$15,000 to spend on 1-5 cards...WWYD?

raulus · #1 10-21-2022, 11:10 PM

Here�s another hot take that I don�t think has been expressed yet, although Peter will correct me if I�m wrong:

If I were looking to INVEST in cardboard, I�m not sure that I would do it now.

If I wanted to buy for my own collection and enjoyment, then all day every day, to the extent that my budget allows. But the OP here seems focused on investment first and foremost.

To my mind, the runup in prices over the last two years has just been breathtaking, often as much as 500% or more, depending on the issue and the player. If I were investing right now, it�s hard to imagine that I�m not buying at or near the top if I�m investing today, particularly if I�m investing in vintage.

Now, I�m sure that the majority of the forum will heap scorn on this idea, and I fully respect that and expect nothing less than to be roundly condemned for my craven approach.

But for my money, if I�m investing strictly for a return, now is not the time that I would invest in cardboard.

Peter_Spaeth · #2 10-21-2022, 11:31 PM

People who try to time the market more often than not, if not usually, get it wrong. From DJIA 8000 to DJIA 20,000 I bet I got three emails a week telling me we were at a top and about to crash. In my humble opinion the time to invest, if you are so inclined, is when you have the funds. Don’t try to time. The vast majority of crystal balls don’t work.

raulus · #3 10-22-2022, 09:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

People who try to time the market more often than not, if not usually, get it wrong. From DJIA 8000 to DJIA 20,000 I bet I got three emails a week telling me we were at a top and about to crash. In my humble opinion the time to invest, if you are so inclined, is when you have the funds. Don’t try to time. The vast majority of crystal balls don’t work.

And all of the people who bought bitcoin at $67k thinking it would go straight to $1M wish they had waited instead and bought today at $19k.

We all have our opinions about the current market for cardboard and where it’s going over the next few years. If there was any doubt about my opinion, now you know it. And naturally, others will disagree, as is their God-given right.

Peter_Spaeth · #4 10-22-2022, 10:01 AM

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/eugene-...me-the-market/

https://www.chicagobooth.edu/review/...he-nobel-prize

Peter_Spaeth · #5 10-22-2022, 10:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by raulus

And all of the people who bought bitcoin at $67k thinking it would go straight to $1M wish they had waited instead and bought today at $19k.

We all have our opinions about the current market for cardboard and where it�s going over the next few years. If there was any doubt about my opinion, now you know it. And naturally, others will disagree, as is their God-given right.

Almost every time I bought a (for me) significant card, people I know and talk to regularly told me to wait until the price dropped because it had gone up so much recently. That would have worked out real well.

raulus · #6 10-22-2022, 10:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Almost every time I bought a (for me) significant card, people I know and talk to regularly told me to wait until the price dropped because it had gone up so much recently. That would have worked out real well.

In the face of withering and indisputable evidence, please consider my earlier comments to be withdrawn. Go nuts and buy everything you can while you still can. Cardboard only goes up!

Peter_Spaeth · #7 10-22-2022, 10:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by raulus

In the face of withering and indisputable evidence, please consider my earlier comments to be withdrawn. Go nuts and buy everything you can while you still can. Cardboard only goes up!

Now you're talking my friend.

To the moon, Alice. And meanwhile, you wait patiently because the crash is surely coming and you surely can time it perfectly.

raulus · #8 10-22-2022, 10:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Now you're talking my friend.

To the moon, Alice. And meanwhile, you wait patiently because the crash is surely coming and you surely can time it perfectly.

To infinity and beyond!!

In all seriousness, I�m not buying cardboard strictly to invest. If I happen to make some money, then all the better, but my personal enjoyment and the fun of collecting is as important if not more so than any return on my investment. Disclaimer: this statement is not intended to preclude my ability to assert my status as an investor for tax purposes�

And when cardboard prices are incredibly high, then I have other priorities in my life that bring me joy that I can allocate resources to. For the last 24 months, I�ve been focused on other priorities, while continuing to add to my cardboard collection at the margins, for pieces that I�m feeling I can get at a price that works for me.

And if prices only go up from here, that�s cool too. I�m happy to sit on my collection and just let it ride, without adding to it. Heck, if it goes up another 500%, maybe I�ll even sell, just to put my money where my mouth is.

raulus · #9 10-22-2022, 10:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Now you're talking my friend.

To the moon, Alice. And meanwhile, you wait patiently because the crash is surely coming and you surely can time it perfectly.

And another Buffett quote, since he�s the man:

�Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.�

To my mind, it�s less about timing for jumping in and out of the cardboard market, and more about relative resource allocation. Allocate more when the market is down, and less when the market is triple the all-time high.

drmondobueno · #10 10-22-2022, 10:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

People who try to time the market more often than not, if not usually, get it wrong. From DJIA 8000 to DJIA 20,000 I bet I got three emails a week telling me we were at a top and about to crash. In my humble opinion the time to invest, if you are so inclined, is when you have the funds. Don�t try to time. The vast majority of crystal balls don�t work.

Agree with Peter. There is a saying well known by those investing in the stock market : Avoid catching a falling knife. Seems to me various markets are fluctuating, including gold coins, stocks, real estate, and employment. And baseball cards (but not all of everything!).

Think it through, do what you are comfortable with and what you like. Just my humble opinion.

Oh yeah, keep asking the Net54 guys questions. The dumb question is the one you do not ask and costs you...

Exhibitman · #11 10-22-2022, 11:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by raulus

Here�s another hot take that I don�t think has been expressed yet, although Peter will correct me if I�m wrong:

If I were looking to INVEST in cardboard, I�m not sure that I would do it now.

If I wanted to buy for my own collection and enjoyment, then all day every day, to the extent that my budget allows. But the OP here seems focused on investment first and foremost.

To my mind, the runup in prices over the last two years has just been breathtaking, often as much as 500% or more, depending on the issue and the player. If I were investing right now, it�s hard to imagine that I�m not buying at or near the top if I�m investing today, particularly if I�m investing in vintage.

Now, I�m sure that the majority of the forum will heap scorn on this idea, and I fully respect that and expect nothing less than to be roundly condemned for my craven approach.

But for my money, if I�m investing strictly for a return, now is not the time that I would invest in cardboard.

Yeah but:

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