New and Shiny - Market Manipulation

[packs]

For a breaker to get marked cases the relationship would be breaker spends X money with the manufacturer, so the manufacturer tosses them a bone, right? And the way the breaker benefits from this is a wider audience competing for spots and bidding more for them on their channel, I guess.

But the costs per spot in breaks for products are more or less universal. A specific breaker isn't going to get more per spot for their break than someone else breaking the same product. Or at least that hasn't been my experience and I watch these breaks all the time.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by packs

For a breaker to get marked cases the relationship would be breaker spends X money with the manufacturer, so the manufacturer tosses them a bone, right? And the way the breaker benefits from this is a wider audience competing for spots and bidding more for them on their channel, I guess.

But the costs per spot in breaks for products are more or less universal. A specific breaker isn't going to get more per spot for their break than someone else breaking the same product. Or at least that hasn't been my experience and I watch these breaks all the time.

Or it’s just buddies giving the good stuff to buddies. Panini corporate might not be doing it as actual business practice and standard policy. That it’s happening seems mathematically undeniable, but the mechanics of the perpetrators doing the rigging aren’t known.

[packs]

Originally Posted by G1911

Or it’s just buddies giving the good stuff to buddies. Panini corporate might not be doing it as actual business practice and standard policy. That it’s happening seems mathematically undeniable, but the mechanics of the perpetrators doing the rigging aren’t known.

A situation like that I can buy into. But the idea that a manufacturer would have this built into their business as standard operating procedures is not.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by packs

A situation like that I can buy into. But the idea that a manufacturer would have this built into their business as standard operating procedures is not.

I’ve seen way too much incredibly shady stuff being done by corporations in my life to have any faith that they would be above this or smarter than this. If I had to wager though, buddies helping buddies is what I would bet is going on, but we don’t have direct evidence of the backend mechanics, just that the astounding hits certain breakers get is impossible to achieve naturally without being fed the true hit cases. Somebody in distribution for some reason is ensuring that the good stuff goes to certain people. Backyard being exhibit A here lately. We can see the fire, but who is starting it with what fire starting device we can’t see as of present.

[packs]

I wouldn't argue that idea.

But on the mathematics side of things; I've bought into enough breaks that it should be mathematical impossible for me to do as badly as I have (haha). But alas, reality is real.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by packs

I wouldn't argue that idea.

But on the mathematics side of things; I've bought into enough breaks that it should be mathematical impossible for me to do as badly as I have (haha). But alas, reality is real.

What are the odds of winning in a group break on average? I have only been in a couple vintage set breaks and the chances of winning or even breaking even in them seemed to be extremely low.

[packs]

Well it depends on product and what you’re looking to spend. Most of the modern breaks are randomized teams. So you bid to win the chance to either spin a wheel with all 30 teams on it or pick a card from a deck (these are the most common ways to draw). If you buy a spot early when there are the most teams left you usually pay the least and might hit the big team. If you wait till all the bad teams are weeded out the prices go up because there are less bad hits.

It’s always luck of the draw because it’s easy to have the best team and not hit. But if you’re willing to spend you can buy into something like a case break and have a decent shot at hitting something. Some sets have better checklists than others too. The Bowman 2022 Draft boxes that just came out sells for big dollars but has a higher number of good teams and good players than usual. A lot of breakers are doing pick your team drafts for those though and setting the price for a specific team because the boxes are so expensive.

Again, if you have the money to spend you can get into the higher priced divisional breaks too and increase your chances of hitting a player you want. You can buy the AL East, for example. For the super high end products it's usually a hit draft where the people buying in draw a number, say 1, and that means they either choose the first card from the box for themselves or get the first card pulled, depending on the break.

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by bnorth

What are the odds of winning in a group break on average? I have only been in a couple vintage set breaks and the chances of winning or even breaking even in them seemed to be extremely low.

Very very low. I have been in a bunch. Not impossible. First you need to pull an amazing card. Then you need BCG to give you a 9.5 at least. Not so easy. I've had some beautiful shiny cards that Beckett gave a 7.5.