Justifying a Big Purchase

[ClementeFanOh]

Hi Don- first, I admire your willingness to ask the question. If I read you correctly, you are sound financially and wish to buy the card in question perhaps as a bucket list item, or a sentimental favorite that happily is valuable as well. There are folks on net54 who consistently default to a resell value mentality that is clearly their prime mover. You aren’t one of them. Steve Nap makes a great point about regrets frequently coming because you don’t buy, rather than when you do. You sound squared away to me. Buy and enjoy! Heck, if you are willing to share in the future, I’d like to know what it is Trent King

[rand1com]

I would buy it if it is a card you really want and you can afford.

The downside is very small as others have mentioned if you ever need to cash it out for an emergency expense.

[raulus]

I would use a slightly different analysis.

Let's assume that you can't ever sell it. Either because no one wants to buy it, or because no one wants to pay more than $1 for it. And if you're planning to keep it for the rest of your life, then this seems like it's really going to happen anyway, since only your heirs will care about whether it's worth anything.

Based on that assumption, would you get sufficient enjoyment just by having it in your collection for the next few decades (or longer) that it makes your purchase worth it? If so, then it seems like you have your answer.

Typically when I'm paying a gigantic pile of cash for a piece of cardboard, it's because I've been questing for it for a long, long time, and there's a big hole in my collection where it belongs. And another one might not come along again for decades. So I take a deep breath, remind myself how important the piece is to my collection, and pull the trigger.

Great personal example is my recent pickup of a 1959 Bazooka Mays Complete Box. Thread here: https://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=332462

For me, part of the current calculus is that I've been keeping my powder dry for pieces that are truly that rare. I curtailed my purchases for pretty much all of last year, and focused on paying off the house. Now that I've invested heavily in other areas, I have a lot more flexibility to spend on my collection.

A key element for me is whether the piece is really that rare and difficult to find. Stuff that comes onto the market every few weeks or months? I can buy that stuff next year or next decade when the market has calmed down to what I feel is the right price. If I blow all of my cash today on pieces that I can get any time, then I won't be ready for the stuff that I really want. Stuff that's impossible to find? That's why I've been saving my pennies, so that I'm ready to pounce when those items come onto the market.

In terms of the financial future, I've posted my darkest fears here enough that I don't need to repeat them in great detail again. But an assumption that you can re-sell any time you want and only experience a small loss seems to be overlooking the very real possibility that the current market could tank hard. Particularly given the run up in prices over the last 2 years, with prices in just about every category rising 500% to 1000%, it seems folly to suggest that the market couldn't drop by 30-50% or more. But I seem to be in the minority in holding that opinion. Bottom line for me is I wouldn't base my decision around the expectation that you'll be able to resell it without taking a painful financial hit.

[fkm_bky]

Agree with most on here...you're likely going to regret not getting it in the future, especially since you're not over extending yourself financially.

There are several cards I wish I would have jumped on at the time (in the past and recent) that I know I won't really have a shot at again, and it still bothers me .

Best of luck with your decision!

Bill

[jingram058]

Originally Posted by fkm_bky

Agree with most on here...you're likely going to regret not getting it in the future, especially since you're not over extending yourself financially.

There are several cards I wish I would have jumped on at the time (in the past and recent) that I know I won't really have a shot at again, and it still bothers me .

Best of luck with your decision!

Bill

Agree completely with this.

[KCRfan1]

Tell us what you decide, and post a pic if you buy!

[frankbmd]

No offense to board members who have posted, but I don't rely on strangers' advice to help me spend my money.

[RCMcKenzie]

Frank, is this like when Bill Murray made that Somerset Maugham movie?


If I have any doubts, I pass. There are always other nice cards coming up later.

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by RCMcKenzie

Frank, is this like when Bill Murray made that Somerset Maugham movie?


If I have any doubts, I pass. There are always other nice cards coming up later.

What About Bob?

[riggs336]

Buy it. If, having bought it, you are incapacitated by remorse, then sell it. All your questions will have been answered.

[ValKehl]

I echo all of the great advice already posted. I would add that if you are married, I believe it would be wise to obtain your wife's blessing.

I know that I am overly cautious and conservative when it comes to spending what to me are larger sums of money, perhaps because my parents never had much and we lived very frugally (my dad was wiped out during the 1930's depression, and I don't think he ever recovered mentally). Hence, much to my regret, I have passed on several WaJo cards over the last 25 years that I wish I had in my WaJo collection today.

[bnorth]

This is what I do. If I have to try and justify a purchase it is time to turn around and run away.

[Andrew1975]

Some great responses above... I will only add that in my experience collecting prewar cards over the last two decades or so, my main regrets are passing on some cards that I now wish I had purchased. Particularly, a few that are very difficult to find.

[Smarti5051]

I prefer to think about it in investment terms. There is no question a sportscard is an "alternative investment." For investing, even if you are doing so responsibly with a mix of bonds, stocks and real estate, it is not considered unwise to have a small percentage of your portfolio in alternative investments like art, collectables, cryptocurrency, etc. for diversification. Of course, if 90% of your life savings and retirement is in shiny cards of current minor league ballplayers (or even rare vintage cards), you might want to rethink your portfolio holdings.

Will all of these investments go up in value? Of course not. But, historically, several have increased in value over time. On the flip side, a 40% loss on a Mickey Mantle rookie stings, but is not substantially MORE likely than a 40% drop in the stock market. And, in both cases, the market has recovered as time passes.

To me, vintage sportscards are like pieces of art. Plenty of financially savvy investors have a portion of their portfolio in fine art. The advise of art investors is to do your research, find something that speaks to you, and buy at a fair price. Let the market do what it is going to do while you enjoy your art.

The wife caveat is a big one. I look to mine to slow my impulse buys (but she always encourages the purchase). But, if your wife is concerned about your finances and would be more nervous or upset if you had more money tied up in your art, then there is no way you are going to enjoy it as much as you are going to not enjoy an upset and/or worried wife.

[Jstottlemire1]

Originally Posted by Andrew1975

Some great responses above... I will only add that in my experience collecting prewar cards over the last two decades or so, my main regrets are passing on some cards that I now wish I had purchased. Particularly, a few that are very difficult to find.

I am in the same lines of thinking as Andrew here. I’d go for it if pre war iconic player and a scarce card you won’t regret it.

[rjackson44]

Originally Posted by bnorth

This is what I do. If I have to try and justify a purchase it is time to turn around and run away.

ben lol

[notfast]

My thought process is if you can afford it but you are still hesitant, don’t pull the trigger.

Maybe that’s overly simple but it works for me.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by ValKehl

I echo all of the great advice already posted. I would add that if you are married, I believe it would be wise to obtain your wife's blessing.
.

Wise words here.

Due to just such a previous purchase, I now have some limits in place.

Under $1k, no limits.
$1k to $10k - wifely notification required, but after purchase is fine
Over $10k - wifely approval required prior to purchase

And in my case, she views any single purchase or payment in the aggregate. So just because I buy 30 pieces at auction doesn’t mean that I get to skirt the rules by dividing the total purchase by 30!

Edited to add: I did negotiate one exception. If I sell a piece first, then I can reinvest the proceeds with reckless disregard to any approval or notification requirements.