Hall of Fame Ballot Announced

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by G1911

Madlock and Hernandez have almost the same rate of doubles, homers, and runs. Madlock outslugged Hernandez by a few points for more TB per year. If these numbers make Madlock one dimensional at the plate, so was Hernandez. Madlock slightly wins in black ink, Hernandez wins grey ink by a wide margin (though neither is Hall territory). WAR suggests neither ever deserved an MVP. oWAR suggests Madlock was the better offensive player, 49.1 to 46.3. I am not sure I agree with that. Looking at their oWAR, their rates of counting stats per 162, their standard percentages BA/OBP/SLG they are very similar. Madlock grounded into 5 more double plays a year, but struck out a ton less. Both have a poor stealing record.

Hernandez led the league in Doubles, had 3 other top 5 finishes, and had 7 top 10 finishes in the NL. Madlock's best was 5th, and also tied for 9th once.

Hernandez led the league in Runs twice and had another top 5 finish. Madlock's highest was 8th which was his only top 10 finish.

Hernandez' 7 year peak WAR was 41.2. Madlock's was 28.4

[G1911]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

Hernandez led the league in Doubles, had 3 other top 5 finishes, and had 7 top 10 finishes in the NL. Madlock's best was 5th, and also tied for 9th once.

Hernandez led the league in Runs twice and had another top 5 finish. Madlock's highest was 8th which was his only top 10 finish.

Hernandez' 7 year peak WAR was 41.2. Madlock's was 28.4

Yes. That's why Hernandez has that big gap in grey ink. It is also a fact that their 162 game averages are very, very close in most things. We've covered almost all the traditional stats here, and they are close. They are very similar, in the same time. The data suggesting this is very strong.

If the argument is that Hernandez had the best season of either of them, I agree. The Hall is a career honor, and Keith's 13 black ink and 210th place are ink is not a credit though. That's a very, very difficult case to make, that his league lead finishes are hall worthy. A ton of other players would be worthy by it.

WAR likes Hernandez, even though it thinks Madlock was a better hitter. As I said, perhaps I underrate the value of 1B defense when 2B, SS, and C defense is not historically seen as a good Hall case. Look at their oWAR and you will see the massive value boosts from it. Keith gets 60.3, Madlock 38.2 even though Madlock gets more offensive WAR. WAR, the only metric by which Hernandez has a hall case, even thinks Madlock hit better. I have a hard time seeing seeing that massive gap ind defense value for a 1B, but I'm open to the argument that 1B defense is greatly underrated and actually does have such a huge outcome on winning.

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by G1911

I have a hard time seeing seeing that massive gap ind defense value for a 1B, but I'm open to the argument that 1B defense is greatly underrated and actually does have such a huge outcome on winning.

Clearly you haven't watched my daughter's little league softball games.

[JollyElm]

First base defense, you say? In a word...er...two words...Bill Buckner.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by G1911

Yes. That's why Hernandez has that big gap in grey ink. It is also a fact that their 162 game averages are very, very close in most things. We've covered almost all the traditional stats here, and they are close. They are very similar, in the same time. The data suggesting this is very strong.

If the argument is that Hernandez had the best season of either of them, I agree. The Hall is a career honor, and Keith's 13 black ink and 210th place are ink is not a credit though. That's a very, very difficult case to make, that his league lead finishes are hall worthy. A ton of other players would be worthy by it.

WAR likes Hernandez, even though it thinks Madlock was a better hitter. As I said, perhaps I underrate the value of 1B defense when 2B, SS, and C defense is not historically seen as a good Hall case. Look at their oWAR and you will see the massive value boosts from it. Keith gets 60.3, Madlock 38.2 even though Madlock gets more offensive WAR. WAR, the only metric by which Hernandez has a hall case, even thinks Madlock hit better. I have a hard time seeing seeing that massive gap in defense value for a 1B, but I'm open to the argument that 1B defense is greatly underrated and actually does have such a huge outcome on winning.

