How much vintage is out there!?

raulus · #1 09-25-2022, 04:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by homerunhitter

It seems to me that there is so much topps vintage out there still! Just searching on eBay nets a ton of results for what I�m looking for. With all the stories about moms throwing away their sons vintage collections, there still seems like ALOT of topps vintage out there. In your opinion, how much Topps vintage is out there in the hobby? As there seems no shortage of it at all.

How vintage is vintage? Like 1950s to 1970s? Do you include the 80s and 90s?

mrreality68 · #2 09-25-2022, 04:20 PM

All generations seem to have heavy stock of vintage look at the 1933 Goudey cards one of the most popular sets and seems like endless supplies even the 4 Ruth cards from that set has a lot of population of each. Yet demand on the vintage seems to also be on the rise thus driving demand on that supply and thus prices keep going up

Kurri17 · #3 09-25-2022, 04:28 PM

Was speaking with someone on this topic recently, and I suggest this as a factor. The big boom of buying baseball cards started in the '50s. So, if a kid was born in '45, the entire decade of the '50s would have been the sweet spot for collecting for that kid. My point is that that kid born in '45 is now 77 years old, and that generation is going to be declining in numbers over the coming years. Perhaps there are a lot of stashes and collections out there that will see the light of day again due to the passing of those years. Not rocket science, just a sad fact.

isiahfan · #4 09-25-2022, 08:51 PM

Does Topps have a listing somewhere of their production for each year (not including Bowman) from 1952 on? I would think this would not be in their best interest...but also think someone....somewhere ....has this info and leaked it...but for every good leak...probably 10 false leaks to throw us off the scent.

bnorth · #5 09-25-2022, 09:02 PM

I remember in the 80s everyone thinking there was so much 60s and 70s stuff it would never be worth anything.

wdwfan · #6 09-26-2022, 11:52 AM

I was just told recently that the 1970s wouldn't even be worth anything. It's a crack addicts fix for vintage is what the guy told me meaning it's a cheaper option for someone wanting to get the vintage fix.

And to a point, it's true. I mean, you can get decent 1974 and 1975 commons for 10-20 cents apiece online. It's really sad to be honest. The stars go for more, sure. But the commons, not so muich.

Quote:

Originally Posted by bnorth

I remember in the 80s everyone thinking there was so much 60s and 70s stuff it would never be worth anything.

ALR-bishop · #7 09-26-2022, 01:37 PM

This won't answer OP's question but has some great info in it. See particularly around 806. But fascinating stuff throughout

https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=AwrF...pXBriKINyZJgw-

But....

https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=Awrg...E76S._Enoaeso-

G1911 · #8 09-25-2022, 09:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by isiahfan

Does Topps have a listing somewhere of their production for each year (not including Bowman) from 1952 on? I would think this would not be in their best interest...but also think someone....somewhere ....has this info and leaked it...but for every good leak...probably 10 false leaks to throw us off the scent.

It doesn�t exist, as far as I�m aware. For modern sets we can get pretty close to the figure, because of the pack odds for numbered inserts. They never come out perfect, and for sets with a retail component you have to do some extra extrapolation, but we can get pretty close to whatever the true exact number is. I�ve done this a few times.

Production is close double what it was a couple years ago.

ALR-bishop · #9 09-26-2022, 10:04 AM

Topps and Fleer were involved in some FTC proceedings in the 1960s involving Topps exclusive contacts to distribute player likenesses with confections or gum. The contracts did not preclude cards sold by others without candy or gum, or with other items ( like the 60 Leaf marbles or 63 Fleer cookies)

In those reported FTC proceedings there are production and sales figures for certain Topps and Fleer sets. (The 63 Fleer set had very poor sales)

I used to have cites to those cases but can’t find them at the moment. A search for Topps Fleer FTC Complaints would probably turn them up

Dave Hornish would be the best source for what other numbers from Topps may be available, but agree with G that apparently not much

toppcat · #10 09-26-2022, 02:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ALR-bishop

Topps and Fleer were involved in some FTC proceedings in the 1960s involving Topps exclusive contacts to distribute player likenesses with confections or gum. The contracts did not preclude cards sold by others without candy or gum, or with other items ( like the 60 Leaf marbles or 63 Fleer cookies)

In those reported FTC proceedings there are production and sales figures for certain Topps and Fleer sets. (The 63 Fleer set had very poor sales)

I used to have cites to those cases but can’t find them at the moment. A search for Topps Fleer FTC Complaints would probably turn them up

Dave Hornish would be the best source for what other numbers from Topps may be available, but agree with G that apparently not much

From the late 50's through the mid-70's Topps would state in various articles/interviews, etc., that 250,000 of each baseball card was produced. As for the accuracy of that, I think they just repeated the same press release or comment for 15 years. It may also just have referred to packs sold in stores, or, it was a made up figure.

I've tried to suss out production for a few sets but it's an inexact science and compounded (confounded) by Card Collectors Company getting what I estimate to be as much as 3-5% of the annual print run directly from Topps.

So with cards issued series by series, the 250K figure is meaningless unless it's an average. And if it's an average it's still mostly meaningless as we don't know comparative series amounts.

Topps also hit peak baseball card production (for the pre-1981 days) in 1959 IIRC which makes sense as I think the number of children as a % of overall population in the US peaked in 1959. Baby boom indeed!

Personally, I think they were producing more cards than they ever let on. This links to an estimate I did for 1952 Baseball production and also shows the FTC info Al references. I think they were making more than 250,000 of each lower series card in 1952 alone and they sold more than that from 1953-55 and then once 1956 rolled around they vastly increased their output. I doubt the true production figures will never be known until the time that the MLBPA got Marvin Miller involved (1968-69).

https://www.thetoppsarchives.com/202...bers-game.html

rats60 · #11 09-27-2022, 09:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by toppcat

From the late 50's through the mid-70's Topps would state in various articles/interviews, etc., that 250,000 of each baseball card was produced. As for the accuracy of that, I think they just repeated the same press release or comment for 15 years. It may also just have referred to packs sold in stores, or, it was a made up figure.

I've tried to suss out production for a few sets but it's an inexact science and compounded (confounded) by Card Collectors Company getting what I estimate to be as much as 3-5% of the annual print run directly from Topps.

So with cards issued series by series, the 250K figure is meaningless unless it's an average. And if it's an average it's still mostly meaningless as we don't know comparative series amounts.

Topps also hit peak baseball card production (for the pre-1981 days) in 1959 IIRC which makes sense as I think the number of children as a % of overall population in the US peaked in 1959. Baby boom indeed!

Personally, I think they were producing more cards than they ever let on. This links to an estimate I did for 1952 Baseball production and also shows the FTC info Al references. I think they were making more than 250,000 of each lower series card in 1952 alone and they sold more than that from 1953-55 and then once 1956 rolled around they vastly increased their output. I doubt the true production figures will never be known until the time that the MLBPA got Marvin Miller involved (1968-69).

https://www.thetoppsarchives.com/202...bers-game.html

I think the expansion of baseball west also inflated those numbers. I grew up in the Los Angeles area. When my brother and I were buying collections in the late 60s-early 70s, we got lots of cards from 1958-1968, but few from 1951-1957. I don't think Topps shipped much west before 1958. With the Dodgers and Giants in California, that opened up a large market for Topps.

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