“Blue Chip” Cards

[Rhotchkiss]

Yup, the big time CJs did terrible last night- Jackson, Matty, and Cobb. One would think it was the seller/forum, which may certainly have played a role; ebay is not the ideal place to sell those items at auction. But the super-sharp discount to recent sales is too significant for that to be the only reason. The CJs in Heritage will help inform whether last night’s prices are the result of the economy/state of the hobby, the selling forum, or both. I suspect it’s some of both.

Bright side is you know those items weren’t shilled…

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Yup, the big time CJs did terrible last night- Jackson, Matty, and Cobb. One would think it was the seller/forum, which may certainly have played a role; ebay is not the ideal place to sell those items at auction. But the super-sharp discount to recent sales is too significant for that to be the only reason. The CJs in Heritage will help inform whether last night’s prices are the result of the economy/state of the hobby, the selling forum, or both. I suspect it’s some of both.

Bright side is you know those items weren’t shilled…

+1 agreed shocked by the eBay prices last night. Someone got really lucky on those cards.
We will know better in 16 days with Heritage
The suspense

[sb1]

The number of heavy hitters that peruse ebay looking for cards like these is negligible.

I would be willing to bet you most of these pop up for auction again on another venue.

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Yup, the big time CJs did terrible last night- Jackson, Matty, and Cobb. One would think it was the seller/forum, which may certainly have played a role; ebay is not the ideal place to sell those items at auction. But the super-sharp discount to recent sales is too significant for that to be the only reason. The CJs in Heritage will help inform whether last night’s prices are the result of the economy/state of the hobby, the selling forum, or both. I suspect it’s some of both.

Bright side is you know those items weren’t shilled…

[Johnny630]

I believe with the new US Stock Market Bull Run beginning many of these blue chips are gonna sell higher and higher in this year's fall and next spring's major auctions to come, REA, MH, ML, And Heritage.

[3-2-count]

I'm going to play devils advocate here on the trio of 1914 CJ's which ended last night on Ebay.

Since Ebay does not charge a buyers premium, if factoring in the 20% juice that would have been added on top of these prices if sold through an AH these actually weren't that far off.

The Psa 5 Jax from last night if a 20% BP were added would have been $126,120.00

The last Psa 5 Jax which sold for $240,000.00 was far superior to this example and was centered which many pay way up for these days. Now we can debate if it was $100K+ nicer, but it was nicer nonetheless. Prior to this $240K spike the last sell for a Psa 5 Jax was $116,400 on 8/8/21.

The Psa 4 Cobb from last night if a 20% BP were added would have been $59,721.60.

The last Psa 4 Cobb which sold (this exact card actually) ended at $58,800.00 on 8/15/21.

The Sgc 2 Matty from last night if a 20% BP were added would have been $61,920.00.

The last Sgc 2 Matty which sold (this exact card actually) ended at $64,156.40 on 8/28/21.

Just my two cents

[jsfriedm]

I was watching the PSA 7 1914 CJ Alexander. This copy sold at auction in 2018 for $20,800 at Heritage, the guy turned down an offer of 40K in February 2021 through the Heritage site, and last night it sold for a little over 27K.

[3-2-count]

Originally Posted by jsfriedm

I was watching the PSA 7 1914 CJ Alexander. This copy sold at auction in 2018 for $20,800 at Heritage, the guy turned down an offer of 40K in February 2021 through the Heritage site, and last night it sold for a little over 27K.

That guy should have taken that $40K offer!

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by jsfriedm

I was watching the PSA 7 1914 CJ Alexander. This copy sold at auction in 2018 for $20,800 at Heritage, the guy turned down an offer of 40K in February 2021 through the Heritage site, and last night it sold for a little over 27K.

Almost all the CJs other than those 3 biggies did pretty well last. I think Scott is right that few people looking to buy a 1914 CJ Jax, Matty, Cobb, look to eBay. Many on this board, including me, in that thread polling where you get your cards, indicate that they rarely use eBay for acquisitions. That said, it may also be the economy. We will know more in a few weeks when heritage closes.

As an aside, the 1.5 Jax in Heritage has better eye appeal than the 5 that sold last night.

[babraham]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

As an aside, the 1.5 Jax in Heritage has better eye appeal than the 5 that sold last night.

Agreed!

