Some of the mysteries and myths surrounding the most famous card in the hobby.

benjulmag · #1 11-28-2022, 05:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by G1911

Most cards have popped up this way. 90%+ of T cards we cannot trace the history of back to 1909-1911. I have over 15,000 T cards; only one batch of 50 of them can I trace the custody chain of to before 1940. None can I fully go back to 1909. Other early run uncut ATC material has appeared; with cards much rarer than the Wagner on them. Every single person with any real experience with this card in hand has concluded it is real. Is it possible all of these very experienced hobbyists have been fooled? Yes. Is it reasonable to just assume that this is so? No. Of course it is not. I am happy to believe they have been fooled, if there was any reasonable evidence to support that. But there is not; not one single tiny little bit. It is illogical and absurd to jump to extreme conclusions when there is not one single, tiny iota of evidence to support that leap.

The eye and testimonial evidence say it is an actual Wagner. On the other hand, there is.... well, absolutely nada. The 'original equipment in the 50's' conspiracy theory is especially over the top, but if one is to believe there is some other conspiracy here, either of master counterfeiters from decades ago (who apparently just stopped after a single Wagner and Plank that netted $25,000 in total?) or decades long and widespread hobby cover ups with dozens of participants, then a reasonable person should require some proof, some actual reason to believe it. To believe whatever thought occurs and strikes my fancy, even when other options are the ones supported by evidence, would be foolish.

It's a good question, I'm glad you brought it up, but if the result of that question is that we have some evidence that it is real and no evidence that it is not, well, that writs the answer of what it is reasonable to think. A rational person cannot reject actual evidence in favor of no evidence. When the question is one of actual fact, of history (the card either is or is not real; it's not an opinion like 'what is your favorite card?'), then I cannot fathom why we should abandon the principles of reason and logic that have guided western knowledge for the last 2,400 years in favor of gossip.

I would, truly and not sarcastically, love to see any evidence for this conspiracy theory. I know that you did not posit this as the truth when you brought it up, and said you were just relaying the story and that it was others who then stated as fact that it was a reprint, while being unable to provide any evidence.

More generally, I think Pat asked a great question; there are a lot of mysteries about this and those mysteries, if they could be resolved, would greatly aid genuine research into T card printing, distribution, and series and/or wave composition. I am not surprised the answers have mostly been evidence-free conspiracy theories and claims of 'research' that does not appear to actually exist and cannot be provided. It is disappointing though. Hobby knowledge would be a lot further along if people would step back from their narratives, apply some basic logic, and follow the evidence rather than just advocating for what they want to find as if it is the truth and using gossip, appeals to authority or expertise or their age, and tradition as a defense against having no evidence whatsoever for what they are insisting is the truth. That using an evidentiary basis is generally unpopular and controversial in a group of successful, intelligent people, well it's interesting.

Greg,

With all due respect, I think you might underestimate the ability of skilled counterfeiters to manufacture fakes that can pass THE MOST STRINGENT VISUAL TESTS, a lesson I learned the hard way. This card is not like any other T206 that has ever surfaced. It is a NrMt-Mt Wagner with NO PROVENANCE. Maybe to you the burden is on the prospective buyer to prove it is fake. But to me, the burden is on the seller to prove it is real, and with no provenance, the way to do it is with forensic testing. Or, to say it another way, you keep saying there is no evidence the card is not real. To my way of looking at it, the evidence that it is not real is not materially weaker than the evidence it is real. We really don't know for sure either way.

G1911 · #2 11-28-2022, 11:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by benjulmag

Greg,

With all due respect, I think you might underestimate the ability of skilled counterfeiters to manufacture fakes that can pass THE MOST STRINGENT VISUAL TESTS, a lesson I learned the hard way. This card is not like any other T206 that has ever surfaced. It is a NrMt-Mt Wagner with NO PROVENANCE. Maybe to you the burden is on the prospective buyer to prove it is fake. But to me, the burden is on the seller to prove it is real, and with no provenance, the way to do it is with forensic testing. Or, to say it another way, you keep saying there is no evidence the card is not real. To my way of looking at it, the evidence that it is not real is not materially weaker than the evidence it is real. We really don't know for sure either way.

I earlier stated my prediction that high quality fakes will eventually ruin the hobby, and I even outlined what I thought would need to be done. You and others are alleging a 40-70 year history of these amazing fake T cards already happening, but cannot show any evidence whatsoever; just a vague gossip theory with no names, no consistent timeframe, no evidence, none at all. Quite the cover up for $25,000! If I am underestimating this ability, please educate me. What is the evidence this actually happened even one single time? With all due respect, I think you are underestimating the importance of following the evidence, instead of jumping to whatever conclusion strikes your fancy.

How many T206 cards can we trace their histories back to 1909-1911? It�s a tiny, tiny percentage. I don�t believe there is more than maybe one or two Wagners we can trace all the way back, though I could be wrong, I am not one of the guys who has catalogued every known Wagner and followed them. This is how MOST of them have appeared, they get found. Should I just assume all of my t cards are fakes because I don�t have the full provenance history? Can you trace the provenance to the period for all your cards? Do you believe any you cannot are fake? Or this is an invented standard set only for this one card, designed to justify the conclusion since there is clearly no real evidence?

