reply was typed citing Chuck's quote, it is not intended personally toward him...It is a reaction to all of the ludicrous, unfounded statements and percentages being thrown around in this thread as though they are fact.)

search the #1 most searched autograph and report back to me, LOL

"Mantle, Mickey", Then Jordan, Michael, Jeter, Derek...Koufax, Sandy. Trout trout pretty little trout. One more splash and come right out. 99% FORGERIES. Try "Autograph cuts" 99.9 % FORGERIES. I'd rather have cold cuts from San Carlos Deli. No chance of fake Nitrates.

Almost as absurd as my statement 3 years ago that baseball cards is a "billion dollar fraud." Members thought I was nuts. Now most with just a sliver of a brain can clearly do the math. It's a multi billion dollar fraud.

Deertick · #2 06-08-2022, 02:59 PM

Apparently the "reporter" made up talking to PSA , FBI, and UDA. This was 17 years ago. I'm sure it has gotten better, not worse. Right?

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/sign-of...ke-autographs/

"Only six percent of all autographed Beatles memorabilia is authentic, according to PSA/DNA Authentication Services, a California-based organization that examines collectibles. Only 24 percent of Marilyn Monroe and Elvis Presley signatures PSA/DNA has examined were genuine, and only 33 percent of more than 10,000 Woods and Michael Jordan autographs they scrutinized were real."

This is a long read, but interesting:

https://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/a...wFullText=true

ullmandds · #3 06-08-2022, 03:37 PM

In my opinion...too many fakes out there to ever invest/spend any serious money on them.

Kaneen · #4 06-08-2022, 08:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fuddjcal

search the #1 most searched autograph and report back to me, LOL

"Mantle, Mickey", Then Jordan, Michael, Jeter, Derek...Koufax, Sandy. Trout trout pretty little trout. One more splash and come right out. 99% FORGERIES. Try "Autograph cuts" 99.9 % FORGERIES. I'd rather have cold cuts from San Carlos Deli. No chance of fake Nitrates.

So now it's "99% and 99.9% FORGERIES"...I suggest you don't stand near a smoke alarm. Every one of those Last Name, First Name guys you mentioned have tons of forged autographs in the marketplace. They also all signed their arms off for many, many years. There are tons of legitimate authentic signatures available as well (even on eBay). Your percentage figure is absurd, and you are making a case for yourself that you may indeed be nuts...no need to just rely on the members here just thinking you are.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fuddjcal

Almost as absurd as my statement 3 years ago that baseball cards is a "billion dollar fraud." Members thought I was nuts. Now most with just a sliver of a brain can clearly do the math. It's a multi billion dollar fraud.

If you truly believe that that's all it is, then why are you here day after day participating? Are you nuts?

Chuck, I don't disagree with you that there are large numbers of fraudulent components within this hobby/industry...I just also happen to believe (know for a fact) that there are large numbers of legitimate, honest, well-intentioned components in this hobby/industry. I don't assert that you are nuts. (I don't know you and can't make that judgement.) I do assert that the hyperbolic numbers you are spouting are completely nuts. And I'm guessing you already know this.

sreader3 · #5 06-08-2022, 10:00 PM

I think it is beyond dispute that the higher priced the auto, the more likely it is to be a fake. So, in the case of 72 Topps baseball, if it is a Clemente or Munson, the chances that it is a fake are extremely high — well over 50% (perhaps 90% or more). But those are the exceptions. If we are talking about Fred Scherman or Tom Burgmeier, or even Rollie Fingers (HOF) or Bert Blyleven (HOF), almost all of the autos on eBay are good (and there are a lot of them available). I’ll stick with 5% bad for commons and 10-15% bad for Hall of Famers averaged out—although it may be somewhat higher.

Republicaninmass · #6 06-09-2022, 10:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kaneen

If you truly believe that that's all it is, then why are you here day after day participating? Are you nuts?

.

MULTI BILLIONS!!!

"The GMV, or gross merchandise value, of cards sold on the platform totals over $2 billion so far this year, roughly $1 billion in each quarter. The number represents a 175% increase from the same six month period in 2020. " every sale was a fraud!

Fuddjcal · #7 06-09-2022, 04:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

MULTI BILLIONS!!!

"The GMV, or gross merchandise value, of cards sold on the platform totals over $2 billion so far this year, roughly $1 billion in each quarter. The number represents a 175% increase from the same six month period in 2020. " every sale was a fraud!

LOL,

Yes Multi Billions, Autographs and cards Multi Billion dollar frauds, both of them. And yes, I'm nuts but not stoopid

gonefishin · #8 06-13-2022, 01:34 PM

I've collected autographs for quite a while. There is, no doubt, a lot of fake autographs. It would be hard to place a percentage of fake vs authentic autographs. I find that if you look beyond an autographed card, and look at items from the 50's and prior, there is a much higher percentage of authentic autographs than fakes. I try to put all the pieces in perspective when I buy an item. If it's a group of items let's say from the 50's, and there is an autographed score card that contains the autograph of Warren Spahn and other autographs from the Braves - and it passes the "sniff" test (a real signature, compares with other known examples you have, etc.) - then it probably is the real deal. I try to take everything in the group into consideration; other items from the period such as cards, letters, pennants, etc. When I do this, and send the item to PSA it is ALMOST 100% authentic.

If someone buys an autographed ball that was made AFTER the player that supposedly signed it was deceased - SHAME ON BOTH THE BUYER AND THE SELLER! The buyer made a very uneducated purchase and the seller committed a crime (if he knew it was fake).

I do think that PSA, JSA, etc. sometimes take the easy way out by stating a particular autograph was "Secretarial". That's kind of like grading a card an 8 and then adding "MC". The autograph is real but it's "Secretarial" and the card is an 8 but it's Miscut. Crazy stuff.

homerunhitter · #9 06-26-2022, 12:09 PM

Why even collect autographs at this point?

gonefishin · #10 06-26-2022, 12:50 PM

I enjoy collecting them because it is something that has a direct link to the player and the game. Yes, there's a lot fake stuff out there from crooks. Yes, it crazy that players like Mike Schmidt charge a small fortune for their autograph.

The vintage stuff is cool to collect when you collect something, such as a letter, that contains the players thoughts, etc. Also, there are still authentic autographs out there - Warren Spahn for example (debatable but probably the best left handed pitcher to ever play the game; most wins by a lefty, 4th on the all time wins list, etc.) - that are still quite affordable. I didn't really start out collecting autographs, just kind of got into it while collecting cards. Now I really enjoy it. You know the saying "Try it, you might like it".

Hankphenom · #11 04-02-2023, 08:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by homerunhitter

Why even collect autographs at this point?

Maybe because it's a fun hobby and if you're smart about it, you will minimize the forged examples in your collection. I'm guessing that, by and large, knowledgeable collectors, like many on this forum, set the market for in-demand autographs, including those slabbed by the big boys, not those trying to peddle bad ones. You can bet that any that seem to "fall through the cracks" in major auctions and eBay, etc., and certainly any at shows presented for sale at a big discount, have been judged by that community to be suspect. So if you want to think you're getting a bargain by paying less than the current marketplace, fine, but then don't complain about all the forgeries in the hobby or do get out of it entirely. Do some digging to find out who among the TPAs seem to really know their stuff, and even better do a lot of homework and become an expert yourself like many here have done.

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