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by jsfriedm

I was watching the PSA 7 1914 CJ Alexander. This copy sold at auction in 2018 for $20,800 at Heritage, the guy turned down an offer of 40K in February 2021 through the Heritage site, and last night it sold for a little over 27K.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by 3-2-count

I'm going to play devils advocate here on the trio of 1914 CJ's which ended last night on Ebay.

Since Ebay does not charge a buyers premium, if factoring in the 20% juice that would have been added on top of these prices if sold through an AH these actually weren't that far off.

The Psa 5 Jax from last night if a 20% BP were added would have been $126,120.00

The last Psa 5 Jax which sold for $240,000.00 was far superior to this example and was centered which many pay way up for these days. Now we can debate if it was $100K+ nicer, but it was nicer nonetheless. Prior to this $240K spike the last sell for a Psa 5 Jax was $116,400 on 8/8/21.

The Psa 4 Cobb from last night if a 20% BP were added would have been $59,721.60.

The last Psa 4 Cobb which sold (this exact card actually) ended at $58,800.00 on 8/15/21.

The Sgc 2 Matty from last night if a 20% BP were added would have been $61,920.00.

The last Sgc 2 Matty which sold (this exact card actually) ended at $64,156.40 on 8/28/21.

Just my two cents

Are you suggesting bidders ignore the juice??!!

We just got done arguing this very point to death a month or two ago.

While I tend to agree with you, and your analysis here generally supports that theory, not everyone seems to concur with this math.

[3-2-count]

Originally Posted by raulus

Are you suggesting bidders ignore the juice??!!

We just got done arguing this very point to death a month or two ago.

While I tend to agree with you, and your analysis here generally supports that theory, not everyone seems to concur with this math.

I wasn't insinuating or stating that bidders ignore the AH juice. I simply implied that the ending price here on these 3 cards last night which did not include a BP since they were sold on Ebay's platform but would have if they'd been sold at auction through an AH, that price is the one that would have been captured on VCP, not the price from Ebay last night.

The difference is substantial.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by 3-2-count

I'm going to play devils advocate here on the trio of 1914 CJ's which ended last night on Ebay.

Since Ebay does not charge a buyers premium, if factoring in the 20% juice that would have been added on top of these prices if sold through an AH these actually weren't that far off.

The Psa 5 Jax from last night if a 20% BP were added would have been $126,120.00

The last Psa 5 Jax which sold for $240,000.00 was far superior to this example and was centered which many pay way up for these days. Now we can debate if it was $100K+ nicer, but it was nicer nonetheless. Prior to this $240K spike the last sell for a Psa 5 Jax was $116,400 on 8/8/21.

The Psa 4 Cobb from last night if a 20% BP were added would have been $59,721.60.

The last Psa 4 Cobb which sold (this exact card actually) ended at $58,800.00 on 8/15/21.

The Sgc 2 Matty from last night if a 20% BP were added would have been $61,920.00.

The last Sgc 2 Matty which sold (this exact card actually) ended at $64,156.40 on 8/28/21.

Just my two cents

Don't forget the sales tax that they have to pay. EBay is charging everyone sales tax unless they have a resale certificate. I believe that Heritage is the only AH that does that.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by rats60

Don't forget the sales tax that they have to pay. EBay is charging everyone sales tax unless they have a resale certificate. I believe that Heritage is the only AH that does that.

Every AH I bid in charges sales tax in Maryland. So for me, ebay and AHs are apples to apples as far as that goes.

And Tony, I respectfully disagree with your analysis. Nobody bidding on a 1914 CJ Jackson, Matty, or Cobb ignores/forgets the 20% Buyer's Premium.

The bottom line is those 3 cards shit the bed last night. Period, full stop.

Now we will see in a few weeks (when Heritage ends) whether it was Ebay/Probstein or the economy

[3-2-count]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Every AH
And Tony, I respectfully disagree with your analysis. Nobody bidding on a 1914 CJ Jackson, Matty, or Cobb ignores/forgets the 20% Buyer's Premium.

I wasn't stating that bidders ignore or forget the auction house BP.

I was only stating that the last price posted on pricing platforms such as VCP which so many reference as gospel include BP in their final price which is captured if sold through an AH. These cards last night didn't have that 20% buffer added on top of their final price.

That was all. Nothing more, nothing less.

