Wainwright in the hall?

[todeen]

Originally Posted by ALR-bishop

Agree with above, and maybe not Molins either but what wonderful careers together and all with the same team.

Wow, negative against Molina? In my book I agree with statements on Waino. But I'd hope Yadi gets in - although he might not be first ballot. I'm looking at him on Jaws, and he is one of the top of this generation, with a resume a bit better than Buster Posey. He (42 WAR) and Posey (44 WAR) are very close in WAR. I know a lot of catchers don't make the HOF, but this would be a shame. Jorge Posada is comparable to both, but he was never better than Piazza or Ivan Rodriguez.

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[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by todeen

Wow, negative against Molina? In my book I agree with statements on Waino. But I'd hope Yadi gets in - although he might not be first ballot. I'm looking at him on Jaws, and he is one of the top of this generation, with a resume a bit better than Buster Posey. He (42 WAR) and Posey (44 WAR) are very close in WAR. I know a lot of catchers don't make the HOF, but this would be a shame. Jorge Posada is comparable to both, but he was never better than Piazza or Ivan Rodriguez.

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Love Posada. Under-rated offensively as a catcher. 5 Silver Sluggers at his position. Unfortunately, not a great reputation defensively...though he wasn't horrible. Just kind of mediocre. He was great at handling pitching staffs, even if he didn't have the greatest arm to gun down base runners.

Not a HOF'er...but as borderline as a catcher can get IMO.

[packs]

Posada's situation has always bothered me. He was a really great offensive catcher. He's 9th in career home runs at the position. He played at a time when only Pudge and Piazza were better than him (two players who had cheating rumors follow them during their careers).

It's a crime he was one and done on the ballot. I don't know that he was a HOFer but he was a lot better than 99.9% of all one and done players and deserved more respect.

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by packs

Posada's situation has always bothered me. He was a really great offensive catcher. He's 9th in career home runs at the position. He played at a time when only Pudge and Piazza were better than him (two players who had cheating rumors follow them during their careers).

It's a crime he was one and done on the ballot. I don't know that he was a HOFer but he was a lot better than 99.9% of all one and done players and deserved more respect.

Those Yankee teams were so great, because they had a lot of guys that were not quite HOF'ers, but pretty damn good when you put them on a team with a bunch of other not quite HOF'ers and actual HOF'ers. (Bernie, Petitte, Posada, O'Neill, Tino Martinez, Cone, Wells, etc..)

[packs]

Bernie was another guy who I feel doesn’t get the respect he has coming. He only survived two votes. His raw stats are there but I also think he had a you had to see him play aspect to him. Such a great player to watch every day. Not sure what the Hall saw in Baines that it doesn’t see in Bernie. Even Baines made it to six votes.

[G1911]

IP:
Halladay: 2,749.1
Wainwright: 2,562.2

Record:
Halladay 203-105
Wainwright 195-116

ERA+, ERA, FIP:
Halladay: 131, 3.38, 3.39
Wainwright: 119, 3.36, 3.44

K/9, BB/9, H/9:
Halladay: 6.9, 1.9, 8.7
Wainwright: 7.5, 2.4, 8.5

WAR:
Halladay: 64.2
Wainwright: 47.1

So WAR loves Halladay, but they are really very similar for a career and WAR has a whole lot of value judgements that are arbitrary. ERA+ prefers Halladay in context, everything else is very close. I don't think this comparison should be dismissed out of hand.

Do I think Wainwright is a HOFer? No.
Do I think Halladay should be a HOFer? Probably just misses, really pushing it.

[G1911]

As for Yadier, I don't expect catchers to perform as well as 1B but a negative OPS+ is rare for a HOFer. Those are usually the guys everyone considers a mistake. I can think of only one catcher elected to the hall mostly or entirely for his defense, and that's Ray Schalk, who is derided. There's probably one or more two more, as well as 1 or 2 mysteries as to why they were elected at all.

I'm not sure that it should be this way, that we should weigh the bat so heavily for catchers, shortstops, that we shouldn't have defense only or mostly guys. There's a SS or two, Schalk, Mazeroski (also lambasted), Brooks was glove first but hit some big counting stat milestones with the bat and was slightly over league average.

42 WAR over 19 years is really bad when it comes to the Hall. He has 2 seasons over a 3.2, and 4 seasons from 3-3.2. So pretty much all of his career he was 0-3 wins by their accounting, if one is a WAR ranker. That's giving him an offensive bonus simply for even existing as a catcher, and then another bonus for his fieldwork every year. His bat is worth almost nothing.

He's passed 2,000 hits, by playing for 19 years, which has value. Longevity is worth a lot. It's not typically HOF material in itself. That's the closest he comes to a meritous traditional stat.


Posada is underrated historically, but I think also pushing it. He's got the bat to squeak in but wasn't worth much behind the plate. Posey, I am sure will make it but I am not really supportive of. 1,500 hits for a player primarily being elected as a contact hitter (yes he's a good glove, good framer, and 19 home runs a year isn't bad at all for a catcher, but his primary selling point is contact hitting) is very weak. His career is just so brief it's hard to put him in for what he actually did.

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by G1911

IP:
Halladay: 2,749.1
Wainwright: 2,562.2

Record:
Halladay 203-105
Wainwright 195-116

ERA+, ERA, FIP:
Halladay: 131, 3.38, 3.39
Wainwright: 119, 3.36, 3.44

K/9, BB/9, H/9:
Halladay: 6.9, 1.9, 8.7
Wainwright: 7.5, 2.4, 8.5

WAR:
Halladay: 64.2
Wainwright: 47.1

So WAR loves Halladay, but they are really very similar for a career and WAR has a whole lot of value judgements that are arbitrary. ERA+ prefers Halladay in context, everything else is very close. I don't think this comparison should be dismissed out of hand.

Do I think Wainwright is a HOFer? No.
Do I think Halladay should be a HOFer? Probably just misses, really pushing it.

I think Halladay gets the pretty substantive WAR and ERA+ advantages because he compiled most of his stats against DH hitting AL East teams in AL East sized parks in a slightly more offensive era then Wainwright.

We saw his move from the Blue Jays to the Phillies, certainly didn't hurt his stats in the slightest, until things started catching up to him, his 3rd season in Philly.

Perception is also that Halladay was dominant for a nearly 9 year straight stretch of his career. Wainwright not so much. He had much more of a start and stop and start again type of career.

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by packs

Bernie was another guy who I feel doesn’t get the respect he has coming. He only survived two votes. His raw stats are there but I also think he had a you had to see him play aspect to him. Such a great player to watch every day. Not sure what the Hall saw in Baines that it doesn’t see in Bernie. Even Baines made it to six votes.

Bernie gets absolutely torched by his Defensive WAR evaluation. Like a lot of Yankees during that time period, he absolutely passed the eye test in defensively. Rarely made mistakes, but he didn't have much of an arm, and like Jeter, the metrics hated him, even when it looked like he was doing everything he was supposed to be doing out there.