You are just focusing on Hernandez' weaknesses (and I readily admit they exist) and not seeing the total body of work. Hernandez has a good WAR, a strong WAR7 and therefore a strong JAWS. He has a lot of awards--11 Gold Gloves, 2 Silver Sluggers, 5x All Star and an MVP (and two other top 5 finishes). He was one of the best players on World Series teams in two different cities and had clutch postseason hits. He was arguably the best fielding first basemen ever. Some believe he revolutionized the position by taking away the bunt down the right field line (he was amazing at charging) and turning diving plays into 3-6-3 double plays.

And you are comparing him to Bill Madlock, someone whose only awards are 3x All Star and an All Star MVP? Madlock had no Gold Gloves, no silver sluggers and never had a top 5 MVP vote. His WAR, WAR7 and JAWS are weak. And because his career was shorter than Hernandez, Hernandez beats him in almost all counting stats.

You gotta come up with someone better than that.

You may not care about peak, 1st base Gold Gloves, or awards, but others do.

All I am saying is that Hernandez deserves another vote.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

You are just focusing on Hernandez' weaknesses (and I readily admit they exist) and not seeing the total body of work. Hernandez has a good WAR, a strong WAR7 and therefore a strong JAWS. He has a lot of awards--11 Gold Gloves, 2 Silver Sluggers, 5x All Star and an MVP (and two other top 5 finishes). He was one of the best players on World Series teams in two different cities and had clutch postseason hits. He was arguably the best fielding first basemen ever. Some believe he revolutionized the position by taking away the bunt down the right field line (he was amazing at charging) and turning diving plays into 3-6-3 double plays.

And you are comparing him to Bill Madlock, someone whose only awards are 3x All Star and an All Star MVP? Madlock had no Gold Gloves, no silver sluggers and never had a top 5 MVP vote. His WAR, WAR7 and JAWS are weak. And because his career was shorter than Hernandez, Hernandez beats him in almost all counting stats.

You gotta come up with someone better than that.

You may not care about peak, 1st base Gold Gloves, or awards, but others do.

All I am saying is that Hernandez deserves another vote.

Yes, Hernandez was very good. No one is disputing that. 2 silver sluggers, repeated as a credential several times now, is not a hall credential. Neither is 1B gold gloves, for any other player. An MVP, a batting title, these are nice seasonal achievements. Again not a Hall marker themselves, and if they are, Madlock's 4 batting titles are looking pretty great. Again, his black ink is very, very low. His league leads are not Hall level. Third time, I am happy to see the argument that first base defense really is as consequential as WAR claims it is for Hernandez. I'm not seeing it.

It is a fact that his statistics are very, very similar to Bill Madlock, a 4 time batting champion. Despite his shorter career WAR, the primary argument for Hernandez, thinks he was in fact a better hitter. This is not an insult to Hernandez. It is difficult to dispute that they are statistically very similar. Somethings are opinion, like whether Hernandez should be inducted, but other things are difficult to deny. They are close statistically. I don't need to "come up with someone better than that" (the comparison came from someone else, also) because this statement of fact is true.

If one cares about league leads, awards, and peak, none of which I have actually, in fact, dismissed, Hernandez does not meet the threshold, as pointed earlier. Again, his black ink is 13. 5 all stars, 2 silver sluggers, an MVP. These are not Hall inductee award resumes. An MVP is nice, many MVP winners don't get in. 2 silver sluggers? I really don't get why that one is repeated as a credential, that should be brushed under the rug to make a case for Hernandez. 5 All-Stars is not impressive at all for a HOFer.

