Cooperstown needs to terminate relationship with the writers

Mike D. · #1 10-08-2022, 09:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by G1911

It really varies by what we mean precisely with imprecise words. I would consider "lowering the standard" to be guys who are near the bottom of their positions AND shouldn't be in, not necessarily the absolute worst at their position. A player who is below the average is not a bad selection; half the hall will be below average. I think the key is one of the worst at their position in and does not pass a deeper test is a good general standard. There are more I would not have voted for, but I don't see as being poor choices, just difference preferences others have to weigh certain things more than I weigh them.

I would think that by definition, anything that "lowers the standard" is below the average. That being said, I agree with you that doesn't mean that a player below the average shouldn't get elected, just that their election would technically "lower the standard".

Of course, I'm a big advocate for looking at median, not average, when looking at HOF rankings, especially by WAR. Look at WAR by CFers...the "average WAR" of the 19 Hall of Fame CF is 71.6. BUT, there are only seven CF above that, 6 of who are in the HOF (Trout is the other). The median is probably closer to 60, so players above that would be those we should at least consider. There are 16 CF with over 60 WAR, 10 of who are in the HOF.

The average is high because of crazy scores for Mays, Cobb, Speaker and Mantle. Also, I use BBR WAR. If you prefer Fangraphs, more power to you.

G1911 · #2 10-08-2022, 11:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike D.

I would think that by definition, anything that "lowers the standard" is below the average. That being said, I agree with you that doesn't mean that a player below the average shouldn't get elected, just that their election would technically "lower the standard".

Of course, I'm a big advocate for looking at median, not average, when looking at HOF rankings, especially by WAR. Look at WAR by CFers...the "average WAR" of the 19 Hall of Fame CF is 71.6. BUT, there are only seven CF above that, 6 of who are in the HOF (Trout is the other). The median is probably closer to 60, so players above that would be those we should at least consider. There are 16 CF with over 60 WAR, 10 of who are in the HOF.

The average is high because of crazy scores for Mays, Cobb, Speaker and Mantle. Also, I use BBR WAR. If you prefer Fangraphs, more power to you.

I think we need a tighter definition for lowering the standard, otherwise it�s simply inevitable. After the first year, the standard will lower, as the Hall expands. I think the more reasonable thing is to have it expand to the best players not in, instead of what looks from afar like committees throwing darts randomly and looks up close like them electing their friends.

A player 5% below the median is a deserving hall of gamer and not a poor choice. It may lower the statistical median slightly, but it doesn�t lower the standard for election, as those players almost always make it and always have.

Mike D. · #3 10-08-2022, 02:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by G1911

I think we need a tighter definition for lowering the standard, otherwise it�s simply inevitable. After the first year, the standard will lower, as the Hall expands. I think the more reasonable thing is to have it expand to the best players not in, instead of what looks from afar like committees throwing darts randomly and looks up close like them electing their friends.

A player 5% below the median is a deserving hall of gamer and not a poor choice. It may lower the statistical median slightly, but it doesn�t lower the standard for election, as those players almost always make it and always have.

Of course, even saying "the HOF standard" assumes we can find an objective standard to all agree on, which feels like a fools errand.

But I don't disagree with any of this...being below the average or median isn't a disqualifier. I think of it more as if you're ABOVE the median or the average, there should be little argument for induction. That's not always the case.

What I don't like is the "if/then" argument. "If this guy, then why not that guy who's 5% worse?". I mean, if we did that with Baines, the Hall of Fame would need to about triple in size.

Mike D. · #4 10-08-2022, 03:02 PM

On the off chance this conversation has made you think "I'd sure like to read about 5,500 more words on the Hall of Fame", here's a couple articles I've published recently on the 2023 election:

An Early Preview Of The 2023 Baseball Hall Of Fame Election

Cardlines Guide Of The 2023 Baseball Hall Of Fame Returning Candidates And The Player Who Is Likely To Get In

I'm working on an article about the first-year candidates right now...coming soon.

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