Class of 2013 -- HOF prospects

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Mike D.

I agree on Machado and Arenado being well on the path. I mention both in my recent article on hitters on the HOF path.

I also agree on Cole...to me he's the poster child for just how hard it will be for a modern starting pitcher to make the Hall of Fame.

Will members of those cheating Astros teams be penalized by voters in the future?

[Mike D.]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

Will members of those cheating Astros teams be penalized by voters in the future?

My guess is somewhat, but not to the degree that PED users have been.

For example, Beltran will lose some votes when he comes up next year, but I think he eventually makes the hall. How quickly will be interesting to see...if he gets 50% of the vote next year, he'll be on a fast track. Less than that? It'll take a bit longer.

I mean, both fired managers were re-hired right after their suspension was up, so the game can't feel TOO strongly about the scandal. Heck, by losing the Mets managers role and not getting another one yet, you could argue that Beltran has been punished as much as anyone in the whole thing.

Beyond Beltran, Altuve and Correa may be on a Hall of Fame trajectory (if they age well). In the many years between now and when they appear on a HOF ballot, I imagine the outrage will continue to fade.

Of course, if there's one group that will hang onto slights, real or imagined, and who seem to revel in playing "morality police", it's baseball writers.

[Peter_Spaeth]

I'm not seeing Correa being on a HOF trajectory. WAR does like him though.

[G1911]

Machado is on track, but he has to age well. He needs several more high quality seasons to really meet the general thresholds.

Arenado's 3 HR titles and the first half of his career may be viewed with skepticism as a Rockie. How much remains to be seen, it was basically ignored for Larry Walker but has been held against Todd Helton, though his trajectory is improving rapidly now as the ballot shrinks. 3-4 more good years with St. Louis probably gets him queued.

Cole is on track but also has to age well, even with greatly reduced standards to reflect that Pitchers are no longer expected to play much.

None of these guys have accomplished enough to be elected solely for their peak. All need a few more years.

[Mike D.]

It will be interesting to see how the Hall of Fame standard for starting pitchers adapts over time. I would expect the answer to the the same way it always has...painfully slowly.

There are four active starters I'd say are pretty much HOF locks: Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, and to a lesser degree Zack Grienke.

After those guys...who's the next active SP who makes the HOF? Sale? deGrom? Cole? Of the three, I like deGrom's chances the best, but even those rely on some re-thinking of the HOF standard.

Beyond those three? Anyone's guess!

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Mike D.

It will be interesting to see how the Hall of Fame standard for starting pitchers adapts over time. I would expect the answer to the the same way it always has...painfully slowly.

There are four active starters I'd say are pretty much HOF locks: Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, and to a lesser degree Zack Grienke.

After those guys...who's the next active SP who makes the HOF? Sale? deGrom? Cole? Of the three, I like deGrom's chances the best, but even those rely on some re-thinking of the HOF standard.

Beyond those three? Anyone's guess!

I think these 4 would make the Hall if they retired tomorrow and never pitched again. They are shoe in's.

Sale, DeGrom, Cole are all possible but all have played very little even by the reduced standards of now. Sale has barely played since 2019 and has lost most of his early 30's. Degroom has pitched less than 100 innings since 2019. He has 1,326 at age 34, which even now is extremely low. Cole is 2 years younger than Sale, he might have the best trajectory for the long term.

I don't think anyone else is a serious contender at this point.

[Mike D.]

Originally Posted by G1911

I don't think anyone else is a serious contender at this point.

I'm with you, although I'll put deGrom ahead of Cole on my list. When deGrom does pitch, he racks up the numbers. in 11 stars this year, he's got 1.5 WAR. In 15 last year he had an insane 4.4.

Any of them will need to get and stay healthy. A tall order for any pitcher in their 30's.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by G1911

Machado is on track, but he has to age well. He needs several more high quality seasons to really meet the general thresholds.

Arenado's 3 HR titles and the first half of his career may be viewed with skepticism as a Rockie. How much remains to be seen, it was basically ignored for Larry Walker but has been held against Todd Helton, though his trajectory is improving rapidly now as the ballot shrinks. 3-4 more good years with St. Louis probably gets him queued.

Cole is on track but also has to age well, even with greatly reduced standards to reflect that Pitchers are no longer expected to play much.

None of these guys have accomplished enough to be elected solely for their peak. All need a few more years.

Cole's stats are a little better than I thought, but his WAR is 33 at age 32, is that really on track? Kershaw is 75 at age 34.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Cole's stats are a little better than I thought, but his WAR is 33 at age 32, is that really on track? Kershaw is 75 at age 34.

The lack of innings will greatly lower this generations WAR, as it is a counting stat. Nobody is going on track to get 75. They're going to either not elect people, or switch to rate metrics.

[todeen]

Originally Posted by G1911

I think these 4 would make the Hall if they retired tomorrow and never pitched again. They are shoe in's.

Sale, DeGrom, Cole are all possible but all have played very little even by the reduced standards of now. Sale has barely played since 2019 and has lost most of his early 30's. Degroom has pitched less than 100 innings since 2019. He has 1,326 at age 34, which even now is extremely low. Cole is 2 years younger than Sale, he might have the best trajectory for the long term.

I don't think anyone else is a serious contender at this point.

Originally Posted by G1911

The lack of innings will greatly lower this generations WAR, as it is a counting stat. Nobody is going on track to get 75. They're going to either not elect people, or switch to rate metrics.

Felix Hernandez would benefit from adjusting our perceptions of a starting pitcher. He played for absolutely stinky teams that ruined some of his counting stats. He should have had one more Cy Young at least. If he doesn't get elected, I'm not sure deGrom will get elected.

https://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/...er-of-all-time

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