All I'm saying is that I do not see a career, math based argument for Hernandez. He has one stat going for him at a close to hall level, and that stat seems highly dubious. I doubt 1B defense, in a world where every defensive hall of famer except Ozzie Smith is heavily criticized, is a big Hall resume accomplishment. I am happy to be corrected if any argument for it could ever be made.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by G1911

Yes, Hernandez was very good. No one is disputing that. 2 silver sluggers, repeated as a credential several times now, is not a hall credential. Neither is 1B gold gloves, for any other player. An MVP, a batting title, these are nice seasonal achievements. Again not a Hall marker themselves, and if they are, Madlock's 4 batting titles are looking pretty great. Again, his black ink is very, very low. His league leads are not Hall level. Third time, I am happy to see the argument that first base defense really is as consequential as WAR claims it is for Hernandez. I'm not seeing it.

It is a fact that his statistics are very, very similar to Bill Madlock, a 4 time batting champion. Despite his shorter career WAR, the primary argument for Hernandez, thinks he was in fact a better hitter. This is not an insult to Hernandez. It is difficult to dispute that they are statistically very similar. Somethings are opinion, like whether Hernandez should be inducted, but other things are difficult to deny. They are close statistically. I don't need to "come up with someone better than that" (the comparison came from someone else, also) because this statement of fact is true.

If one cares about league leads, awards, and peak, none of which I have actually, in fact, dismissed, Hernandez does not meet the threshold, as pointed earlier. Again, his black ink is 13. 5 all stars, 2 silver sluggers, an MVP. These are not Hall inductee award resumes. An MVP is nice, many MVP winners don't get in. 2 silver sluggers? I really don't get why that one is repeated as a credential, that should be brushed under the rug to make a case for Hernandez. 5 All-Stars is not impressive at all for a HOFer.

All I'm saying is that I do not see a career, math based argument for Hernandez. He has one stat going for him at a close to hall level, and that stat seems highly dubious. I doubt 1B defense, in a world where every defensive hall of famer except Ozzie Smith is heavily criticized, is a big Hall resume accomplishment. I am happy to be corrected if any argument for it could ever be made.

WAR, WAR7, JAWS are all math-based. But you reject them for Keith Hernandez.

And the Hall of Fame is not based on math. It is based on a lot of other things, like clutch hitting to help win World Series, awards, and being the best at your position in your era.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

WAR, WAR7, JAWS are all math-based. But you reject them for Keith Hernandez.

And the Hall of Fame is not based on math. It is based on a lot of other things, like clutch hitting to help win World Series, awards, and being the best at your position in your era.

Those are all the same stat, which I have very specifically said is his one stat at around hall level, several times. Again, for time number 4, I am open to a reasoned argument 1st base defense is actually hugely important and wins tons of games as WAR concludes for Hernandez, and that 1B defense should be a big factor.

As for the rejection of math argument, Hernandez was 1) worse in the playoffs than the regular season statistically, 2) already discussed several times, 2 silver sluggers, an MVP, 5 all-stars are simply not much of a Hall resume for any other player and 3) he was absolutely not the best 1B of his era, at all, and it would be rather silly to argue that he was better than Carew, Murray, and several others who partially overlapped for numerous seasons.

[cgjackson222]

Some Hernandez highlights: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wv5-3-nq97Q

[ejharrington]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

WAR, WAR7, JAWS are all math-based. But you reject them for Keith Hernandez.

And the Hall of Fame is not based on math. It is based on a lot of other things, like clutch hitting to help win World Series, awards, and being the best at your position in your era.

Keith is both the all time and single season record holder for game winning RBIs. He was clutch no doubt.

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by ejharrington

Keith is both the all time and single season record holder for game winning RBIs. He was clutch no doubt.

We'll just ignore that MLB only tracked the stat from 1980 to 1988.

[perezfan]

Originally Posted by ejharrington

Keith is both the all time and single season record holder for game winning RBIs. He was clutch no doubt.

Interesting. I did not realize the “GWRBI” statistic was only recorded between 1980-88. Then MLB subsequently did away with it, claiming it was too random and arbitrary...

https://www.baseball-reference.com/b..._run_batted_in

Too bad there’s not currently a better method to measure clutch hitting. The ability to get the late inning 2-out hit is what typically separates the winners from the losers.