Card Prices During Recessions

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by UKCardGuy

We all have collections of cards, that means that we have a natural bias about how we look at this. It's human nature to want to find information that aligns with what we want to hear. My gut tells me that there will be some substantial falls over the next few years. For the "investors" that joined the hobby in the last 5+ years, I can't help but think that when prices start to fall that they'll bail out. That'll only accelerate things. Then again....I'll be able to buy at cheaper prices. :-)

I agree. Those of us lucky enough (I won't say prescient enough) to have purchased the big boys 10+ years ago will be just fine regardless, even if we have to sell into a price drop. Which many of us might not have to do. Again, though, we aren't in a recession, it is inflation. I'd rather have hard assets that are not interest rate dependent than cash in an inflationary period. We will be in a recession some day for sure but when that is I don't know. if I did I wouldn't be worrying about card prices, I'd be placing bets, er, investing in futures.

Meanwhile, since we have financialized collecting, I wonder how many of us have serious chunks of buying cash set aside waiting for the dip in card prices? I have a big shopping list for then...someone please ring a bell or something when it happens.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Meanwhile, since we have financialized collecting, I wonder how many of us have serious chunks of buying cash set aside waiting for the dip in card prices? I have a big shopping list for then...someone please ring a bell or something when it happens.

Got to have lots of dry powder standing by for when the goons leave!

[obcbobd]

Short term, I don't see prices falling much. The guy who bought a Ruth for $10k as an investment is not going to sell it at a big loss. He will sit on the card.

Eventually, he, or his heirs, will sell for whatever they can get. But that may be a ways off.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by obcbobd

Short term, I don't see prices falling much. The guy who bought a Ruth for $10k as an investment is not going to sell it at a big loss. He will sit on the card.

Eventually, he, or his heirs, will sell for whatever they can get. But that may be a ways off.

While that's probably true for someone who just bought today, there are a lot of collections that have been held for a lot longer. Not all of those collectors will live forever. If I had to guess, the average age of collectors in the vintage space is not under 40, and there is likely to be a large contingent in the 60+ range.

Plus from what I hear from reports about card shows, the average collector isn't keeping themselves in tip top physical shape, which is often not an effective strategy for maximizing longevity.

[obcbobd]

Originally Posted by raulus

Plus from what I hear from reports about card shows, the average collector isn't keeping themselves in tip top physical shape, which is often not an effective strategy for maximizing longevity.

Hey, I resemble that remark

[UKCardGuy]

Originally Posted by obcbobd

Short term, I don't see prices falling much. The guy who bought a Ruth for $10k as an investment is not going to sell it at a big loss. He will sit on the card.

Eventually, he, or his heirs, will sell for whatever they can get. But that may be a ways off.

Yep they'll hold it until they need cash. As my father used to say...

"When does a recession become a depression? When you lose YOUR job."

[MailboxBaseball]

As the original poster, I just wanted to pop in and say thanks for all of the great responses.

Lots of bright folks here, and i appreciate everyone's insights.

I tend to agree with the majority. I think of it like this, certain cards seem to truly cross-over into the fine art and americana category. Like a 1933 goudey Ruth with bright colors, or a 52 Topps/53 Topps Mantle with great eye appeal.

Or a black history crossover like a 48 Leaf Robinson or a 52 Topps Robinson.

I think when you tap into these fine art quality and historically significant cards, they are certainly more recession-proof than say for example a really nice 1955 Topps Millie Mays in a PSA 3. While the Mays is a wonderful card, it may suffer a bit more of a drop during hard times. In my non-expert opinion.

Thanks again everyone