[puckpaul]

Originally Posted by 3-2-count

I'm going to play devils advocate here on the trio of 1914 CJ's which ended last night on Ebay.

Since Ebay does not charge a buyers premium, if factoring in the 20% juice that would have been added on top of these prices if sold through an AH these actually weren't that far off.

The Psa 5 Jax from last night if a 20% BP were added would have been $126,120.00

The last Psa 5 Jax which sold for $240,000.00 was far superior to this example and was centered which many pay way up for these days. Now we can debate if it was $100K+ nicer, but it was nicer nonetheless. Prior to this $240K spike the last sell for a Psa 5 Jax was $116,400 on 8/8/21.

The Psa 4 Cobb from last night if a 20% BP were added would have been $59,721.60.

The last Psa 4 Cobb which sold (this exact card actually) ended at $58,800.00 on 8/15/21.

The Sgc 2 Matty from last night if a 20% BP were added would have been $61,920.00.

The last Sgc 2 Matty which sold (this exact card actually) ended at $64,156.40 on 8/28/21.

Just my two cents

Adding 20% makes no sense. I think those bidding $100-300k can figure out what they want to pay and do the math.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by puckpaul

Adding 20% makes no sense. I think those bidding $100-300k can figure out what they want to pay and do the math.

Sounds like a return to our earlier thread about the juice!

Congrats to 3-2 count for stirring it back up to top of mind for us.

[Smarti5051]

Did a Net54 member end up winning the CJ Jackson? I am dying to know what bid would have sniped it had I put one in at the last minute. I assumed the card would end up in the $145K+ range, especially when it hit $105K with a few hours left. So, I casually watched it Halloween night and checked back about 3 mins after it closed. If the buyer had a bid up to $140K, glad I saved him $25K. But, if he was bowing out at $108K, really sad I didn't take the auction more seriously. I am not positive I could have hit submit at $121K, but right now I feel remorse I didn't go for it.

[3-2-count]

Originally Posted by raulus

Sounds like a return to our earlier thread about the juice!

Congrats to 3-2 count for stirring it back up to top of mind for us.

You're welcome. Always glad to help!

[LincolnVT]

So, to Tony and Ryan’s points…I agree with both of you that eBay isn’t the best place to maximize sales for high end cards. If you apply this PSA 5 Jjax ebay sale last night to an auction scenario, it would have ended / hammer price at about 87k plus the juice…that would likely have looked pretty appealing to someone during extended bidding. I’m not a fan of auctions myself…but I do like to watch them. I consider the big three (Jackson, Cobb and Matty) 1914 CJs to be blue chip cards. I also feel like it is so tough to actually see the cards via the ebay photos…too much dependence on just going with the assigned grade…

[3-2-count]

I am totally in agreement that Ebay was not the best platform to offer these on.

It no doubt came into play and is reflected in their final hammer prices.

BP included or not

[Aaron Seefeldt]

A lot of people won’t bid unless they have consignments in play to offset having to write a big check (or PayPal, etc). I know a couple of fairly wealthy collectors that won’t get real aggressive on big ticket items unless they’re “trimming some fat” at the same time.

Also - as I have learned over 25 years of buying/selling - the more you spend on an item the more you can lose.

[lowpopper]

high grade is not always a criterion. anything that has wide trade value proven to acquire value steadily is blue chip

[Leon]

Nice looking, top tier HOF'ers, from mainstream sets are generally blue chip.

Ruth Cards

[Rhotchkiss]

BLUE chips

[pokerplyr80]

Originally Posted by 3-2-count

I'm going to play devils advocate here on the trio of 1914 CJ's which ended last night on Ebay.

Since Ebay does not charge a buyers premium, if factoring in the 20% juice that would have been added on top of these prices if sold through an AH these actually weren't that far off.

The Psa 5 Jax from last night if a 20% BP were added would have been $126,120.00

The last Psa 5 Jax which sold for $240,000.00 was far superior to this example and was centered which many pay way up for these days. Now we can debate if it was $100K+ nicer, but it was nicer nonetheless. Prior to this $240K spike the last sell for a Psa 5 Jax was $116,400 on 8/8/21.

The Psa 4 Cobb from last night if a 20% BP were added would have been $59,721.60.

The last Psa 4 Cobb which sold (this exact card actually) ended at $58,800.00 on 8/15/21.