Again, like it or not, the evidence is not equal. We have the eye test and that everyone who has examined the card, which is a lot of knowledgeable people, is convinced it is genuine. I have never handled the card myself, and even if I had, would not appeal to my own authority. We have no evidence whatsoever, which I have repeatedly begged for, that it is fake. You can ignore the evidence and believe the conspiracy theory, that�s your right, but I can see no rational reason for me to suspend logic and the rules of evidence to subscribe to this theory of a card fraud conspiracy and the perfect crime when there is no evidence. May we be rational men. An evidentiary basis, that if we are to believe something there should be evidence for it, is not some new thing I have invented. It is the time honored western approach to knowledge, for over two millennia. If I ignored the evidence to just believe whatever conspiracy theory strikes my fancy, I would be a fool. The issue here is an issue of fact, of history. Evidence is not always perfect, but there�s not a tiny shred of it at all for this. Perhaps the evidence of eyes and ears, as they say, are wrong, but there needs to be some actual reason to jump to this conclusion. If I had conducted research this way I would have been laughed out of university.

Again, I am all ears and eagerly await the production of any evidence whatsoever, for this card fraud, for the allegedly-totally-real research showing it was not found in Florida but in NY, and for anything else. I would think there is a reason none of this has been produced. Because one is a conspiracy theory without a shred of evidence to be given, and the other was an untruth. I would love to be corrected by the production of any evidence. Any. Please!

Exhibitman · #3 11-28-2022, 11:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by benjulmag

It is a NrMt-Mt Wagner

No, it is not. It is a twice cut down piece of a scrap T206 Wagner that was knowingly encapsulated as nm-mt by PSA to launch their brand. There is not and never has been a nm-mt issued T206 Wagner discovered in the wild, only this Frankencard. Not only did Bill Mastro admit that he personally cut the sides of the card, but he also went to prison for concealing that information when he sold it. As evidence, a confession that sends the confessor to the can is about as hardcore as it gets.

That said, I think you are raising a question that is interesting but that will never be answered. Remember the context. This stuff was crap that only a handful of weirdos (I can say that since I am one of them since I was a kid) wanted. It wasn't an Old Master hanging in a royal collection. There is no catalog raissonne for cards. All we can judge is the physical evidence--the item itself. If we are lucky we occasionally get an item with impeccable provenance, like from an estate. Otherwise, it is conjecture and we will never know. For all we can say, Ray didn't want to say more because the source was an active one that he was plumbing for more cards. Remember how assiduously we all used to guard non-hobby sources in the bad old days? You didn't want your antique store source cleaned out by some other collector before you had a chance to do it.

steve B · #4 11-28-2022, 01:11 PM

I only have one T card I might be able to trace back.
And that's assuming I still have the auction reciept somewhere. (It was a heap card in an auction of what was supposedly an original collection that included a Wagner. )

I do think very convincing fakes could be made, but it would be very difficult to make one that would survive serious examination.

Even a great fake may not really succeed.

Back early -mid 80s I was hanging out at my LCS, and they handed me a 51 Mantle and just said be careful with this, it's not ours. ANs tell me what you think.
Very nice card, today would get a decently high grade, maybe 8? Maybe better.
But after a while I handed it back saying that it was really great looking, but also fake.
It had been to several other dealers, plus the local guys, and that was the opinion of everyone. A wonderful fake. Odd thing was, nobody could say why.

So either someone shopped a very very well done fake 51 Bowman around with no takers, or a lot of experienced dealers passed on an incredible card.

Lorewalker · #5 11-28-2022, 01:49 PM

The Wagner is obviously an important card but as has been alluded to by a few, at least, who back then paid attention to this stuff like we do now? I doubt many thought it was going to be important.

This example only became a NM-MT example in recent years, due to the trimming that Mastro did. Prior to that it was simply a Wagner that was in better shape than most but had an irregular cut which was apparent to everyone who owned or saw it, if I have followed this correctly. Not sure back in the day that makes it any more remarkable than one that was mangled.

If what Greg wrote is correct, that only a few Wagner's have their complete chain of ownership traced, then it is really not a big deal that this Wagner cannot be traced? In my opinion it does not make it any less suspect of being legit.

G1911 · #6 11-28-2022, 02:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

If what Greg wrote is correct, that only a few Wagner's have their complete chain of ownership traced, then it is really not a big deal that this Wagner cannot be traced? In my opinion it does not make it any less suspect of being legit.

We should be able too settle this, using a logical evidentiary basis.

Here's 47 known Wagners: https://t206resource.com/Wagner-Gallery.html

Which of these can anyone trace their history all the way back to where they were in 1909? What is our provenance documentation for these, if any, that we can?

Are all the others, or all 47 if none can be actually traced, fakes?

RCMcKenzie · #7 11-28-2022, 02:26 PM

The reason people are asking where the guy found it is because of the high grade. See the Black Swamp Find. There should be a quaint story behind the card's discovery. Flea market in the 1980's does not sound reasonable to me.

Lorewalker · #8 11-28-2022, 02:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RCMcKenzie

The reason people are asking where the guy found it is because of the high grade. See the Black Swamp Find. There should be a quaint story behind the card's discovery. Flea market in the 1980's does not sound reasonable to me.

I think the logical assumption is that the card did not exist as a single card much before Ray possessed it. It likely was cut off of a printer's scrap or a salesman sample. That could explain why Ray was vague. Not that he was vague because there was someone printing these. If they had printed them in the 1950s why have we not seen more of them? Seems like a lot of effort to do a one off.

And by the way, there are far too many collectors who think the BS find consists of counterfeit cards or at least that was their belief once the find was made public.

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