The Sgc 2 Matty from last night if a 20% BP were added would have been $61,920.00.

The last Sgc 2 Matty which sold (this exact card actually) ended at $64,156.40 on 8/28/21.

Just my two cents

This is quite possibly the most ridiculous post I have ever read on this site. BP is already factored in to the bids people make on cards at this level, or levels much lower. The unfortunate part is you are correct, these cards easily went for 20% less than they should have, if not more. But not because of the lack of BP on ebay. I had no idea that these were even up. I'm sure others missed them as well. They ended on the wrong day, a Monday, on the wrong site, and the day before an election.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by pokerplyr80

This is quite possibly the most ridiculous post I have ever read on this site. BP is already factored in to the bids people make on cards at this level, or levels much lower. The unfortunate part is you are correct, these cards easily went for 20% less than they should have, if not more. But not because of the lack of BP on ebay. I had no idea that these were even up. I'm sure others missed them as well. They ended on the wrong day, a Monday, on the wrong site, and the day before an election.

I think the auction in question ended on Halloween, give or take a day, so maybe not the day before the election. Unless you voted early or by mail, in which case the election could have been any day in the last few weeks.

[vansaad]

Three Jackie blue chippers IMO.

214297216.jpg

jackie 52 Topps.jpg

jackie front.jpg

[G1911]

Originally Posted by pokerplyr80

This is quite possibly the most ridiculous post I have ever read on this site. BP is already factored in to the bids people make on cards at this level, or levels much lower. The unfortunate part is you are correct, these cards easily went for 20% less than they should have, if not more. But not because of the lack of BP on ebay. I had no idea that these were even up. I'm sure others missed them as well. They ended on the wrong day, a Monday, on the wrong site, and the day before an election.

Leaving out the wrong election claim, how does somebody not know about eBay and Probstein? It's very high visibility. Probstein is what, a top 2 or 3 seller? It's not some obscure listing at all.

My personal opinion is this means nothing; the card is a joke of a 5 with round corners and stains all over it. I'd get a 2 or 3 submitting it.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by G1911

Leaving out the wrong election claim, how does somebody not know about eBay and Probstein? It's very high visibility. Probstein is what, a top 2 or 3 seller? It's not some obscure listing at all.

My personal opinion is this means nothing; the card is a joke of a 5 with round corners and stains all over it. I'd get a 2 or 3 submitting it.

If I’m not mistaken, there were a half dozen pieces cited. Are there similar overgrading issues with the others?

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by pokerplyr80

This is quite possibly the most ridiculous post I have ever read on this site. BP is already factored in to the bids people make on cards at this level, or levels much lower. The unfortunate part is you are correct, these cards easily went for 20% less than they should have, if not more. But not because of the lack of BP on ebay. I had no idea that these were even up. I'm sure others missed them as well. They ended on the wrong day, a Monday, on the wrong site, and the day before an election.

Wow, people really stretching to find an answer to why they sold for less. You Forgot the full moon in the 7th house and Jupiter aligned with Mars. Literally one person missing it on Ebay, getting their rest to hit the ballot box.

Better just saying people finally arent bidding with probstein.


But yet again they still bid with pwcc in their own platfirm

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

I believe with the new US Stock Market Bull Run beginning many of these blue chips are gonna sell higher and higher in this year's fall and next spring's major auctions to come, REA, MH, ML, And Heritage.

Johnny is ever the optimist. Up, up, and away!!!

Naturally, I take the opposite tack and expect that we’re due for a major crash. Aaaaaaaaaany day now!

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by raulus

Johnny is ever the optimist. Up, up, and away!!!

Naturally, I take the opposite tack and expect that we’re due for a major crash. Aaaaaaaaaany day now!

Yes ! I think things are looking up !

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Yup, the big time CJs did terrible last night- Jackson, Matty, and Cobb. One would think it was the seller/forum, which may certainly have played a role; ebay is not the ideal place to sell those items at auction. But the super-sharp discount to recent sales is too significant for that to be the only reason. The CJs in Heritage will help inform whether last night’s prices are the result of the economy/state of the hobby, the selling forum, or both. I suspect it’s some of both.

Bright side is you know those items weren’t shilled…

Interesting... I heard a rumor that the set break was actually Probstein's cards, not a consignor.

Either way, I do think that break should have been done through an auction house.